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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

   FNUS21 KWNS 281539

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1039 AM CDT Tue Sep 28 2021

   Valid 281700Z - 291200Z


   ...Northern High Plains...
   The forecast generally remains on track with only minor adjustments
   needed based on recent observations and morning guidance. Surface
   observations from eastern MT show lee troughing underway with MSLP
   values already near or below the 10th percentile for this time of
   year. This supports recent forecasts, which maintain reasonable
   probabilities for critical conditions across eastern MT/WY and the
   western Dakotas as the low deepens further this afternoon. The
   eastern extent of critical and elevated conditions remains somewhat
   uncertain due to the overlap of 20-25 mph boundary-layer winds with
   weak moisture return across the central Dakotas. Brief elevated
   conditions are likely behind the approaching cold front across
   central MT, but will likely be limited in duration. 

   ...Northern California...
   An Elevated risk area is introduced for the Sacramento Valley where
   winds have already increased to near 15 mph in some locations.
   Recent hi-res guidance has come into better agreement regarding the
   potential for RH reductions into the 15-20% range, which has
   increased confidence in the areal coverage of elevated conditions.

   ..Moore.. 09/28/2021

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0149 AM CDT Tue Sep 28 2021/

   Troughing over the Intermountain West will becoming increasingly
   broad through the day as a secondary upper low over the southern
   Plains moves northward and merges with the main trough across the
   northern Rockies. As the primary mid-level jet associated with the
   trough moves north into southern Alberta, a lee low/trough should
   develop in response, across portions of eastern Montana/Wyoming. A
   cold front trailing from the surface low is forecast to rapidly move
   eastward across the Great Basin and Northern Rockies bringing cooler
   temperatures and an increase in humidity. Gusty south/southwest
   winds, and warm/dry conditions ahead of the front are expected to
   support elevated to critical fire weather conditions through the
   afternoon and evening.

   ...Northern Rockies and High Plains...
   As synoptic lift from the trough and the rear quadrant of the
   departing mid-level jet move across the northern Rockies, lee
   cyclogenesis is expected early in the day across eastern Montana and
   far western North Dakota. The increasing westerly flow aloft should
   also aid in the development of a lee trough in eastern Wyoming and
   the western Dakotas. The rapidly deepening low, below 1000 mb by
   midday, will support strong mass response in the low levels, driving
   20-25 mph southerly surface winds across much of eastern Wyoming,
   and western South Dakota. Here, the warm temperatures and dry
   downslope flow near the lee trough will support widespread diurnal
   RH minimums of 10-20%. A lingering low-level jet may also bolster
   surface gusts to 30+ mph through the afternoon given deep mixing
   heights on regional model soundings. With very dry fuels in place
   and ongoing drought conditions, fuels are highly receptive to starts
   and fire spread. Widespread elevated to critical fire weather
   conditions are expected through the afternoon and into the evening
   hours. The approaching cold front will end the fire weather threat
   after sunset as winds shift to the west northwest and RH begins to

   ...Central and southern California...
   Gusty winds of 15-20 mph are expected in the post-frontal airmass
   across much of the Central Valley and portions of southern
   California this afternoon and evening. Low-level trajectories from
   the west northwest will be less favorable for lower humidity given
   the presence of a stronger marine layer farther inland. However, the
   gusty winds and dry fuels may still support a few hours of locally
   elevated fire weather conditions. The fire weather threat should
   rapidly diminish overnight as RH recoveries near 50-60% are expected
   to develop along with weaker winds.

U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

   FNUS22 KWNS 280652

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0152 AM CDT Tue Sep 28 2021

   Valid 291200Z - 301200Z


   Broad troughing will linger over much of the western US Wednesday,
   supporting widespread shower and thunderstorm activity across the
   central CONUS. To the east, high pressure will strengthen as
   mid-level flow weakens and shifts to the north. At the surface,
   gusty northerly winds through much of California will promote weak
   to moderate offshore flow, along with warming and drying conditions.
   Fire weather threats are expected to remain mostly local in nature,
   though periodic elevated conditions are possible across portions of
   southern California mainly late in the forecast period and into Day

   In the wake of the cold front, gradient winds are forecast to remain
   light and northerly through much of the day across central and
   southern California. Warm and dry surface conditions are expected
   with diurnal RH minimums near 20%. Poor RH recoveries should persist
   into the overnight and early Day3/Thursday as east northeasterly
   winds begin to increase in response to building high pressure across
   the Great Basin. Weak offshore flow will likely develop across the
   southern Coastal Ranges with some chance for locally elevated fire
   weather conditions overnight.

   ..Lyons.. 09/28/2021

U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

   FNUS28 KWNS 272122

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0422 PM CDT Mon Sep 27 2021

   Valid 291200Z - 051200Z

   The upper-level trough currently shifting into the western U.S. is
   expected to de-amplify and stall along the Rockies through the late
   week period. Surface high pressure over the Great Basin in the wake
   of this trough will yield relatively weak winds for the interior
   West, but support offshore winds and fire weather concerns along the
   southern California coast. Elsewhere, rain chances across the
   Pacific Northwest and Great Plains will limit additional fire
   weather concerns. 

   ...D3/Wednesday to D4/Thursday - Southern California Coast...
   Medium and long-range guidance show reasonably good agreement in the
   evolution and placement of the upper-level wave through the Four
   Corners and into northern Mexico by the D3/Wed to D4/Thur time
   frame. This will favor north to northeasterly flow aloft over
   southern CA, while an offshore pressure gradient supports
   east/northeast winds at the surface. Deterministic solutions are not
   overly bullish on wind speeds (likely due to generally weak flow
   aloft), but this synoptic pattern typically favors elevated to
   critical downslope winds within the coastal hills and mountains. The
   strongest pressure gradient is expected early D4/Thur, and fine
   fuels should be sufficiently cured by that point to support at least
   low-end probabilities.

   ..Moore.. 09/27/2021

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