ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 241807

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0107 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

   Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW
   MEXICO...SOUTHEAST COLORADO...EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS...FAR
   WESTERN TEXAS...WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE...

   The previous forecast remains on track. Latest guidance consensus
   continues to show Critical to Extremely Critical meteorological
   surface conditions developing within a post-dryline environment
   tomorrow (Thursday afternoon). Behind the dryline, RH may drop below
   10 percent in some spots amid widespread 25-35 mph sustained
   westerly surface winds (with higher gusts) for several hours,
   especially in central to eastern New Mexico. Fuels are at least
   modestly receptive to fire spread, though ERCs still appear to be
   below (and in some places, well below) the 90th percentile,
   precluding the addition of Extremely Critical highlights.

   ..Squitieri.. 04/24/2024

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024/

   ...Synopsis...
   A midlevel trough will cross the Southwest during the day, while a
   related 60-70 kt southwesterly midlevel jet overspreads the southern
   into central High Plains. In response, a lee cyclone will rapidly
   deepen over eastern CO/western KS, while a southward-extending
   dryline sharpens over parts of west TX. This large-scale pattern
   evolution will favor an expansive area of high-end critical
   fire-weather conditions across the southern into central High Plains
   during the afternoon. 

   ...Southern into Central High Plains...
   Behind the dryline, strong downslope warming/drying and diurnal
   heating will result in a deep/dry boundary layer, characterized by
   surface temperatures in the 80s and single-digit to lower-teens RH.
   Here, a tightening surface pressure gradient peripheral to the
   deepening lee cyclone, coupled with mixing into the strong
   deep-layer southwesterly flow, will yield 30 mph sustained
   southwesterly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 45 mph) across
   eastern NM into southeastern CO. While confidence is high in the
   development of these extremely critical meteorological conditions, a
   potential lack of abundant and very dry fuels precludes Extremely
   Critical highlights at this time.

      

   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 241945

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0245 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

   Valid 261200Z - 021200Z

   A pair of mid-level troughs will traverse the southern Plains Friday
   into this weekend, supporting surface cyclone development and a
   trailing dryline surging eastward across the southern High Plains
   each day. Critically dry and windy conditions are expected, with 70
   percent Critical probabilities maintained for portions of the
   southern High Plains where dry and windy conditions will overlap
   through much of the afternoon for both Friday and Saturday. By
   Sunday, the second mid-level trough will eject into the middle
   Mississippi Valley region, prompting some weakening of the surface
   winds behind the dryline over the southern High Plains, where only
   40 percent Critical probabilities have been maintained. Thereafter,
   upper-level ridging will set in over the Plains states, with dry
   conditions persisting over the southern High Plains. Another
   mid-level trough will impinge on the Interior West by the middle of
   next week. Dry and windy conditions should overspread the region,
   though questions remain regarding fuel receptiveness, precluding the
   addition of Critical probabilities.

   ..Squitieri.. 04/24/2024