ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 251659
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1159 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025
Valid 251700Z - 261200Z
...Appalachians...
Some expansion has been made to the Elevated area in the southern
Appalachians vicinity, based on the latest observational and
guidance trends. Sustained winds approaching 15 mph at times
combined with RH near/below 30% will result in elevated to locally
critical conditions. See the previous discussion below for more
information.
...Northern Plains...
An Elevated area has been added from southwest ND into eastern SD.
Dry and breezy conditions (with winds near/above 20 mph and RH
dropping to near/below 30%) will result in elevated to locally
critical conditions where fuels are dry.
..Dean.. 03/25/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0213 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025/
...Synopsis...
A broad upper cyclone will remain over eastern US as ridging
intensifies across the east today and tonight. Strong northwesterly
flow aloft will overspread much of the central US and Appalachians.
At the surface, a weak cold front will move south over the Plains,
as a secondary front moves over the central and southern
Appalachians. Dry conditions and occasional gusty winds could
promote some elevated fire-weather potential.
...Northern Plains...
Behind the front over the central US, gusty northwest winds are
possible across parts of SD and NE. A few hours of dry and breezy
conditions will be possible with RH below 30% and wind gusts of
20-25 mph. While the overlap of dry and breezy conditions will be
brief, area fuels are dry and could support some localized
fire-weather risk.
...Appalachians...
Ahead of the cold front moving over the eastern US and Appalachians,
a few hours of gusty winds are possible this afternoon. Pre-frontal
winds may increase to 15-20 mph with RH values falling to near 25%.
The highest confidence for more sustained elevated conditions
appears to be across parts of western NC/SC where winds and lower
humidity may better overlap with recent fire activity and drier
fuels given recent rainfall.
U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 251959
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0259 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
...Appalachians...
An Elevated area has been added for areas near/east of the Blue
Ridge into parts of the Carolina Piedmont. Post-frontal downslope
flow will result in RH dropping to near critical thresholds, with
sustained wind speeds approaching 15 mph (with stronger gusts).
Light to locally moderate rainfall on D1/Tuesday may result in a
local minimum of threat across parts of central VA, within the
larger Elevated area.
...New Mexico and vicinity...
A small southwestward expansion has been made to the Isolated Dry
Thunderstorm area, but otherwise the previous reasoning remains
valid. See the previous discussion below for more details.
..Dean.. 03/25/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0215 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025/
...Synopsis...
Large-scale ridging will continue to amplify over the western US as
a subtle southern stream shortwave trough slides underneath the
ridge. Weak ascent will overspread parts of the Southwest as modest
moisture returns to the west. This may support isolated dry
thunderstorms atop dry fuels in parts of the Southwest.
...Parts of NM...
As the weak upper-level trough moves over the Southwest, modest
ascent and easterly upslope flow is expected to promote isolated to
widely scattered showers and thunderstorms from central NM to
western TX. At the western extent of the moist plume, PWAT values
less than 0.75 inches will overlap with sufficiently steep low and
mid-level lapse rates to support high-based storms with poor
precipitation efficiency. Dry lightning strikes appear likely over
very receptive fuels given the high-based nature of any convection
that forms. An Isolated Dry Thunder area has been added across
western and central NM where best overlap of thunderstorm potential
and dry fuels should exist for several hours Wed.
...Appalachians...
Another day of dry conditions is expected across the southern
Appalachians Wed. High pressure will gradually shift eastward with
downslope flow likely across parts of western VA and the Carolinas.
While surface winds may not be overly strong (generally less than 15
mph), isolated gusts near 20 mph are possible. In addition,
afternoon RH should fall below 25%. Model guidance shows
considerable spread regarding the spatial and temporal coverage of
any elevated fire weather conditions that may develop. A few hours
of locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible, but
uncertain.
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 252140
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0440 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025
Valid 271200Z - 021200Z
...D3/Thursday: Parts of NM...
10% dry thunderstorm probabilities have been maintained across parts
of NM for D3/Thursday. Isolated diurnal storm development will again
be possible across much of NM into west TX. Storms along the western
periphery of the deeper moist plume are unlikely to produce more
than light precipitation, with potential for lightning strikes to
result in fire starts within a region of dry and receptive fuels.
...D3/Thursday: Parts of FL...
Relatively dry conditions are expected to persist across parts of
the FL Peninsula on Thursday, within the influence of an offshore
surface ridge. Minimum RH values may drop below 35%, especially
across southeast portions of the peninsula. Winds are likely to
remain rather modest, but locally elevated conditions will be
possible during the afternoon and early evening.
...D4/Friday - D8/Tuesday: Parts of NM into west TX and vicinity...
While predictability regarding the surface and upper-air pattern
gradually decreases with time into early next week, it appears
likely that multiple shortwaves will move across the southern
Rockies into the Plains beginning on D4/Friday. 40% critical
probabilities were maintained for Friday/Saturday and added for
Sunday for parts of NM into west TX. The magnitude and north/east
extent of critical potential remains uncertain this weekend, and
will depend on the timing and amplitude of any ejecting shortwaves.
For D7/Monday into D8/Tuesday, confidence remains too low to
introduce critical probabilities, though elevated to potentially
critical conditions may persist or develop into early next week,
depending on the evolution of the pattern and persistent
mid/upper-level troughing across the Southwest.
..Dean.. 03/25/2025
