ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 161654
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1154 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025
Valid 161700Z - 171200Z
The Elevated area across the north-central High Plains was expanded
south and eastward across Kansas with this update in alignment with
recent trends in guidance. HREF combined probabilities indicate high
likelihood of Elevated fire weather conditions across this region.
ERCs in this area are around the 80-90th percentile with below
normal rainfall over the last 30 days across the region. This
supports southward expansion of the Elevated into this region. See
previous discussion below for more information.
..Thornton.. 03/16/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025/
...Synopsis...
Elevated fire weather conditions are expected across parts of the
southern High Plains and central High Plains this afternoon. Surface
high pressure is expected to build across the eastern Plains this
afternoon as an upper trough and attendant surface low translates
east towards the East Coast. Across the central/northern Rockies,
strengthening westerly flow at the apex of an upper ridge will
induce lee troughing and a westerly flow regime across parts of the
High Plains. This synoptic regime will favor dry/windy conditions
across parts of NM/TX and WY/NE where fuels remain dry after minimal
rainfall in recent days.
...Southern High Plains...
West/southwest surface winds are expected to increase to around 15
mph on the southwesterly periphery of the surface ridge over the
Plains. Although boundary-layer mixing is expected to be somewhat
shallow (only to around 1 km AGL), 20-30 mph winds near the top of
the boundary layer will manifest as occasional gusts at the surface
by late afternoon. An influx of drier air from AZ and NM will
support RH reductions into the teens, and fuels across the region
remain receptive based on fuel guidance and recent fire activity. As
such, a swath of elevated fire weather conditions appears likely
this afternoon.
...North-central High Plains...
Early signs of lee troughing are already noted in 05 UTC surface
observations across the northern High Plains. This trend will
continue as zonal flow across the northern Rockies strengthens over
the next 24 hours. Dry conditions are expected on either side of the
lee trough due to a combination of downslope flow off the Rockies
and initial dry return flow over the Plains with RH reductions into
the upper teens and low 20s likely. Westerly winds behind the lee
trough should increase to 15-20 mph by late afternoon, which will
support a broad area of elevated fire weather conditions. Localized
critical conditions are possible - especially across the NE
Panhandle where the best overlap of strong downslope winds and
sub-20% RH is greatest.
U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 161943
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0243 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
INTO PARTS OF SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS...
Minor adjustments were made to expand Critical probabilities further
north into Kansas and eastern Colorado in alignment with recent
guidance. Otherwise, the current forecast remains unchanged. See
previous discussion below for more information.
..Thornton.. 03/16/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0748 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025/
...Synopsis...
Fire weather concerns will return to the southern and central Plains
on Monday as a dry return flow regime becomes established across the
central CONUS. A surface low is forecast to deepen along the
northern High Plains before migrating into the northern Plains
through the day Monday. As this occurs, a strong low-level mass
response will induce breezy southerly winds from TX into the central
Plains. A recent frontal passage into the northern Gulf has degraded
moisture quality along the TX coast with persistent offshore flow
expected for the next 24 hours. Consequently, moisture return into
the Plains on Monday is expected to be limited and will allow for RH
reductions into the teens to mid 20s as temperatures climb into the
60s and 70s. A surface high shifting into the Southeast by Monday
afternoon will support strong pressure gradient winds across NM and
western TX/OK with a high probability for a large swath of sustained
winds over 20 mph. Fire weather concerns are expected to be greatest
across this region given recent fire activity and expected RH
reductions into the low teens and single digits. Further north into
the central High Plains, closer proximity to the surface trough/low
will likely result in sustained winds closer to 15-20 mph. While
weaker, these will still be sufficient to pose a widespread fire
weather risk given receptive fine fuels over the region.
Both the Critical and Elevated fire weather risk areas were expanded
east compared to the previous forecast to take into account the
typical bias in guidance to under-mix the boundary layer in these
regimes (which typically results in drier/windier conditions than
otherwise expected). Additional uncertainties include the
east/northeast extent of the fire weather risk given recent
precipitation across parts of the MO River Valley. Fuel trends will
be monitored and further expansions may be needed depending on fuel
trends.
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 162152
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0452 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025
Valid 181200Z - 241200Z
An active fire weather pattern will continue across much of the
central/southern Plains through the extended period with multiple
days of Elevated to Critical fire weather expected. Extremely
Critical fire weather conditions are likely on D3 - Tuesday across
the southern Plains. Another day of Critical fire weather concerns
is likely on D6 - Friday again across the Southern Plains.
...D3-Tuesday, Central High Plains, Southern Plains...
Across the western Pacific, a trough will begin deepen D3 - Tuesday,
with westerly flow aloft overspreading the southern Rockies. As this
occurs, strong surface low development is expected by Tuesday
afternoon. Models are starting to come into better agreement on the
eastern placement of the dryline and resulting dry conditions, which
has led to confidence in expanding the 70 percent probabilities
eastward into central/eastern Oklahoma and Kansas as well as
north-central Texas.
Extremely Critical conditions will be possible across eastern New
Mexico into the Texas Panhandle, possibly extending into western and
central Oklahoma for a couple of hours Tuesday afternoon. Fuels in
this region have undergone extreme fire weather conditions in the
last few days and will be extremely susceptible to fire spread.
Relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will be possible amid
sustained winds 30+ mph. This will create a very dangerous
conditions for fire spread on Tuesday afternoon. The dryline will
mix eastward in the afternoon/evening on Tuesday, with relative
humidity dropping rapidly amid very strong wind gusts along and
ahead of the dryline/cold front along with a shift from southerly to
southwest to westerly winds across portions of central Oklahoma and
Kansas. This may lead to rapid changes in conditions and fire
behavior near any ongoing fires.
...D4-D6 Wednesday/Friday, Southern Plains...
Post frontal northwesterly flow will bring potential for Elevated
fire concerns across portions of eastern New Mexico into the Texas
Panhandle on D4 - Wednesday.
Winds will shift to become southeasterly on Thursday, but conditions
look to remain very dry and breezy, with slow moisture return late
D5/Thursday into D6/Friday. A belt of strong west-southwesterly flow
aloft will overspread southern Plains again on Friday with surface
low development expected across Kansas/Oklahoma. On D6 - Friday 40
percent probabilities were upgraded to 70 percent across western
Texas into the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles to account for
development of the next surface low across the central Plains. It is
possible Elevated fire concerns continue D7 - Saturday and D8 -
Sunday with strong post frontal northwesterly flow regime returning.
..Thornton.. 03/16/2025
