ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 121653
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1153 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025
Valid 121700Z - 131200Z
...Southwest...
Brief, locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible across
parts of far southwestern NM and eastern AZ this afternoon and
evening. West/northwesterly flow aloft behind a departing upper
trough will encourage downslope winds of 10-20 mph. Partially
overlapped with areas of low RH and somewhat dry fuels, a few hours
of locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. See the
prior outlook for additional information.
..Lyons.. 06/12/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1145 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025/
...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will overspread the western U.S. as mainly zonal
flow becomes established over the northern CONUS today. Upper
support associated with the western trough will encourage dry
downslope flow to the lee of both the Cascades and the Sierra. 15-20
mph sustained westerly surface winds, coinciding with 15-20 percent
RH, will overlap with dry fuels east of the Cascades, and across the
western Great Basin, warranting the continuance of Elevated fire
weather highlights.
U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 121918
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0218 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST NEVADA...
...19z Update...
Overall the prior forecast remains on track. Model consensus has
trended toward stronger winds (15-25 mph) and lower humidity in the
lee of the Cascades Friday. This will support widespread elevated,
and several hours of critical fire-weather concerns across northwest
and western NV. Have added a small critical across northwest NV
where the best overlap of dry/breezy conditions and supportive fuels
will occur.
..Lyons.. 06/12/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1145 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025/
...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will impinge on the northern Rockies while upper
ridging becomes established across the Plains toward the
Appalachians tomorrow (Friday). The passage of the Northern Rockies
trough will encourage yet another day of dry downslope flow to the
lee of both the Cascades and Sierra by afternoon. 15-20 mph
sustained westerly surface winds will overlap with 15-20 percent RH,
atop dry fuels, for several hours Friday afternoon, warranting
Elevated highlights.
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 122148
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0448 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025
Valid 141200Z - 201200Z
Strong flow aloft over much of the western CONUS is expected through
the forecast period as sub-tropical ridging shifts eastward. This
will favor dry surface conditions and increasingly strong wind
fields across the Great Basin and lee of the Cascades. Additionally,
isolated thunderstorms are possible through this weekend and into
next week. Fire-weather conditions are expected to increase through
next week.
...Northwest and Great Basin...
Westerly mid-level flow will continue over the Northwest and Great
Basin this weekend and much of next week. Dry downslope winds are
likely D3/Saturday atop drying fuels. With westerly downslope flow
of 15-20 mph overlapped with RH below 20%, elevated fire-weather
conditions are likely in the lee of the Sierra and through the
western Columbia Basin. Some localized threat may persist in the lee
of the Sierra and Cascade Gaps D4/Sunday.
The strongest winds aloft are likely to coincide with the passage of
several stronger embedded shortwaves passing through next week. The
most significant of these appears to be D5/Monday. More widespread
winds of 20-30 mph with RH below 20% are likely across the western
and central Great Basin. However, fuels farther south are less
receptive. This casts some uncertainty on how widespread
fire-weather concerns will be early next week. Still, enhanced
mid-level flow and favorable fire-weather pattern will likely
continue through the remainder of the extended forecast period.
...Dry Thunderstorms...
Continued troughing over the West will support isolated thunderstorm
chances late this weekend and into early next week across the
northern Great Basin and Northwest. Weak inland transport of
mid-level Pacific moisture should support weak buoyancy with very
dry surface conditions. Isolated lightning and a few drier storms
are possible, especially D5/Monday and D6/Tuesday. Thereafter, more
wetting rainfall appears likely across the Northwest as a cold front
approaches.
..Lyons.. 06/12/2025