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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 120804
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0204 AM CST Mon Jan 12 2026
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
...Synopsis...
Broad troughing is forecast to persist over the eastern US with high
pressure building to the West. This will favor continued
northwesterly flow over much of the CONUS. A stronger shortwave
trough within the flow aloft will pass over the northern and central
Rockies this afternoon. This, along with a strong surface pressure
gradient will boost westerly low-level flow across the region,
supporting an increase in fire-weather concerns.
...Central and Northern High Plains...
Strong downslope winds are expected across much of the Rockies and
adjacent High Plains today as upper-level ridging rapidly builds
over the West. A shortwave trough embedded within strong
west/northwesterly flow will move southeastward overspreading an
unusually warm and dry airmass for January. West-northwest winds of
20-30 mph with higher gusts will combine with relative humidity in
the 20-30% range and dry fine fuels to facilitate an increased fire
danger across lower elevations of central MT and northern WY.
Farther south winds are expected to be somewhat weaker and displaced
from the stronger flow aloft. Still, strong westerly pressure
gradients and drier surface conditions could promote a few hours of
locally elevated fire-weather conditions over portions of CO/WY/NE
where fine fuels are very dry.
...Southern Plains...
Across the Southern Plains, dry southwest flow will likely support
dry and breezy conditions over parts of OK/TX. Afternoon RH values
will likely fall below 20%, though winds will be generally light.
While recent rainfall has tempered fuels to some degree, fine fuels
remain fairly dry and, some localized fire-weather concerns are
possible.
..Lyons.. 01/12/2026
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 120807
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0207 AM CST Mon Jan 12 2026
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
Broad northwesterly flow will persist over much of the CONUS as
eastern US troughing continues to intensify. A stronger shortwave
within the broad troughing will move southward over the central US
Tuesday. An accompanying cold front will also move southward with
strong surface winds along and behind it.
..Central High Plains...
As the upper trough over the East deepens, flow aloft will turn more
northerly ahead of the strong shortwave trough. This, along with the
surface cold front will support strong northerly/northwesterly
surface winds across parts of WY northern CO and NE Tuesday. At
least brief dry and breezy conditions are possible in this region
owing to the downslope winds. Currently, RH values appear only
modest owing to cloud cover and rapidly decreasing temperatures.
However, very dry fine fuels and in some dry/breezy conditions could
support brief locally elevated fire-weather potential Tuesday
afternoon before diminishing overnight.
...Southern Plains...
A period of dry southwesterly flow is forecast to develop across the
southern Plains D2/Tuesday as upper troughing intensifies over the
northeastern US. Winds are not forecast to be overly strong, but
gusts around 15 mph are possible. These winds, overlapping with low
RH of 15-20% during the afternoon could support some localized
fire-weather concerns. However, recent rainfall should preclude
broader potential.
...Southeast...
Dry conditions will likely persist over the Southeast as surface
high pressure settles south of the deepening low in the wake of an
earlier cold front. While strong winds appear unlikely, RH values
below 35% and drier fuels could support some brief localized
fire-weather concerns, especially across parts of coastal GA and the
Carolinas where little rainfall has occurred recently.
..Lyons.. 01/12/2026
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 112146
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0346 PM CST Sun Jan 11 2026
Valid 131200Z - 191200Z
...Synopsis...
A more amplified upper-level pattern will evolve across CONUS by
midweek with pronounced north-to-south meridional flow developing
across the central U.S. though the weekend. Several cold fronts
should progress across the eastern U.S. with largely dry conditions
expected in the High Plains and West. Colder temperatures and likely
precipitation across the eastern CONUS should mitigate broader fire
weather threat for the latter part of the week. Dry post-frontal
flow and subsequent dry return flow events could allow for increased
fire weather threat across portions of the central/southern Plains
where dry fuels align.
...Day 4/Wednesday - Southern Plains...
Breezy and dry conditions behind a cold front are expected across
the Southern Plains on Day 4/Wednesday. An increased fire weather
threat is most likely across portions of central TX, where rainfall
deficits and dry fuels continue. Precipitation associated with an
upper-level low impacting southwest TX Day 3/Tuesday should also
largely avoid north-central and northwestern TX, supporting more
receptive fuels. Some forecast uncertainty remains in level of RH
reductions Wednesday afternoon so critical probabilities were
maintained at 40% for portions of northwest TX and the Rolling
Plains.
...Day 5-8/Thursday-Sunday...
An amplified ridge should remain intact over the West Coast through
the weekend while deeper troughing east of the Continental Divide
promotes intrusions of colder, generally more benign fire weather
conditions into the eastern contiguous U.S. Another robust cold
front moves into the central/southern Plains Days
5-6/Thursday-Friday, but uncertainty in timing in addition to
increased cloud cover and potential light precipitation could
mitigate a broader fire weather threat across the region.
..Williams.. 01/11/2026
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