|
U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 081535
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1035 AM CDT Wed Apr 08 2026
Valid 081700Z - 091200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST SOUTH
CAROLINA INTO EASTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL GEORGIA...
...Morning Update...
The previous forecast remains on track. Passing high clouds this
morning and increasing mid-level clouds this afternoon may dampen
the fire environment in some areas. However, 15-20 mph northeasterly
winds overlapping near 20 percent RH for at least a few hours will
continue to support Critical fire weather in east/central Georgia
into southwestern South Carolina. Farther north, high resolution
guidance indicates breezy northeasterly winds of 10-15 mph and RH of
30-35 percent may extend closer to the North Carolina coastline, but
this region received sufficient rainfall in the last 72 hours,
precluding an eastward expansion of Elevated highlights. See the
previous discussion for more information.
..Elizalde-Garcia/Stearns.. 04/08/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0213 AM CDT Wed Apr 08 2026/
...Synopsis...
Upper-level ridging will persist across the Southwest today as an
upper-level trough progresses eastward across the far northern Great
Plains/southern Canada. Meanwhile, a closed upper-level low will
simultaneously approach the California coastline. At the surface, a
cold front will move east-southeastward across the central Great
Plains and Midwest while surface high pressure shifts offshore of
the Northeast.
...Portions of the Southeast...
Surface high pressure will continue to favor enhanced northeasterly
flow across much of the Southeast today. Sustained surface winds of
10-15 mph are expected to coincide with reduced RH of 25-35% and
dry, receptive fuels to promote elevated fire weather concerns from
north-central North Carolina southwestward into portions of southern
Georgia. Latest high-res guidance continues to suggest a corridor of
stronger winds (15-20 mph) will overlap minimum RH values as low as
~20% (locally lower) during peak mixing, which will support a period
of Critical fire weather conditions from southwestern South Carolina
into eastern/south-central Georgia. Locally elevated conditions will
also be possible into eastern North Carolina and northeastern South
Carolina; however, recent heavier rainfall accumulations across
these areas are expected to preclude any widespread concerns.
...Portions of the central/southern High Plains...
Locally elevated conditions will be possible across portions of the
central/southern High Plains this afternoon, especially where gap
flows and terrain effects enhance downslope flow conditions. The
greatest potential will be across portions of southern Wyoming,
southern South Dakota, and eastern Colorado. The combination of
winds, RH, and fuels is expected to largely remain below elevated
thresholds, thus widespread fire weather concerns are not
anticipated at this time.
|
U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 080717
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0217 AM CDT Wed Apr 08 2026
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...Synopsis...
Largely zonal flow will be in place across much of the Rockies on
D2/Thursday as a closed upper-level trough approaches the California
coastline and a series of shortwave troughs rotates through the
northern Great Lakes region. At the surface, weak low pressure
center is forecast to develop across southeastern Colorado, with a
trailing dryline extending southward across the central High Plains
and a cold front extending northeastward across the central Great
Plains.
...Portions of the southern High Plains...
Relative humidity values are forecast to fall to 10-20% across
portions of the southern High Plains Thursday afternoon amid peak
mixing. Latest high-res guidance also suggests that a tightened
surface pressure gradient will favor sustained south-southwesterly
winds around 15 mph across this region. With dry, receptive fuels in
place across the region, this combination of winds/RH is expected to
promote a few hours of elevated fire weather conditions across
portions of northeastern New Mexico, extreme southeastern Colorado,
the western Oklahoma Panhandle, and the northwestern Texas
Panhandle.
Increased mid-level moisture atop deep, dry boundary layers
(forecast soundings suggest boundary layers may extend up to ~500 mb
or 3-4 km AGL), may also support the development of isolated,
high-based convection across the region. With PWATs on the order of
half an inch or less, little precipitation is expected, but
outflow/wind gusts from this convection may locally augment surface
winds speeds. With forecast soundings indicating the presence of
50-100 J/kg MUCAPE atop the boundary layer, an occasional dry
lightning strike may also be possible across this area. Confidence
in the coverage of potential dry thunderstorms remains low at this
time, but trends will be monitored for future outlook issuances.
...Portions of the Great Basin/Southwest...
Southwesterly winds of 10-20 mph are expected to overlap low RH of
15-20% across portions of the southern Great Basin and Southwest.
These factors may generate locally elevated fire weather concerns
Thursday afternoon; however, recent cooler weather, precipitation,
and resultant marginal fuels are expected to temper widespread fire
weather concerns at this time.
..Chalmers.. 04/08/2026
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 072148
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0448 PM CDT Tue Apr 07 2026
Valid 091200Z - 151200Z
...Synopsis...
Fairly zonal flow dominates much of central CONUS on Day 3/Thursday
as upper-level troughing traverses the Northeast and a cutoff low
approaches the California coast. However, it's not until Day
4/Friday into Day 5/Saturday that the center of the low finally
moves onshore as a result of another trough moving across the
northern Pacific. By Day 6/Sunday, this upper-level low also cuts
off, sending the first cutoff low northeastward across the Great
Plains and Midwest by Day 8/Monday. This scenario is likely to
result in multiple days of precipitation across much of the western
and central US, which would temporarily dampen fire weather threats.
Sporadic areas of little to no precipitation will be possible, but
are difficult to pin point due to the highly dynamic pattern.
...Great Basin/Southwest - Day 3/Thursday through Day 4/Friday...
The best chances for sporadic fire weather conditions under
southerly flow will occur on Day 3/Thursday through Day 4/Friday
across portions of the eastern Great Basin and Southwest.
Southwesterly winds of 10-20 mph combined with 15-20% RH in
northwest AZ and southern NV may generate locally elevated fire
weather concerns on Day 3/Thursday. Similar conditions also appear
likely across eastern UT on Day 4/Friday. However, recent cooler
weather, precipitation, and resultant questionably receptive fuels
will preclude any probabilities at this time. While this event could
promote a brief period of drier fuel conditions across this region,
precipitation appears likely with the aforementioned low pressure
system later in the week.
...Southern Plains - Day 6/Sunday through Day 7/Monday...
Possible fire weather conditions return on Day 6/Sunday as a more
potent shortwave moves across the High Plains. On Day 7/Monday, a
secondary upper-level trough is forecast to move across the
Southwest. Considering the overall pattern, areas behind an emerging
dryline will need to be watched closely for fire weather concerns.
However, given model uncertainty in the timing of the shortwave and
coincident surface low development, and the potential for widespread
appreciable rainfall on Day 4/Friday - Day 5/Saturday, critical
probabilities have been withheld for now.
..Elizalde-Garcia/Stearns.. 04/07/2026
|
|
