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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 200548

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1248 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025

   Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

   ...Synopsis...
   An upper-level trough will begin to sag into northern California and
   the northern Great Basin today. A surface trough will develop from
   the Northwest into the central Great Basin.

   Elevated to locally critical conditions are possible from northern
   Nevada into the Snake River Plain and western Wyoming. RH will be
   lowest in Nevada where 10-20% is expected. Farther north and east,
   15-20% will be more common. Surface wind speeds will generally range
   from 15-20 mph in most locations. With some terrain enhancement in
   the Snake River Plain, there is some potential for briefly stronger
   winds. This location has a greater probability for sustained
   critical conditions, though ensemble guidance continues to suggest
   it will remain quite localized.

   ..Wendt.. 07/20/2025
      

U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook


   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 200549

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1249 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025

   Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST NEVADA...

   ...Synopsis...
   The upper-level trough in the Northwest will continue to dig
   southward through the day on Monday. Some increase in the mid-level
   jet is expected to occur from northwest Nevada into the northern
   Rockies. A surface low will deepen in the northern Great Basin.

   ...Central/northern Great Basin into western Wyoming...
   A broad area of elevated fire weather conditions are expected across
   these regions. Surface winds will reach 15-20 mph in most locations,
   though areas of higher speeds are possible in terrain-favored areas.
   Single digit RH is possible in parts of central/northern Nevada, but
   15-20% will be more common elsewhere.

   Critical conditions are expected along the Sierra Front in northwest
   Nevada. Here, the mid-level jet will enhance winds aloft during the
   afternoon. While the surface low will not be overly deep, the
   combination of these factors will support winds around 20 mph near
   the terrain. Gusts to around 30 mph are also possible. There is some
   potential for high level clouds to limit RH reductions. Even with
   some of these marginal factors, wind speeds should be sufficient to
   promote rapid fire spread in fuels that are very dry (ERCs above
   90th percentile).

   ..Wendt.. 07/20/2025


U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook


   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 192116

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0416 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025

   Valid 211200Z - 271200Z

   A positive-tilt mid/upper-level trough, with enhanced mid-level flow
   along it's base, is forecast to remain across the Pacific Northwest
   Day 3/Monday. Thereafter, the trough is forecast to eject across the
   northern Rockies and into Canada through midweek. Meanwhile, a
   portion of the trough is forecast to become cutoff off the
   California coast Day 5/Wednesday through perhaps Day 7/Friday before
   ejecting northeastward, with a large-scale trough returning across
   the Western United States next weekend.  

   ...Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday: Wind/RH...
   Mid-level winds are forecast to increase over the northern Great
   Basin Day 3/Monday as the aforementioned trough impinges on the
   area. A rather broad area of elevated fire weather conditions are
   likely, with critical fire weather conditions most likely across
   portions of the Snake River Plain in Idaho, along the Nevada,
   Oregon, and Idaho border, and across western/northwestern Nevada and
   adjacent portions of California where wind speeds are forecast to be
   strongest. Though, at this time, critical fire weather conditions
   appear too brief/spotty to introduce greater probabilities. 

   Dry and breezy conditions are forecast to continue Day 4/Tuesday
   across much of the Great Basin. Though, relaxing mid-level winds and
   reduced surface pressure gradients should limit widespread fire
   weather concerns.

   ...Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday and Day 6/Thursday - Day 8/Saturday
   : Dry Thunderstorms...
   Dry thunderstorms are possible Day 3/Monday into Day 4/Tuesday
   across portions of the northern Great Basin, Northwest, and northern
   Rockies, as increasing moisture associated with the aforementioned
   trough overspreads the area. While forecast guidance suggests
   precipitable water values may be relatively high (0.8 - 1+ inch),
   somewhat fast-moving storm motions and critically receptive fuels
   suggest a mix of wet/dry modes. At this time, uncertainty remains
   too large to introduce probabilities for dry thunderstorms.

   Dry thunderstorm potential may return across the western United
   States by Day 6/Thursday as the aforementioned cutoff low begins to
   move onshore. Though, at this time, forecast guidance differs on the
   timing/evolution of the low, which reduces confidence in timing and
   coverage of dry thunderstorms.

   ..Elliott.. 07/19/2025
      




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