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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 151631
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1131 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024
Valid 151700Z - 161200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...
Morning observed soundings within the High Plains region showed
shallow moisture along with a shallow temperature inversion. This
should allow surface temperatures to rapidly rise into the afternoon
along with moisture mixing out quite efficiently. Widespread
critical fire weather is expected today. Extremely critical
conditions appear probable at least on a localized basis.
Within the Missouri Valley, morning surface observations already
show ongoing elevated to borderline critical conditions, which is
ahead of even the drier/windier deterministic model solutions. Given
pockets of receptive fuels, particularly with southwestern extent,
several hours of elevated to locally critical conditions are
possible. RH should eventually increase from southwest to northeast
as the warm front lifts northward with time.
..Wendt.. 04/15/2024
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024/
...Synopsis...
An upper low and strong jet streak are forecast to intensify and
eject eastward over the Great Plains today and tonight. A lee low
should rapidly deepen over central High Plains with surface pressure
falls and the strong flow aloft bolstering strong surface winds over
much of the Plains. Hot and dry surface conditions atop drying fuels
will allow for widespread critical and localized extremely critical
fire-weather conditions.
...Southern and central High Plains...
As the main upper low phases with the subtropical jet, 70+ kt
mid-level flow will shift eastward and cross the Rockies late in the
afternoon and evening. The rapidly deepening lee low will force
strong west/southwest flow downslope over the High Plains behind a
dryline forecast to mix near 100 degrees west. Sustained surface
winds of 25-40 mph are possible behind the dryline given the strong
pressure falls and enhanced momentum transfer from increasing flow
aloft. Minimum RH values are also expected to be critically low,
falling to 10-15% over much of the High Plains. Widespread dry and
receptive fuels, combined with strong wind gusts and very dry
surface conditions, will support ubiquitous high-end critical
fire-weather concerns from eastern CO and western KS, into parts of
the Panhandles, and eastern NM/west TX.
Localized extremely critical conditions also appear possible as
strong winds continue to increase into the late afternoon and
evening hours. The most likely corridors for localized extreme
conditions will exist from southeastern CO into parts of western KS
and the northwestern Panhandles, and across parts of the southwest
TX. Here, the overlap of the strongest flow aloft and single digit
RH is possible for a few hours late in the afternoon. Uncertainty on
the duration of extreme conditions remains too large to introduce
any Extremely Critical areas. Considerable uncertainty also exists
on the positioning of the dryline and the amount of mid and
high-level cloud cover. Will maintain a broader Elevated area to
capture the potential for more brief fire-weather conditions should
the dryline mix farther east.
...Missouri Valley...
Locally elevated fire weather conditions are possible in parts of
northwestern Iowa into southeast South Dakota this afternoon. Dry
air ahead of the warm front and gusty winds will increase prior to
precipitation arriving during the evening/overnight. With these
dry/windy conditions occurring primarily over marginally dry fuels
and over a limited duration, the threat is likely to remain
localized.
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 151843
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0143 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
Modest expansion of the Elevated area was made on account of recent
guidance. Locally critical conditions are possible in areas of
terrain enhancement in New Mexico. There is also some possibility
that elevated fire weather may occur farther east into the Texas
Rolling Plains and western Oklahoma. This threat will be dependent
on where and how much precipitation falls Monday evening/overnight.
For now, highlights will be withheld.
..Wendt.. 04/15/2024
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0204 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024/
...Synopsis...
As the upper low ejects eastward over the Plains and into the
Midwest, strong flow aloft will gradually weaken from west to east.
The associated surface low and trailing front/dryline will move
eastward as a secondary cold front moves in from the north. Gusty
winds and low humidity will remain possible over parts of the
southern and central Plains. However, the duration and coverage of
critical conditions is uncertain.
...Southern High Plains to the Texas Big Bend...
As the strong upper low lifts away to the northeast early
D2/Tuesday, winds aloft will slowly diminish across the southern
High Plains through the day. Still, downslope west/northwesterly
flow will favor dry and warm surface conditions over much of eastern
NM and west TX. Surface wind gusts of 15-20 mph are expected through
part of the day along with RH below 20%. While not overly robust, a
few hours of elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions
still appear likely given widespread dry fuels.
Localized fire-weather conditions may also briefly develop farther
east into portions of central/eastern KS Tuesday afternoon. Gusty
winds and lower humidity will remain possible, ahead of the
secondary cold front moving south. However, the limited duration and
uncertainty on precipitation from the previous day suggest this
threat will be brief and localized.
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 152044
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0344 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024
Valid 171200Z - 231200Z
A shortwave trough lifting into the Great Lakes region mid to late
this week will continue to weaken while another shortwave will pivot
through the northern Rockies into the northern Plains by late in the
week. The secondary trough is forecast to intensify across the Great
Lakes into the Northeast during the weekend. Across the southern
tier of the U.S., flow aloft will remain relatively zonal through
the period. At the surface, a weak lee cyclone is expected to
develop in southeast Colorado on Wednesday. As this moves eastward
along with the upper trough to the north, cooler air will filter
into the southern Plains. A secondary surge of cooler air will push
into the northern Gulf during the weekend.
...Southern High Plains...
Elevated to perhaps locally critical conditions appear possible as
the southeastern Colorado low develops on Wednesday afternoon. Winds
of 15-20 mph will overlap very low RH of around 10-15%. Fire weather
concerns will be somewhat localized near the terrain to the
southwest of the surface low.
...Western/Central New Mexico...
As the back door cold front pushes against the southern Rockies late
this week into the weekend, generally dry conditions are expected
across the Southwest. As fuels are continuing to dry within New
Mexico, it is possible some fire weather risk will exist for central
and western parts of the state. This would most likely occur on
Saturday when a low-amplitude trough approaches from the west. Model
and fuel trends will continue to be monitored.
..Wendt.. 04/15/2024
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