ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 211635
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1135 AM CDT Mon Jun 21 2021
Valid 211700Z - 221200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN...
No changes to the ongoing forecast. Strong heating ahead of a cold
front now in parts of western/central New Mexico may promote locally
elevated to near critical fire weather in southeastern Arizona. The
risk should be spatially confined and relatively brief this
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0208 AM CDT Mon Jun 21 2021/
The mid-level flow pattern across the CONUS will become more
amplified today, as a broad trough deepens across the Great Lakes.
Over the West, a mid-level ridge will be compressed by an
approaching upper low off the California coast. Increasing westerly
flow aloft will spill over into the Great Basin supporting critical
fire weather conditions, while thunderstorms develop over the West
...Southern Great Basin and Vicinity...
Ahead of the Pacific trough, southwesterly mid-level low will
increase across eastern California and west-southwestern Nevada.
Warm and dry conditions will persist under the northward extension
of the ridge, as westerly downslope flow increases through the day.
Across the southern Great Basin, widespread surface RH below 15% is
expected by early afternoon. As winds increase through the diurnal
cycle, 20-25 mph sustained westerlies will overlap with the dry
airmass, supporting critical fire weather conditions.
...West Coast Dry Thunder...
Moist onshore flow will develop across much of the West Coast ahead
of the mid-level low. Regional model soundings show modest buoyancy
developing above relatively dry sub-cloud layers across northern
California and southern Oregon. Isolated dry lightning strikes
appear likely over dry fuels. Moisture should continue to increase
through the evening and overnight hours, augmenting precipitation
efficiency. However, fast-moving and high-based storms will likely
still support a few dry strikes as the mode becomes wetter.