ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 260707

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0207 AM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025

   Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

   ...Synopsis...
   Mid-level ridging over the western US will gradually move eastward
   as an upper trough and strong jet begin to move offshore. A cold
   front will move over much of the Southeast with a dry air mass and
   high pressure in its wake. Over the west, a weak upper trough and
   low-level moisture will move into parts of the southern Plains
   supporting thunderstorm chances.

   ...Southwest and southern Plains...
   With the weak upper trough remaining relatively stationary beneath
   the upper ridge, another round of isolated diurnal storms will be
   possible across much of NM into west TX. Likely high-based, storms
   along the western edge of the more robust moisture return are
   unlikely to produce significant wetting rainfall. However, steep
   lapse rates and sufficient PWAT values (0.5-0.8 in) for weak
   buoyancy may allow for isolated lightning strikes within a region of
   dry and receptive fuels. Dry thunderstorm probabilities have been
   maintained across parts of NM.

   Ahead of the deeper moisture across parts of OK and KS, a few hours
   of locally elevated conditions are possible with dry southerly
   winds. While RH appears unlikely to reach critical criteria,
   southerly gusts of 20-25 mph and afternoon minimums near 30% will
   overlap with areas of very dry fuels. This may support some
   localized fire-weather concerns.

   ...FL...
   Relatively dry conditions are likely in a post-frontal air mass
   across parts of the FL Peninsula Thursday afternoon and evening.
   With light northeasterly winds and warm temperatures, inland RH
   values below 35% appear likely across central and western parts of
   the Peninsula. While surface winds are not expected to be overly
   strong (generally less than 10 mph), occasional stronger gusts
   overlapping with the low RH and very dry fuels could support a few
   hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions.

   ..Lyons.. 03/26/2025

      

   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 252140

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0440 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025

   Valid 271200Z - 021200Z

   ...D3/Thursday: Parts of NM...
   10% dry thunderstorm probabilities have been maintained across parts
   of NM for D3/Thursday. Isolated diurnal storm development will again
   be possible across much of NM into west TX. Storms along the western
   periphery of the deeper moist plume are unlikely to produce more
   than light precipitation, with potential for lightning strikes to
   result in fire starts within a region of dry and receptive fuels. 

   ...D3/Thursday: Parts of FL...
   Relatively dry conditions are expected to persist across parts of
   the FL Peninsula on Thursday, within the influence of an offshore
   surface ridge. Minimum RH values may drop below 35%, especially
   across southeast portions of the peninsula. Winds are likely to
   remain rather modest, but locally elevated conditions will be
   possible during the afternoon and early evening. 

   ...D4/Friday - D8/Tuesday: Parts of NM into west TX and vicinity...
   While predictability regarding the surface and upper-air pattern
   gradually decreases with time into early next week, it appears
   likely that multiple shortwaves will move across the southern
   Rockies into the Plains beginning on D4/Friday. 40% critical
   probabilities were maintained for Friday/Saturday and added for
   Sunday for parts of NM into west TX. The magnitude and north/east
   extent of critical potential remains uncertain this weekend, and
   will depend on the timing and amplitude of any ejecting shortwaves. 

   For D7/Monday into D8/Tuesday, confidence remains too low to
   introduce critical probabilities, though elevated to potentially
   critical conditions may persist or develop into early next week,
   depending on the evolution of the pattern and persistent
   mid/upper-level troughing across the Southwest.

   ..Dean.. 03/25/2025