ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 171640
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1140 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025
Valid 171700Z - 181200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR WESTERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR EASTERN
ARIZONA...
No significant changes in the previous forecast were needed.
Enhanced mid-level flow associated with an upper-level short wave
trough in conjunction with a deep/well-mixed boundary layer will
promote a broad fire weather threat across the Southwest through
today. Relative humidity at or below 10 percent and west winds of
20-25 mph atop dry fuels will support Critical fire weather
conditions across far eastern Arizona into western New Mexico and
Rio Grande Valley.
..Williams.. 06/17/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1256 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025/
...Synopsis...
A midlevel trough will move eastward from the Great Basin into the
central Rockies today. Within the base of the trough, a belt of
moderate deep-layer westerly flow will overspread the Southwest into
the southern Rockies. In response to the eastward-moving trough, a
lee cyclone will deepen over the central/southern High Plains, while
a southward-extending dryline sharpens over the southern High
Plains.
...Western NM and eastern AZ...
In the wake of poor overnight recoveries, strong diurnal
heating/mixing of a dry antecedent air mass west of the dryline will
yield widespread single-digit RH across much of AZ and NM during the
afternoon. Substantial boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced
deep-layer flow, coupled with a tightening pressure gradient
peripheral to the lee cyclone, will support 20-25 mph sustained
westerly surface winds amid the low RH and hot surface temperatures.
This combination will favor critical fire-weather conditions atop
dry fuels in western NM and far eastern AZ.
U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 171930
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
Accelerating mid-level westerly flow in advance of an upper-level
short wave will support breezy downslope flow across the Columbia
Basin. Despite a slight intrusion of Pacific moisture, daytime
relative humidity should still fall into the 20-25 percent range.
Coupled with breezy west winds and dry fuels, Elevated highlights
were maintained for the Columbia Basin where dry fuels will support
fire spread.
..Williams.. 06/17/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1257 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025/
...Synopsis...
Preceding a deep midlevel low west of British Columbia, a belt of
strong midlevel westerly flow will overspread the Cascades. As a
result, locally dry/breezy downslope flow will develop in the
Columbia Basin during the afternoon. Around 15 mph sustained
westerly surface winds (higher in the Cascade Gaps) and 20-25
percent RH will favor elevated fire-weather conditions.
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 172151
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0451 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025
Valid 191200Z - 251200Z
...Day 3-4/Thursday-Friday...
An upper-level trough will begin to enter the Pacific Northwest Day
3/Thursday while upper-level ridging shifts eastward into the
Plains. Increased mid-level flow atop a dry/well-mixed boundary
layer will bring an expansive fire weather threat much of the Great
Basin and Colorado Plateau in the form of breezy southwest winds and
low relative humidity. A mid-level wind maxima rounding the southern
periphery of an upper-level low then pushing into the Pacific
Northwest will support even stronger southwest winds of 20-30 mph
(locally higher in favored downslope regions) across much of
central/southern Utah, northern Arizona and far western Colorado as
well as northwestern Nevada where fuels have become increasingly
supportive of wildfire spread. 70 percent probability of Critical
fire weather conditions have been maintained and expanded within
these areas.
...Day 5-8/Saturday-Tuesday...
The warm, dry and breezy conditions supportive of wildfire growth in
dry fuels will shift southeastward towards the upper Colorado River
Basin and northern Arizona by the weekend. Magnitude of winds will
wane by early next week as mid-level flow relaxes and shifts
northeastward. However, the combination of increasingly dry fuels,
drought and lack of rainfall will support an ongoing fire weather
threat through Day 8/Tuesday across much of southeastern Utah,
northern Arizona and far western Colorado.
...California Central Valley...
Dry, post-frontal northerly flow along with low relative humidity
and cured grasses will support at least an Elevated fire weather
threat on Day 5/Saturday across the Central Valley.
..Williams.. 06/17/2025