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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 281634
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1134 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026
Valid 281700Z - 291200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND
WESTERN TEXAS...
...Southwest and Southern Plains...
Robust westerly flow aloft will persist today over the Southwest and
Southern Plains as a low amplitude upper trough ejects into the
Central Plains. Minimal changes to the Critical highlighted area in
portions of eastern NM and western TX were needed, where west winds
of 20-25 mph and single digit RH overlapping dry fuels will align
through the peak afternoon heating. Latest model guidance and
surface observation trends suggest limited movement of a nearly
stationary frontal boundary and associated modified air mass
stretched across southeastern CO into the TX panhandle as the
afternoon progresses. This should reduce the northeastward extent of
fire-effective weather conditions today, where Elevated Highlights
have been trimmed.
...Upstate New York and much of Vermont...
South winds continue to increase across the northeastern U.S. south
of deep surface low in eastern Ontario. RH trends are also lower,
currently in the 20-30% range, with further reductions close to 20%
expected by late afternoon, despite increasing cloud cover. Fuels
remain quite receptive with ERC values in the 90th to 97th
percentiles across portions of the Northeast. Extended Elevated
Highlights into central NY to include the Adirondacks and Green
Mountains in VT to account for the more expansive dry air mass in
place across the region.
..Williams.. 04/28/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1229 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026/
...Synopsis...
As a low pressure system off the West Coast slowly approaches Baja
CA, a mid/upper shortwave trough over the Southwest will traverse
the High Plains encouraging strong westerly mid-level flow. Fire
weather conditions will continue for portions of western NM into the
southern Plains as a result of downslope warming and boundary layer
mixing. A deepening surface low will pass over the Great Lakes
region into southern Ontario, assisting in the breakdown of upper
ridging along the Eastern Seaboard. Increasing low-level southerly
flow ahead of an incoming trough and associated cold front will
allow for fire weather concerns to emerge in Upstate NY and western
VT amid a very dry airmass.
...Southern Plains...
Critical fire weather conditions are expected to continue this
afternoon where a dry airmass and strong winds overlap a region of
receptive fuels. Widespread west to southwest winds of 15-20 mph
coupled with RH falling to 10-20 percent atop a dry fuelscape will
increase fire spread potential for any new and/or ongoing wildfires.
More intense wind belts of 20-25 mph aligning with RH reductions
close to 10 percent yield Critical fire weather conditions across
east-central and southeastern NM into adjacent portions of TX.
...Upstate New York and Western Vermont...
As surface pressure gradients tighten surrounding a surface low
positioned over central/eastern Ontario, southerly winds are
expected to reach 10-15 mph with localized/terrain enhanced 20 mph
corridors likely. Mid-upper level cloud cover will increase this
morning through the afternoon hours, potentially limiting deeper
mixing. However, RH of 25-35 percent (locally near 20 percent) are
still expected by early afternoon. These dry and breezy conditions
will align amid dry fuels to promote an Elevated fire weather threat
across upstate NY and western VT.
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 281942
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0242 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
...Southwest...
A 50-60 knot mid-level jet at the base of an embedded, low-amplitude
short wave within broader west-southwest flow will evolve across the
Southwest and Southern Plains Wednesday. Increasing upper cloud
cover within a Pacific moisture plume will have overspread the
region by Wednesday morning. This should inhibit RH recoveries west
of the NM central mountain chain, preconditioning an already dry
fuel environment for another dry and breezy day. Sustained west
winds of around 15 mph across portions of far eastern AZ into
western NM overlapping RH of 10% or less during the day, will
support an elevated fire weather threat Wednesday. Locally critical
fire weather conditions to include sustained winds of 20-25 mph are
possible mainly in the leeward slopes of more prominent mountain
ranges in southern NM. Farther east, a backdoor cold front will
bring considerable improvement in dewpoints and RH, lowering the
overall fire weather threat across the southern High Plains. Some
slight modifications were made to the highlighted area based on
latest forecast guidance consensus.
...Southern Georgia and Northern Florida...
