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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 120804

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0204 AM CST Mon Jan 12 2026

   Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

   ...Synopsis...
   Broad troughing is forecast to persist over the eastern US with high
   pressure building to the West. This will favor continued
   northwesterly flow over much of the CONUS. A stronger shortwave
   trough within the flow aloft will pass over the northern and central
   Rockies this afternoon. This, along with a strong surface pressure
   gradient will boost westerly low-level flow across the region,
   supporting an increase in fire-weather concerns.

   ...Central and Northern High Plains...
   Strong downslope winds are expected across much of the Rockies and
   adjacent High Plains today as upper-level ridging rapidly builds
   over the West. A shortwave trough embedded within strong
   west/northwesterly flow will move southeastward overspreading an
   unusually warm and dry airmass for January. West-northwest winds of
   20-30 mph with higher gusts will combine with relative humidity in
   the 20-30% range and dry fine fuels to facilitate an increased fire
   danger across lower elevations of central MT and northern WY.

   Farther south winds are expected to be somewhat weaker and displaced
   from the stronger flow aloft. Still, strong westerly pressure
   gradients and drier surface conditions could promote a few hours of
   locally elevated fire-weather conditions over portions of CO/WY/NE
   where fine fuels are very dry.

   ...Southern Plains...
   Across the Southern Plains, dry southwest flow will likely support
   dry and breezy conditions over parts of OK/TX. Afternoon RH values
   will likely fall below 20%, though winds will be generally light.
   While recent rainfall has tempered fuels to some degree, fine fuels
   remain fairly dry and, some localized fire-weather concerns are
   possible.

   ..Lyons.. 01/12/2026
      

U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook


   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 120807

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0207 AM CST Mon Jan 12 2026

   Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

   ...Synopsis...
   Broad northwesterly flow will persist over much of the CONUS as
   eastern US troughing continues to intensify. A stronger shortwave
   within the broad troughing will move southward over the central US
   Tuesday. An accompanying cold front will also move southward with
   strong surface winds along and behind it.

   ..Central High Plains...
   As the upper trough over the East deepens, flow aloft will turn more
   northerly ahead of the strong shortwave trough. This, along with the
   surface cold front will support strong northerly/northwesterly
   surface winds across parts of WY northern CO and NE Tuesday. At
   least brief dry and breezy conditions are possible in this region
   owing to the downslope winds. Currently, RH values appear only
   modest owing to cloud cover and rapidly decreasing temperatures.
   However, very dry fine fuels and in some dry/breezy conditions could
   support brief locally elevated fire-weather potential Tuesday
   afternoon before diminishing overnight.

   ...Southern Plains...
   A period of dry southwesterly flow is forecast to develop across the
   southern Plains D2/Tuesday as upper troughing intensifies over the
   northeastern US. Winds are not forecast to be overly strong, but
   gusts around 15 mph are possible. These winds, overlapping with low
   RH of 15-20% during the afternoon could support some localized
   fire-weather concerns. However, recent rainfall should preclude
   broader potential.

   ...Southeast...
   Dry conditions will likely persist over the Southeast as surface
   high pressure settles south of the deepening low in the wake of an
   earlier cold front. While strong winds appear unlikely, RH values
   below 35% and drier fuels could support some brief localized
   fire-weather concerns, especially across parts of coastal GA and the
   Carolinas where little rainfall has occurred recently.

   ..Lyons.. 01/12/2026


U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook


   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 112146

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0346 PM CST Sun Jan 11 2026

   Valid 131200Z - 191200Z

   ...Synopsis...
   A more amplified upper-level pattern will evolve across CONUS by
   midweek with pronounced north-to-south meridional flow developing
   across the central U.S. though the weekend. Several cold fronts
   should progress across the eastern U.S. with largely dry conditions
   expected in the High Plains and West. Colder temperatures and likely
   precipitation across the eastern CONUS should mitigate broader fire
   weather threat for the latter part of the week. Dry post-frontal
   flow and subsequent dry return flow events could allow for increased
   fire weather threat across portions of the central/southern Plains
   where dry fuels align.

   ...Day 4/Wednesday - Southern Plains...
   Breezy and dry conditions behind a cold front are expected across
   the Southern Plains on Day 4/Wednesday. An increased fire weather
   threat is most likely across portions of central TX, where rainfall
   deficits and dry fuels continue. Precipitation associated with an
   upper-level low impacting southwest TX Day 3/Tuesday should also
   largely avoid north-central and northwestern TX, supporting more
   receptive fuels. Some forecast uncertainty remains in level of RH
   reductions Wednesday afternoon so critical probabilities were
   maintained at 40% for portions of northwest TX and the Rolling
   Plains.

   ...Day 5-8/Thursday-Sunday...
   An amplified ridge should remain intact over the West Coast through
   the weekend while deeper troughing east of the Continental Divide
   promotes intrusions of colder, generally more benign fire weather
   conditions into the eastern contiguous U.S. Another robust cold
   front moves into the central/southern Plains Days
   5-6/Thursday-Friday, but uncertainty in timing in addition to
   increased cloud cover and potential light precipitation could
   mitigate a broader fire weather threat across the region.

   ..Williams.. 01/11/2026
      




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