ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 141848

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1248 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024

   Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

   The ongoing forecast for elevated fire-weather conditions tomorrow
   (Friday) is still on track across portions of New England (see
   previous discussion below).  The area was slightly expanded to the
   north and south where meteorological conditions will be similar to
   the rest of the area, and fuels are also abnormally dry (i.e., ERC
   values exceeding the 90th percentile).

   Over portions of eastern Arizona and western New Mexico, strong
   south-southwesterly surface winds and low RH are likely during the
   afternoon hours, but fuels will likely not be receptive for
   large-fire spread (i.e., ERC values generally below the 60th
   percentile).

   ..Jirak.. 11/14/2024

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CST Thu Nov 14 2024/

   ...Synopsis...
   ...New England...
   Post-frontal offshore flow will return across the New England coast
   on Friday. Relative humidity reductions to around 30-40 percent will
   be possible with northwesterly breezes around 10-15 mph. Given
   drought conditions and very little recent rainfall, Elevated fire
   weather concerns will be likely with fuels in the region remaining
   receptive to fire spread. 

   ...Southern Arizona and Western New Mexico...
   A deepening trough will bring increasing westerly flow aloft and
   strong southwesterly surface winds across portions of Arizona and
   New Mexico. Relative humidity reductions to around 10-15 percent
   will overlap sustained winds around 15-20 mph. Portions of
   southeastern Arizona and western New Mexico have seen less recent
   rain/snowfall, with potential for some drying of fine fuels
   possible. Overall, ERCs are largely at or below the 50th percentile.

      

   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 142144

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0344 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024

   Valid 161200Z - 221200Z

   The upper-level pattern is forecast to be active across the CONUS
   during the extended period.  On Saturday, the pattern will amplify
   as a trough deepens over the West, and a ridge builds over the
   eastern CONUS.  The trough and associated surface low pressure
   system will advance northward over the central CONUS bringing
   precipitation through Tuesday before slowly meandering eastward on
   Wednesday and Thursday.  Meanwhile, northwesterly flow aloft over
   the West on Tuesday and Wednesday will promote surface high
   development over the Great Basin, favoring offshore flow for
   southern California.

   ...D3/Sat to D4/Sun - New England...
   Dry, offshore flow will continue into the weekend over much of New
   England, resulting in elevated to locally critical fire-weather
   conditions. Despite relatively cool surface temperatures (highs in
   the upper 50s/lower 60s F), afternoon RH values are forecast to fall
   around or below critical thresholds (30%) across much of the area. 
   While vertical mixing in the PBL may be limited, strong
   northwesterly flow aloft will promote strong gust potential,
   especially for areas that are able to mix more deeply than forecast.
   Given the dry fuels (ERC values above the 90th percentile) across
   the region, fire weather concerns will peak on Saturday afternoon
   and linger into Sunday afternoon.

   ...D6/Tue to D7/Wed - Southern California...
   Medium-range ensemble guidance continues to show a signal for an
   offshore wind event across southern California on Tuesday and
   Wednesday. Both the GFS and ECMWF ensembles show reasonably good
   agreement in a strong (1040-1045 mb) surface high building across
   the northern Great Basin/northern Rockies in the wake of a strong
   upper trough. As a result, the offshore pressure gradient (likely
   peaking Wednesday morning) should support critical downslope winds
   in terrain-favored areas of southern California. Given antecedent
   receptive fuels (as evident by the ongoing large fire in Ventura
   County) and the anticipated downslope warming/drying, critical fire
   weather conditions appear possible during the D6/Tue to D7/Wed
   period.

   ..Jirak.. 11/14/2024