Increasing west winds south of a surface low moving into the
northeastern U.S. will emerge across portions of the Southeast
Wednesday. The steady west winds and residual dry boundary layer
with minimal Gulf moisture influence will overlap a dry and drought
stressed landscape. This will support elevated fire weather
conditions across portions of southern GA into northern FL where
west winds of around 10 mph, RH of 25-35% and receptive fuels align.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible across the FL
Panhandle and adjacent AL/GA border areas Wednesday afternoon, but
more widespread precipitation is not expected until Wednesday night
into Thursday morning. A slight southward extension into the FL
Peninsula was made to the existing elevated area based on latest
model guidance.
..Williams.. 04/28/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1231 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026/
...Synopsis...
A mid/upper level shortwave trough will traverse the Midwest into
the Ohio Valley as an attendant surface low approaches the
Mid-Atlantic. A trailing cold front will progress east of the
Appalachians extending into the Southeast by Wednesday afternoon.
Dry westerly flow south of the advancing cold front is expected to
increase fire weather concerns for portions of southern GA and
northern FL where fuels remain dry. Enhanced mid-level westerly flow
ahead of an approaching Pacific trough will bolster a continued
downslope regime across the Southwest. With preceding days of
fire-effective weather conditions and receptive fuels, fire weather
concerns will persist over central NM to far eastern AZ on
Wednesday.
...Southwest...
Persistent westerly mid-level flow and developing lee-surface
troughing will promote dry and breezy conditions across eastern AZ
into central NM. While winds are fairly marginal compared to
previous days, widespread westerly winds of 15-20 mph and RH of less
than 15 percent amid dry fuels will support Elevated fire weather
conditions on Wednesday afternoon.
...Southern Georgia and northern Florida...
Beneath the upper level trough, a deepening surface low over the
Mid-Atlantic will enhance southwest to westerly surface winds across
much of the Southeast. An Elevated fire weather threat exists where
delayed Gulf moisture return amid an existing dry boundary layer is
expected to support minimum RH reductions of 25-35 percent (locally
less than 25 percent) across portions of southern GA into northern
FL by Wednesday afternoon. However, precipitation appears likely
along a southward progressing cold front through central GA. Fire
weather highlights may be adjusted in future outlooks as forecast
guidance aligns in the location/extent of the cold front and
rainfall amounts.
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 282140
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0440 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026
Valid 301200Z - 061200Z
...Synopsis...
An upper-level trough will be a predominant feature across the
eastern U.S. through early next week. A gradually southward
progressing cold front and accompanying rainfall is expected across
much of the Deep South, Southeast and portions of the Mid-Atlantic
where extensive drought and receptive fuels remain. This should have
an overall mitigating influence on fire weather concerns through the
weekend, with the exception of the FL Peninsula. Meanwhile, an
upper-level trough with accompanying ample Pacific moisture aloft
will intersect a cold front draped over the Southern Plains on Day
3-4/Thursday-Friday. This should support widespread wetting rains
and a reduced fire weather threat across much of the central and
southern High Plains. Upper-level ridging across the West will
promote a warming and drying trend through the weekend, with a dry
and breezy regime returning to the Desert Southwest and southern
Great Basin ahead of the next Pacific trough early next week.
...Day 3-5/Thursday-Saturday - Florida Peninsula...
Dry conditions including relative humidity at or below 35% and
breezy west winds are expected Days 3-4/Thursday-Friday with showers
and thunderstorms associated with a frontal boundary confined along
the northern Gulf Coast and the FL Panhandle. An upper-level wave
and deepening surface trough should bring increasing west/southwest
winds to FL on Day 5/Saturday. This could aid in bringing additional
boundary layer moisture from the Gulf into the state, although very
dry fuels and drought could still support wildfire spread. 40%
critical probabilities have been introduced into central FL for Days
3-5/Thursday-Saturday. Longer term forecast guidance shows
appreciable rainfall across the FL Peninsula on Day 6/Sunday as the
cold front finally shifts southeastward, bringing reprieve to a
preceding multi-day fire weather threat.
..Williams.. 04/28/2026
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