U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 240628
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0128 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
A low-latitude midlevel trough, accompanied by strong southwesterly
flow aloft, will move into the Southwest today. As this strong flow
overspreads a deep/dry boundary layer across the region, dry/breezy
conditions can be expected during the afternoon. While locally
elevated fire-weather conditions are possible, fuels generally do
not support large-fire spread at this time -- precluding highlights
across the area.
..Weinman.. 04/24/2024
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 240700
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0200 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
...Synopsis...
A midlevel trough will cross the Southwest during the day, while a
related 60-70 kt southwesterly midlevel jet overspreads the southern
into central High Plains. In response, a lee cyclone will rapidly
deepen over eastern CO/western KS, while a southward-extending
dryline sharpens over parts of west TX. This large-scale pattern
evolution will favor an expansive area of high-end critical
fire-weather conditions across the southern into central High Plains
during the afternoon.
...Southern into Central High Plains...
Behind the dryline, strong downslope warming/drying and diurnal
heating will result in a deep/dry boundary layer, characterized by
surface temperatures in the 80s and single-digit to lower-teens RH.
Here, a tightening surface pressure gradient peripheral to the
deepening lee cyclone, coupled with mixing into the strong
deep-layer southwesterly flow, will yield 30 mph sustained
southwesterly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 45 mph) across
eastern NM into southeastern CO. While confidence is high in the
development of these extremely critical meteorological conditions, a
potential lack of abundant and very dry fuels precludes Extremely
Critical highlights at this time.
..Weinman.. 04/24/2024
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 232024
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0324 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024
Valid 251200Z - 011200Z
An active fire weather pattern will become situated over the
southern High Plains late this week through the weekend. The passage
of multiple mid-level troughs will encourage surface cyclone
development and the eastward surge of a dryline each day
Thursday-Sunday along the southern High Plains. Critically dry and
windy conditions will become situated behind the dryline each day,
with 70% Critical probabilities maintained where very windy and dry
surface conditions will coincide for several hours during the
afternoon. Furthermore, locally Extremely Critical surface winds/RH
cannot be ruled out over portions of eastern New Mexico into far
western Texas for Day 3/Thursday or Day 5/Saturday, when the core
mid-level jet stream from both upper-level troughs overspread the
region. By early next week, the ejection of these mid-level troughs,
in favor of upper ridging, will encourage a more quiescent fire
weather pattern over the southern High Plains, though dry surface
conditions should persist.
..Squitieri.. 04/23/2024
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