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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

   FNUS21 KWNS 171634

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1134 AM CDT Thu Jun 17 2021

   Valid 171700Z - 181200Z


   Some refinements were made to the isolated dry thunderstorm area
   across portions of central/southern Nevada and southwest Utah. The
   latest high-resolution CAMs and SREF guidance depict a lower
   likelihood of dry thunderstorms in this region as compared to
   previous runs. Otherwise, the balance of the previous forecast
   remains on track. See the discussion below for more details.

   ..Karstens.. 06/17/2021

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1250 AM CDT Thu Jun 17 2021/

   An upper-level high will remain over the Four Corners region today,
   allowing for strong diurnal heating and the deepening of a thermal
   trough over the Four Corners/Great Basin region. To the north,
   pressure gradient winds will increase through the day as surface
   high pressure builds over the Pacific Northwest with a lingering low
   over the Plains. This will support elevated to critical fire weather
   conditions across the northern Great Basin and into the northern
   Rockies/High Plains.

   ...Central to Northern Rockies and Great Basin...
   Dry conditions will persist for much of the northern Great Basin and
   into the northern Rockies, and active fires within the region over
   the past few days are indicative of receptive fuels. Afternoon RH
   values in the single digits are expected across NV/UT, increasing to
   the teens and low 20s with northward extent into northern MT and
   western ND. The synoptic pressure gradient over the northern Great
   Basin and central/northern Rockies will be augmented by early
   afternoon as boundary-layer mixing transports stronger mid-level
   flow to the surface. Sustained winds between 15-20 mph (gusting to
   25-35 mph) will support areas of elevated conditions. Critical
   conditions remain likely across south-central WY where terrain
   influences will regionally strengthen winds to 20-25 mph (with gusts
   up to 40-45 mph possible) along the I-80 corridor. 

   Evening soundings from across the Four Corners region show mid-level
   moisture atop of deep, well-mixed boundary layers with 100-500 J/kg
   MUCAPE. This environment supported isolated to scattered
   thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon, and despite some convective
   overturning, mean easterly winds into NM/AZ will continue to supply
   mid-level moisture and maintain favorable thermodynamic profiles for
   thunderstorms this afternoon. Strong heating coupled with orographic
   ascent will favor isolated, to perhaps scattered, thunderstorms
   across the broader Southwest/Four Corners region. PWAT values
   between 0.5 to 0.75 inches suggest a mix of wet and dry storms.

   ...Southern Arizona/New Mexico Border...
   Elevated fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon along
   the southern AZ/NM border. Southeasterly winds are forecast to
   increase to near 15 mph (with occasional gusts upwards of 25 mph) in
   response to the deepening thermal low to the west. Single digit to
   low teen RH values are expected, and fuels remain receptive per
   recent fire activity. 

   ...Northern Michigan...
   A dry continental air mass has moved into the central Great Lakes
   region on the eastern periphery of a surface high. The approach of a
   surface low/trough to the northwest through the day will increase
   southwesterly winds to 10-15 mph as RH values fall to near 20%.
   10-hour fuel moisture values in the 5-6% range are noted, as well as
   high ERC values per recent fuel analyses. Although winds should
   generally remain below elevated thresholds, pockets of elevated fire
   weather conditions are possible.



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