ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 110622

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0122 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025

   Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO...PORTIONS OF
   THE PANHANDLES OF OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS...EXTREME SOUTHEAST COLORADO
   AND FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS...

   ...Synopsis...
   The mid-level pattern should transition from western/central ridge
   and eastern trough to western trough, central ridge, and eastern
   trough. This will be the result of the eastern trough continuing to
   move east toward the Atlantic at the same time as the western trough
   continues east. This ridge should stretch from northern Mexico into
   the Great Lakes, with a shortwave trough digging southeast into the
   northern Rocky Mountains. 

   Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions will develop across the
   Southern Plains in response to an increase in westerly mid-level
   flow on the southern periphery of the aforementioned Northern Rocky
   Mountain trough and a subtropical jet. This downslope flow will
   allow relative humidity to fall into the low teens (locally into the
   upper-single digits) with gusty winds to near 35 mph across the
   Critical area. 

   Surrounding the Critical area will be a large area of Elevated.
   Within the elevated, surface winds may not be as great as in the
   corridor highlighted by the Critical area. This, coupled with ERC
   values generally less than 80%, should preclude the need for
   Critical delineation.

   ... Florida Peninsula ...

   A dry, post-frontal airmass should be in place across much of the
   region on Saturday. Much of the peninsula will see little if any
   precipitation associated with the frontal passage on Friday. Thus,
   fuels should continue to dry. The dry airmass should allow for
   sufficiently strong flow to mix down to the surface to support
   elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions.

   ..Marsh.. 04/11/2025

      

   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 102154

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0454 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025

   Valid 121200Z - 181200Z

   An upper-level trough traversing through the Northern Rockies and
   Northern Plains combined with a modest subtropical jet support,
   south of the trough should promote a broad area of stronger winds
   across the Desert Southwest portions of the Central and Southern
   High Plains over the weekend. Combined with a very dry, well mixed
   boundary layer, a Critical fire weather probability of 70 percent
   was introduced into portions New Mexico and into the Texas and
   Oklahoma Panhandles over the weekend (day 3/day 4). Lee cyclone
   development and eastward translation of the upper-level trough is
   expected to bring gusty winds behind a dry, post-frontal environment
   supporting a 40 percent probability of a Critical fire weather
   threat for portions of the Central Plains on day 5/Monday.

   ...Day 3/Saturday - Day 4/Sunday: Desert Southwest and adjacent High
   Plains...
   Gusty west-southwest surface winds aided by an increase in a broad
   but modest subtropical jet aloft combined with a very dry boundary
   layer is expected to result in Critical fire weather conditions
   across northeastern New Mexico into the Texas and Oklahoma
   Panhandles on day 3/Saturday. A southward shift and acceleration in
   mid-level flow along with leeward cyclone development in the
   southern High Plains, should support a broad area of increased
   surface winds amid dry fuels and very low relative humidity on day
   4/Sunday. This threat will be concentrated across southern New
   Mexico into the Texas Panhandle.

   ..Williams/Lyons.. 04/10/2025