ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 040646

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0146 AM CDT Sat Oct 04 2025

   Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

   ...Synopsis...
   The upper trough over the central Plains is forecast to lift
   northward into the Great Lakes as the surface low continues to
   intensify near the Canadian border. A trailing cold front will sweep
   eastward over the Northern Plains with wetting rainfall likely along
   and behind it. Ahead of the front, continued warm/dry conditions are
   likely over parts of the Midwest where elevated fire-weather
   conditions are possible.

   ...Midwest...
   Ongoing flash drought across much of the Midwest will continue to
   support drying fine fuels this weekend. Unseasonably warm
   temperatures and increasing southerly winds gusting 15-25 mph during
   the afternoon will support a few hours of elevated fire weather
   conditions on Sunday. The highest confidence in sustained elevated
   conditions will be across portions of eastern IA into northwestern
   IL. Here, deep mixing should limit returning surface moisture while
   winds are expected to remain strong ahead of the cold front trailing
   the surface low farther north.

   ...Southern High Plains...
   Along a trailing lee trough, breezy southwesterly winds are likely
   over portions of the southern High Plains Sunday afternoon. While
   not widespread, warm temperatures and downsloping should support RH
   values below 30% on an isolated basis. The favorable RH and increase
   in winds could allow for some locally elevated fire-weather
   conditions given increasingly dry fine fuels.

   ..Lyons.. 10/04/2025

      

   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 032042

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0342 PM CDT Fri Oct 03 2025

   Valid 051200Z - 111200Z

   An elongated trough across the West into the northern Plains will
   remain in place through roughly the middle of next week. The trough
   will eventually lift northward and move east into the Northeast by
   the end of next week. A surface front will move through the
   northern/central Plains this weekend and stall early next week. The
   front will then progress south and east when the upper trough in the
   Upper Midwest/Northeast intensifies and moves eastward. High
   pressure will then be the dominant feature east of the Divide. Fire
   weather concerns will generally be low on account of limited overlap
   of stronger winds and dry fuels. Additionally, precipitation is
   possible along the front as it moves south and east. That said, some
   concerns are possible this Sunday ahead of the front, particularly
   where diurnal heating will be greatest.

   ...Upper Midwest...
   Given the ongoing drought across much of Illinois, fuels have been
   quite dry. Warm temperatures and a moderately strong surface
   pressure gradient during the afternoon will support elevated to
   possibly locally critical fire weather on Sunday. The highest
   confidence (with support from ensemble guidance) is within
   northern/central Illinois.

   Farther northwest, closer to the front, enhanced southwesterly winds
   will be possible across parts of western Iowa into southern
   Minnesota. Given the potential for cloud cover, it is not clear how
   low RH will fall during the afternoon. Fuels are not as receptive as
   in Illinois, but finer fuels should be sufficiently dry to promote
   fire spread if the meteorological factors can align. Confidence in
   critical fire weather is too low for highlights, but at least
   locally elevated fire weather is expected.

   ..Wendt.. 10/03/2025