ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 171652

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1052 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

   Valid 171700Z - 181200Z

   ...Southern/Central High Plains...
   A mid-level jet at the base of an upper trough will progress into
   the central and southern Plains today while a lee trough/cyclone
   slowly deepens across KS/NE. The resultant downslope drying (15-20%
   by afternoon)and enhancement of westerly winds (up to 20 mph) in the
   lee of the Rockies will support elevated fire weather concerns amid
   dry fuels across portions of southeast CO/western KS and far
   east-central NM/TX Panhandle and far western OK this afternoon. Only
   minor adjustments were needed to Elevated highlights based on latest
   observational trends and short term model guidance consensus.

   ...Mid-Atlantic...
   An anomalously dry air mass under cool, deep-layer northwesterly
   flow remains over the Mid-Atlantic and Piedmont regions,  supporting
   current relative humidity in the 15-25% range. Sustained wind speeds
   will largely stay at or below 10 mph through the afternoon with
   occasional gusts around 20 mph across the Piedmont region. Localized
   enhancement of winds along the Blue Ridge Mountains is expected
   where sustained winds of 15 mph and higher gusts could occur, but
   cooler temperatures in the 50s and limited spatial extent of higher
   downslope winds should mitigate a more widespread fire weather
   concern for the area today.

   ..Williams.. 11/17/2025

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1252 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025/

   ...Synopsis...
   Fire weather concerns are expected for portions of the southern and
   central High Plains this afternoon. More localized concerns are
   possible across parts of the Mid-Atlantic where dry conditions will
   persist after breezy/dry conditions yesterday. 

   ...Southern/Central High Plains...
   Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts an upper wave traversing
   the central Rockies as of 06 UTC. Ahead of this feature, surface
   pressure falls are noted as a lee cyclone slowly intensifies. This
   surface low is expected to shift eastward through the afternoon,
   resulting in strengthening westerly downslope flow off the
   central/southern Rockies. Ensemble consensus suggests sustained
   winds of 15-20 mph (gusting to 25-30 mph) will be common for
   portions of eastern NM into the TX Panhandle as well as across
   south-central CO in proximity to terrain features. Downslope
   warming/drying coupled with ample daytime heating will likely result
   in RH minimums in the teens. While ERCs across much of the region
   are only modestly high (around the 80th percentile), limited
   rainfall in the past two weeks has likely allowed for adequate
   drying of finer fuels to warrant Elevated risk highlights.

   ...Mid-Atlantic...
   An unseasonably dry air mass is currently in place across the
   Mid-Atlantic region with dewpoints in the upper teens to low 20s
   (which are near the 10th percentile for mid-November). With
   similarly dry air upstream, RH values will likely fall into the
   15-25% range again today. However, unlike yesterday wind speeds will
   be more benign as surface high pressure builds into the region. Most
   guidance suggests wind speeds will remain near 10 mph, but
   occasional gusts into the 15-20 mph range appear possible given
   lingering strong flow aloft.