ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 241619
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1119 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025
Valid 241700Z - 251200Z
No changes are needed to the D1 Fire Outlook. See previous
discussion below for more information.
..Thornton.. 06/24/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1251 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025/
...Synopsis...
Elevated fire weather conditions are expected again today across
parts of the Four Corners and Intermountain West. Early-morning
water-vapor imagery reveals an upper low migrating into the lower
Colorado River Valley. This feature is expected to meander across
the southern Great Basin through the day with a belt of modest
(20-40 knot) southwesterly mid-level flow extending from northern AZ
into southern WY. Under this speed max, dry conditions persist
across the region with afternoon RH minimums in the teens expected.
Although surface pressure gradient winds will likely only remain in
the mid teens, frequent gusts between 20-35 mph are expected as
ample diurnal heating drives deep boundary-layer mixing. Fuels
across the region remain supportive of fire spread given recent fire
activity and no appreciable rainfall over the past 1-2 weeks.
...Dry Thunderstorms - Northeast Nevada...
Cold temperatures aloft associated with the southern Great Basin
upper low, coupled with a modest influx of mid-level moisture and
deep boundary-layer mixing, will promote isolated weak thunderstorms
across portions of northeast NV. Thermodynamic profiles are typical
of dry thunderstorm environments; however, slow storm motions (less
than 10 knots) will promote wetting rainfall under the convective
cores. Isolated dry lightning strikes on the periphery of heavier
precipitation is possible, but confidence in a robust dry
thunderstorm threat remains limited.
U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 241843
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0143 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous
discussion below for more information.
..Thornton.. 06/24/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0100 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025/
...Synopsis...
Fire weather concerns are expected to remain fairly localized on
Wednesday across the country. The upper trough currently migrating
into the lower Colorado River Valley is expected to begin
de-amplifying and drifting into the northern Rockies through the day
Wednesday. This will weaken winds across much of the Four
Corners/central Rockies where dry/breezy conditions have been
prevalent for the past several days. Little moisture recovery is
anticipated, so areas that typically see terrain-enhanced winds may
experience periods of elevated fire weather conditions Wednesday
afternoon. Currently, this appears most probable from northeast AZ
into eastern UT, but confidence in the coverage/duration of elevated
conditions is too limited for highlights.
Further to the west, zonal flow over the northern Sierra Nevada is
expected to increase as the weakening upper trough departs the Great
Basin. This will promote a downslope flow regime across northeast NV
and adjacent portions of CA and OR. Model guidance continues to show
uncertainty regarding the strength of the downslope winds and
potential for fire weather concerns. More aggressive solutions hint
that areas of elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions
are possible. Regardless, ERCs near or below the 80th percentile
should help modulate a more robust fire weather
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 241947
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0247 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025
Valid 261200Z - 021200Z
...Synopsis...
An weak upper-level trough will move across the Pacific Northwest
Day 3/Thursday into the Great Lakes by Day 7/Monday. An amplifying
ridge across the Intermountain West early next week will promote
lighter surface winds but well above normal temperatures for much of
the Western U.S. Weak troughing will remain off the West Coast, with
potential for locally breezy conditions and mix of wet/dry
thunderstorms.
...Day 3-6/Thursday-Sunday...
Generally weak upper flow with the western trough will promote
lighter, mainly terrain driven winds across much of the
Intermountain West and Southwest late this week, into early next
week. A few hours of Elevated to locally Critical conditions will be
possible across portions of the Columbia Basin into the Snake River
Plain in Idaho on D3/Thursday and D4/Friday.
...Day 7/Monday - Day 8/Tuesday...
A weak trough will push the western ridge eastward across the Divide
and Rockies early next week. There is some potential for increasing
winds but also moisture for thunderstorms across the Pacific
Northwest. For now, confidence in moisture and position of the
trough remains too low to include probabilities.
..Thornton.. 06/24/2025