U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 291635
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1135 AM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024
Valid 291700Z - 301200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...
The elevated area was trimmed in parts of southern Nebraska based on
the observed frontal position. As the surface low deepens, locally
elevated conditions may occur in these areas, but the duration
should be quite brief. Elsewhere, the forecast remains on track. See
the previous discussion for additional details.
..Wendt.. 10/29/2024
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0204 AM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024/
...Synopsis...
Ahead of a deepening upper trough over the western US, strong
southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the Rockies and adjacent
High Plains. A lee low and trailing surface trough will encourage
strong downslope winds of 20-30 mph across eastern CO/NM and parts
of western KS, TX and OK. Farther east, strong southerly surface
winds and dry conditions will be in place over parts of the Midwest.
Widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are likely.
...High Plains...
As the upper trough approaches from the west, mid-level flow will
continue to intensify over the southern Rockies and High Plains. The
strong lee low over eastern CO will continue to deepen and shift
eastward with strong southwesterly surface winds across the warm
sector. Dry downslope winds of 25-35 mph and RH values below 20%
will support several hours of widespread elevated to critical
fire-weather conditions. The greatest overlap of critical
meteorological conditions and receptive fuels appears to be across
parts of eastern CO and far western KS. However, given the strength
of the low-level wind fields and low humidity, critical conditions
may occur as far south as parts of the TX/OK Panhandles for a few
hours.
Locally elevated fire-weather conditions may also occur across parts
of central/northern NM closer to the upper low. Strong flow aloft
will bolster surface winds to around 15-20 MPH with low RH. While
fuels are somewhat mixed here, at least a few hours of locally
elevated fire-weather conditions are possible before the cold front
passes.
...Midwest...
Elevated fire-weather conditions are possible in parts of the
Midwest ahead of the deepening surface low over the Plains. Models
show a drier pocket of air moving over parts of central IL and IN by
this afternoon. Fuels are near record dry and winds will be strong
with southerly gusts of 15-20 mph. Though drier than normal,
low-level humidity is only expected to be around 30%. Uncertainty
remains quite large due to potential cloud cover and the marginal RH
values, but a few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are
possible given expected strong winds and dry fuels.
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 291835
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0135 PM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024
Valid 301200Z - 311200Z
No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. Potential for
critical fire weather remains within parts of the eastern Texas
Panhandle into far western Oklahoma. While high-resolution ensemble
guidance does show critical conditions during the afternoon, these
conditions generally translate eastward with time leaving overall
duration in doubt. Further, continued moisture flux into the region
(and better overnight RH recovery) increases uncertainty in fine
fuel dryness. Locally critical conditions are probable, but
confidence in sustained critical conditions is only low to medium.
Trends will continue to be monitored. See the previous discussion
for more details.
..Wendt.. 10/29/2024
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0206 AM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024/
...Synopsis...
An upper trough will begin to eject over the central Plains
Wednesday as strong flow aloft linger over the southern Rockies. A
lee low over southeastern CO will deepen slightly before moving
northeast along a cold front across KS and OK. Dry and breezy
conditions are likely over parts of TX and western OK, as well as
the Midwest and Great Lakes. Elevated to near-critical fire-weather
conditions are possible.
...Southern Plains...
Downslope winds are again expected to be strong across parts of the
southern Plains Wednesday. Gusts of 20-25 mph are possible behind a
lee trough/dryline across western OK and the TX Panhandle. With RH
values of 15-20% widespread elevated to near-critical conditions are
possible over parts of the southern High Plains. Sustained critical
conditions are also possible, mainly over the eastern TX Panhandle,
but current model guidance suggests these may be brief. Thus,
critical highlights could be needed in future updates if model
consensus shows longer duration surface winds greater than 25 mph.
...Midwest and Great Lakes...
A second day of dry and breezy conditions could support locally
elevated fire-weather concerns across parts of the Midwest and
Great Lakes Wednesday. Southerly winds of 15-20 mph are possible
ahead of the surface low and cold front. East and north of the
deeper surface moisture, RH values should be below 35%. While not
overly dry, and likely modulated by mid and high-level clouds, RH
values should be dry enough to support some threat for fire danger
given the gusty winds and extremely dry fuels.
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 292029
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0329 PM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024
Valid 311200Z - 061200Z
A progressive, quasi-zonal, upper-level flow pattern is expected
through the remainder of this week across the CONUS. By the weekend,
another upper-level trough is expected to dig southward along the
West Coast and then shift into the central U.S. by early/mid next
week. Cooler weather and precipitation are expected for many areas
over the coming week.
The overall potential for critical fire weather appears relatively
low through the extended period. As a cold front moves through the
Northeast/Mid-Atlantic on Friday, dry/windy post-frontal conditions
may lead to an increase in fire danger. Though fuels remain dry in
many locations, there is enough potential for precipitation to
preclude highlights. The upper-level and surface patterns this
Sunday/Monday would also support downslope/offshore winds in
northern and southern California. However, potential for cooler
temperatures and precipitation are again too high for any
substantial fire concern along with the late-week upper-level
trough.
..Wendt.. 10/29/2024
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