ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 171649
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1149 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025
Valid 171700Z - 181200Z
...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF NEW MEXICO INTO
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
Latest model guidance consensus and surface observations suggest
corridor of Extreme fire weather conditions should extend from
southwestern and central New Mexico into far western portions of the
Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles this afternoon. In addition, Critical
highlights were extended slightly eastward into western Oklahoma and
northwest Texas. An accelerating mid-level jet over the Southwest
and deepening lee surface trough will support southwest winds of
30-40 mph across southwestern New Mexico into the Oklahoma/Texas
Panhandles. A dry, well-mixed boundary layer will reinforce
widespread relative humidity of 10 percent or less across much of
New Mexico and adjacent High Plains. This weather environment will
allow for Critical to Extreme fire weather conditions supportive of
rapid fire spread in dry fuels.
..Williams/Moore.. 04/17/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1255 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025/
...Synopsis...
A potent mid-level jet will overspread New Mexico during the
afternoon today. A surface low will deepen near the Colorado/Kansas
border. A broad region of high-end fire weather will be present
across parts of the Southwest and the adjacent southern/central High
Plains.
...New Mexico...
The most significant fire weather concerns are expected from
southwest into northeast New Mexico. Here, the mid-level jet will be
quite favorably timed with peak heating. Sustained wind of 30-40 mph
and gusts of 55-65 mph appear probable during the afternoon. RH of
5-10% can be expected. With ERCs near or above the 90th percentile
(with some around the 97th), significant fire spread can be expected
with any ignitions.
...Southern High Plains...
While some transitioning/greening fuels complicate the forecast, the
still intense meteorological conditions will drive critical fire
weather for parts of West Texas. Areas of the eastern Panhandle and
South Plains (areas primarily east of the Caprock) will see
similarly dry and windy conditions, but less receptive fuels (per
TICC and other local fuel information) will keep fire weather
elevated. RH of 5-15% with winds of 15-25 mph are expected. The
highest wind speeds will be near the New Mexico border into the
northwest Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles.
...Central High Plains...
With the deepening surface low and some portion of the mid-level jet
impacting the region, westerly downslope winds in Colorado and
southwesterly winds in Kansas will promote elevated to critical fire
weather. Strong winds (20-30 mph) are expected for much of the Front
Range into southwest Kansas. RH will be similarly low as farther
south/west -- values ranging from 5-15%. The fire weather threat
will extend as far north as the cold front. A few locations could
see elevated to briefly critical conditions prior to winds shifting
to the north and RH quickly rising.
U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 171949
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0249 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN/EASTERN NEW
MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS...
A slight eastward and northward expansion of Elevated fire weather
conditions was warranted across portions of the Texas Panhandle and
western Texas. Latest model guidance consensus delays/stalls the
cold front intrusion into the Texas Panhandle until Friday early
evening. This will act to prolong at least elevated fire weather
conditions across the Cap Rock area, including southwest winds of up
to 20 mph and relative humidity in falling into the lower teens by
mid-afternoon. Critical fire weather conditions are still expected
across much of southeast New Mexico and far west Texas as an
upper-level trough deepens across the Intermountain West.
...Florida...
Expect increased east winds Friday across the Florida Peninsula as
high pressure translates eastward into the Atlantic. Winds of 10-15
mph coupled with relative humidity in the 25-35 percent range amid
dry fuels will promote Elevated fire weather conditions for much of
central and southwest Florida.
..Williams/Moore.. 04/17/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1256 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025/
...Synopsis...
The upper trough will shift to the east with the stronger mid-level
winds within the southern/central Plains on Friday. Another surface
low, though weaker than Thursday, will develop along the New
Mexico/Texas border. A cold front will push farther south into parts
of the southern Plains. Fire weather concerns will remain across
parts of the Southwest and southern High Plains.
...New Mexico into West Texas...
Though mid-level flow will be weaker than the previous day, moderate
flow should remain across the region during the afternoon. Coupled
with the modest surface low, surface winds of 15-25 mph will be
possible. RH could fall around 10% for some locations, but will more
broadly be around 15-20%. Critical fire weather is most likely in
parts of southern and eastern New Mexico and the Trans-Pecos. There
is greater confidence in critically low RH as well as fuels being
more receptive here.
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 172125
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0425 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025
Valid 191200Z - 251200Z
An upper-level trough across the Desert Southwest on Day 3/Saturday
will pivot through the Southern Plains on Day 4/Sunday, accelerating
northeastward into the Great Lakes Region by Day 5/Monday. Fire
weather concerns with this feature should remain limited to far
southeastern New Mexico and far western Texas ahead of the cold
front on Saturday. However, uncertainty exists in timing of the cold
front and westward extent of moist return flow from the Gulf. The
probability for Critical fire weather conditions was left at 40
percent due to this timing uncertainty. The upper-level trough and
associated precipitation across much of the eastern U.S. will
mitigate fire weather concerns temporarily Day 5/Monday through Day
7/Wednesday. Ensemble cluster analysis reveals a general troughing
pattern returning to the Western U.S. as early as Day 7, indicating
a return to a warm and dry southwesterly flow across portions of the
Desert Southwest and adjacent High Plains, but uncertainty is high
enough to preclude adding Critical probabilities at this time.
Very dry conditions are expected to persist across Florida through
at least the middle of next week as a Bermuda High evolves to the
east, introducing a more daily southeasterly flow into the state.
Further drying of fuels are expected with much of southern Florida
already above the 90th percentile range in ERC. This could present
at least an Elevated fire weather threat for western Florida
Peninsula into the middle of next week.
..Williams/Moore.. 04/17/2025
