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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 161654

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1154 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025

   Valid 161700Z - 171200Z

   The Elevated area across the north-central High Plains was expanded
   south and eastward across Kansas with this update in alignment with
   recent trends in guidance. HREF combined probabilities indicate high
   likelihood of Elevated fire weather conditions across this region.
   ERCs in this area are around the 80-90th percentile with below
   normal rainfall over the last 30 days across the region. This
   supports southward expansion of the Elevated into this region. See
   previous discussion below for more information.

   ..Thornton.. 03/16/2025

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025/

   ...Synopsis...
   Elevated fire weather conditions are expected across parts of the
   southern High Plains and central High Plains this afternoon. Surface
   high pressure is expected to build across the eastern Plains this
   afternoon as an upper trough and attendant surface low translates
   east towards the East Coast. Across the central/northern Rockies,
   strengthening westerly flow at the apex of an upper ridge will
   induce lee troughing and a westerly flow regime across parts of the
   High Plains. This synoptic regime will favor dry/windy conditions
   across parts of NM/TX and WY/NE where fuels remain dry after minimal
   rainfall in recent days.

   ...Southern High Plains...
   West/southwest surface winds are expected to increase to around 15
   mph on the southwesterly periphery of the surface ridge over the
   Plains. Although boundary-layer mixing is expected to be somewhat
   shallow (only to around 1 km AGL), 20-30 mph winds near the top of
   the boundary layer will manifest as occasional gusts at the surface
   by late afternoon. An influx of drier air from AZ and NM will
   support RH reductions into the teens, and fuels across the region
   remain receptive based on fuel guidance and recent fire activity. As
   such, a swath of elevated fire weather conditions appears likely
   this afternoon.

   ...North-central High Plains...
   Early signs of lee troughing are already noted in 05 UTC surface
   observations across the northern High Plains. This trend will
   continue as zonal flow across the northern Rockies strengthens over
   the next 24 hours. Dry conditions are expected on either side of the
   lee trough due to a combination of downslope flow off the Rockies
   and initial dry return flow over the Plains with RH reductions into
   the upper teens and low 20s likely. Westerly winds behind the lee
   trough should increase to 15-20 mph by late afternoon, which will
   support a broad area of elevated fire weather conditions. Localized
   critical conditions are possible - especially across the NE
   Panhandle where the best overlap of strong downslope winds and
   sub-20% RH is greatest.
      

U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook


   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 161943

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0243 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025

   Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS 
   INTO PARTS OF SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS...

   Minor adjustments were made to expand Critical probabilities further
   north into Kansas and eastern Colorado in alignment with recent
   guidance. Otherwise, the current forecast remains unchanged. See
   previous discussion below for more information.

   ..Thornton.. 03/16/2025

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0748 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025/

   ...Synopsis...
   Fire weather concerns will return to the southern and central Plains
   on Monday as a dry return flow regime becomes established across the
   central CONUS. A surface low is forecast to deepen along the
   northern High Plains before migrating into the northern Plains
   through the day Monday. As this occurs, a strong low-level mass
   response will induce breezy southerly winds from TX into the central
   Plains. A recent frontal passage into the northern Gulf has degraded
   moisture quality along the TX coast with persistent offshore flow
   expected for the next 24 hours. Consequently, moisture return into
   the Plains on Monday is expected to be limited and will allow for RH
   reductions into the teens to mid 20s as temperatures climb into the
   60s and 70s. A surface high shifting into the Southeast by Monday
   afternoon will support strong pressure gradient winds across NM and
   western TX/OK with a high probability for a large swath of sustained
   winds over 20 mph. Fire weather concerns are expected to be greatest
   across this region given recent fire activity and expected RH
   reductions into the low teens and single digits. Further north into
   the central High Plains, closer proximity to the surface trough/low
   will likely result in sustained winds closer to 15-20 mph. While
   weaker, these will still be sufficient to pose a widespread fire
   weather risk given receptive fine fuels over the region. 

   Both the Critical and Elevated fire weather risk areas were expanded
   east compared to the previous forecast to take into account the
   typical bias in guidance to under-mix the boundary layer in these
   regimes (which typically results in drier/windier conditions than
   otherwise expected). Additional uncertainties include the
   east/northeast extent of the fire weather risk given recent
   precipitation across parts of the MO River Valley. Fuel trends will
   be monitored and further expansions may be needed depending on fuel
   trends.


U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook


   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 162152

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0452 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025

   Valid 181200Z - 241200Z

   An active fire weather pattern will continue across much of the
   central/southern Plains through the extended period with multiple
   days of Elevated to Critical fire weather expected. Extremely
   Critical fire weather conditions are likely on D3 - Tuesday across
   the southern Plains. Another day of Critical fire weather concerns
   is likely on D6 - Friday again across the Southern Plains.

   ...D3-Tuesday, Central High Plains, Southern Plains...
   Across the western Pacific, a trough will begin deepen D3 - Tuesday,
   with westerly flow aloft overspreading the southern Rockies. As this
   occurs, strong surface low development is expected by Tuesday
   afternoon. Models are starting to come into better agreement on the
   eastern placement of the dryline and resulting dry conditions, which
   has led to confidence in expanding the 70 percent probabilities
   eastward into central/eastern Oklahoma and Kansas as well as
   north-central Texas. 

   Extremely Critical conditions will be possible across eastern New
   Mexico into the Texas Panhandle, possibly extending into western and
   central Oklahoma for a couple of hours Tuesday afternoon. Fuels in
   this region have undergone extreme fire weather conditions in the
   last few days and will be extremely susceptible to fire spread.
   Relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will be possible amid
   sustained winds 30+ mph. This will create a very dangerous
   conditions for fire spread on Tuesday afternoon. The dryline will
   mix eastward in the afternoon/evening on Tuesday, with relative
   humidity dropping rapidly amid very strong wind gusts along and
   ahead of the dryline/cold front along with a shift from southerly to
   southwest to westerly winds across portions of central Oklahoma and
   Kansas. This may lead to rapid changes in conditions and fire
   behavior near any ongoing fires.

   ...D4-D6 Wednesday/Friday, Southern Plains...
   Post frontal northwesterly flow will bring potential for Elevated
   fire concerns across portions of eastern New Mexico into the Texas
   Panhandle on D4 - Wednesday. 

   Winds will shift to become southeasterly on Thursday, but conditions
   look to remain very dry and breezy, with slow moisture return late
   D5/Thursday into D6/Friday. A belt of strong west-southwesterly flow
   aloft will overspread southern Plains again on Friday with surface
   low development expected across Kansas/Oklahoma. On D6 - Friday 40
   percent probabilities were upgraded to 70 percent across western
   Texas into the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles to account for
   development of the next surface low across the central Plains. It is
   possible Elevated fire concerns continue D7 - Saturday and D8 -
   Sunday with strong post frontal northwesterly flow regime returning.

   ..Thornton.. 03/16/2025
      




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