ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 151652
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1152 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025
Valid 151700Z - 161200Z
Dry downslope flow east of the Sierra Crest along with dry fuels
will contribute to elevated fire weather conditions across far
western Nevada this afternoon. Single digit relative humidity along
with breezy southwest winds are expected across central/southern
Nevada and southwestern Utah. However, mid and upper slope
fuelscapes remain largely in green up phase, limiting fire spread
potential to lower elevation cured grasses with average fuel
loading.
..Williams.. 06/15/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025/
...Synopsis...
A belt of modest mid-level flow will be positioned over the Great
Basin during the day, and strong mixing during the afternoon is
expected to bring some of that flow to the surface, resulting in a
couple areas of fire weather concerns. An Elevated area was
maintained across parts of northwestern Nevada, where RH is expected
to be near 5-15% with 15-20 mph surface winds atop dry fuels.
Similar atmospheric conditions are expected across eastern Nevada
into west-central Utah, however fuels in this region are not as dry.
Therefore, have held off on introducing Elevated highlights in this
area for now.
U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 150656
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0156 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
NEVADA...SOUTHWESTERN UTAH...AND FAR NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA...
...Synopsis...
During the day on Monday, a mid-level shortwave trough is expected
to traverse California and into the Great Basin, and the surface
mass response to this feature will tighten the sea-level pressure
gradient across the area, resulting in strong surface winds. With
seasonably strong vertical mixing, RH in the Great Basin and Four
Corners region is expected to be around 5-15%. The best overlap of
windy conditions and dry fuels is expected to be across parts of
southeast Nevada, southwest Utah, and far northwest Arizona, where
Critical highlights have been added. In this area, winds are
expected to be near 20-30 mph with gusts as high as 35-40 mph
underneath the core of the mid-level jet associated with the
shortwave trough. Surrounding that Critical area, winds may be
weaker and fuels less receptive to fire spread. However, this still
warrants an Elevated area across parts of the Great Basin and Four
Corners region.
..Supinie.. 06/15/2025
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 142057
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0357 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025
Valid 161200Z - 221200Z
...Days 3-4/Monday-Tuesday...
On Day 3/Monday, a midlevel shortwave trough and related strong
midlevel westerly flow will track eastward across the Great Basin
during peak heating. Deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow
aloft and a tightening surface pressure gradient will lead to
critical fire-weather conditions from southern NV into southern UT.
Thereafter, the midlevel shortwave trough and strong flow aloft will
continue eastward across the Southwest on Day 4/Tuesday. Given a
warm/dry air mass and increasingly dry fuels, critical fire-weather
conditions are expected across parts of eastern AZ and
western/central NM.
...Days 6-8/Thursday-Saturday...
Deep-layer southwesterly flow will gradually strengthen across the
Great Basin ahead of an evolving large-scale trough. As these strong
winds overspread a deeply mixed air mass each afternoon, an
expansive area of elevated to critical fire-weather can be expected.
As the midlevel trough advances eastward across the Intermountain
West into the weekend, strong northerly winds will overspread CA,
supporting increasing fire-weather concerns over areas of receptive
fuels. Higher probabilities may eventually be needed during this
time frame as the overall timing/evolution of the large-scale trough
becomes more clear.
..Weinman.. 06/14/2025