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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 221649
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1049 AM CST Sun Feb 22 2026
Valid 221700Z - 231200Z
...17z Update...
Minor changes were made to the prior outlook for the latest forecast
trends. Morning obs show the cold front progressing southward across
the FL Peninsula with isolated thunderstorms and some precipitation.
While initial humidity recoveries are excellent (dewpoints in the
70s F) the arrival of a very dry air mass and breezy north winds
later this afternoon will still support some fire-weather conditions
across the northern half of FL today. Breezy winds and poor humidity
recoveries will expand southward into drier fuels, continuing the
elevated fire-weather risk across the southern half of the State
overnight into Monday.
Across the Gulf Coast states, dry offshore flow has commenced in the
wake of the prior cold front. Northerly winds of 10-15, occasionally
gusting to 20 mph, are expected over much of the region and
especially across southern LA and MS. Elevated to locally critical
fire-weather conditions are expected across parts of far Southern TX
and southern LA. Elevated highlights have been expanded slightly in
both areas to where less rainfall and RH below 25% is expected for
much of this afternoon. See the prior outlook for additional
information.
..Lyons.. 02/22/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0115 AM CST Sun Feb 22 2026/
...Synopsis...
In the midst of a dry and breezy post-frontal airmass across much of
the Southeast/Gulf Coast, Elevated to locally Critical fire-weather
conditions are anticipated this afternoon across portions of Texas,
southeastern Louisiana/southern Mississippi, and much of the Florida
peninsula. While the meteorological conditions affect a much larger
area than the present highlights, recent wetting rainfall owing to
the aforementioned front will serve to temper fire-weather concerns
elsewhere.
...Mississippi/Louisiana...
While there is some ensemble spread in the range of expected
relative humidity values across southeastern Louisiana into far
southern Mississippi, meteorological conditions will support
Elevated to locally Critical fire-weather conditions owing to dry
and breezy offshore flow. Fuels in the area are very dry, and there
has been little in the way of recent wetting rainfall. The highest
likelihood for Critical conditions appears to be in far southeastern
Mississippi/Louisiana, where winds could reach 15-20 MPH. However,
uncertainty in the duration and magnitude of those winds precludes
additional highlights at this time.
...Southeast/Florida Peninsula...
Elevated to locally Critical fire-weather concerns are forecast this
afternoon across much of the Florida Peninsula. Though relative
humidity could be as low as 25%, with winds of around 15 MPH out of
the north-northwest, rainfall during the early morning hours should
serve to temper fuels. Given the precipitation and seemingly
localized nature of Critical conditions, additional highlights were
withheld (though considered).
...Far Southern Texas...
Relative humidity as low as 10-15% and winds around 15 MPH will
support Elevated fire-weather concerns across far southern Texas.
There has been little in the way of recent wetting rainfall, with
fuels guidance (ERCs) suggesting fuels are more than receptive to
wildfire ignition.
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 221942
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0142 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2026
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...
...Afternoon Update...
In the wake of the cold front moving south across the FL peninsula,
strong northerly winds and very dry surface conditions are expected
across parts of central and southern FL continuing from overnight
Sunday into Monday. Gusty north winds of 15-20 mph amid RH values
below 25% should support widespread elevated and critical
fire-weather concerns, especially across southern FL where fuels
remain the driest.
Northern portions of the critical area have been trimmed where prior
rainfall over the last 7 days exceeds 1 inch. Here fuels have likely
been tempered though short hour fuels could still support some
elevated fire-weather concerns.
Dry and breezy offshore winds will continue over much of the Gulf
Coast Monday. While weaker than the proceeding days, gusts of 10-15
mph with RH below 30% could allow for some locally elevated concerns
over southern LA/MS Monday.
Otherwise, only minor adjustments were made to the Elevated Area
across the southern High Plains for the latest forecast and fuels
guidance. See the previous discussion.
..Lyons.. 02/22/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0116 AM CST Sun Feb 22 2026/
...Synopsis...
Critical fire-weather conditions are forecast for much of the
Florida peninsula on Monday owing to a dry and breezy post-frontal
airmass overlapping drought-stricken fuels. Further west, dry and
breezy southerly flow in far eastern New Mexico into the
Texas/Oklahoma panhandles will support Elevated fire-weather
conditions.
...Florida Peninsula/Southern Georgia...
Relative humidity as low as 20%-25% (with poor overnight RH
recovery) and winds of 15-20 MPH out of the northwest will overlap
with drought-stricken fuels across much of the Florida peninsula on
Monday. This will result in widespread Critical fire-weather
conditions, particularly in central/southern Florida.
...Eastern New Mexico/Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles...
Dry and breezy southerly/southwesterly flow will develop across much
of eastern New Mexico into the TX/OK Panhandles on Monday afternoon.
Relative humidity as low as 10-15% and winds of 15-20 MPH are
forecast to overlap with previously cured fuels, supporting at least
Elevated fire-weather concerns.
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 222200
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0400 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2026
Valid 241200Z - 021200Z
Mid-level flow will remain amplified over the CONUS through the
extended forecast period. The predominant pattern will feature
troughing over the eastern US while strong mid-level flow continues
across the central US. Amplified ridging over the West will support
strong downslope flow and lee troughing over the southern and
central Plains. This will support continued Elevated to Critical
fire-weather conditions through this week and into next weekend.
...Central and Southern Plains States...
Strong northwest flow will develop over the Plains D3/Tuesday and
persist through much of next week ahead of a building ridge over the
West while broad troughing continues over the eastern US. Fire
weather conditions are forecast to become more widespread across the
southern Plains as a lee surface cyclone and associated pressure
gradient strengthens. West/northwesterly downslope winds of 15-25
mph are likely D3/Tuesday across eastern NM and the western TX
Panhandle amid RH minimums of 15-20%. With area fuels exceptionally
dry, widespread Elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are
probable.
Farther east into OK, TX and parts of KS/MO, surface winds will
remain southwesterly within a dry return flow regime east of the lee
low. While not as strong as farther west, gusts of 20-25 mph with
afternoon RH values below 30% will still support the potential for
elevated to locally critical fire-weather concerns amid
exceptionally dry fuels.
Broad fire-weather potential will continue over the southern and
possibly the central portions of the High Plains into
central/southern TX D4/Wednesday as the low moves eastward and
northwesterly downslope flow continues. Strong flow aloft will aid
in a broad area of 10-20 mph surface winds and higher gusts. RH
below 20% within areas of dry fuels appears likely to support at
least elevated and locally critical fire-weather concerns. This is
most likely over portions of the southern High Plains in NM and TX
where the best ensemble support currently exists. However, given the
strength of the flow aloft, some fire-weather potential is also
possible from WY and eastern CO into parts of KS/NE where fuels
remain dry.
Ensemble model spread begins to increase Day 5/Thursday and into
next weekend regarding the overlap of dry and windy conditions in
the wake of a cold front over the central US. Nonetheless, the
mid/upper-level pattern continues to favor enhanced mid-level flow
and dry conditions over much of the central US. This flow pattern
coupled with ongoing drought suggests some fire weather concerns
will remain possible across portions of the Plains late this week
and into next weekend despite limited details.
..Lyons.. 02/22/2026
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