U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL FNUS22 KWNS 240700 Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will cross the Southwest during the day, while a related 60-70 kt southwesterly midlevel jet overspreads the southern into central High Plains. In response, a lee cyclone will rapidly deepen over eastern CO/western KS, while a southward-extending dryline sharpens over parts of west TX. This large-scale pattern evolution will favor an expansive area of high-end critical fire-weather conditions across the southern into central High Plains during the afternoon. ...Southern into Central High Plains... Behind the dryline, strong downslope warming/drying and diurnal heating will result in a deep/dry boundary layer, characterized by surface temperatures in the 80s and single-digit to lower-teens RH. Here, a tightening surface pressure gradient peripheral to the deepening lee cyclone, coupled with mixing into the strong deep-layer southwesterly flow, will yield 30 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 45 mph) across eastern NM into southeastern CO. While confidence is high in the development of these extremely critical meteorological conditions, a potential lack of abundant and very dry fuels precludes Extremely Critical highlights at this time. ..Weinman.. 04/24/2024
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL FNUS28 KWNS 232024 Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0324 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 011200Z An active fire weather pattern will become situated over the southern High Plains late this week through the weekend. The passage of multiple mid-level troughs will encourage surface cyclone development and the eastward surge of a dryline each day Thursday-Sunday along the southern High Plains. Critically dry and windy conditions will become situated behind the dryline each day, with 70% Critical probabilities maintained where very windy and dry surface conditions will coincide for several hours during the afternoon. Furthermore, locally Extremely Critical surface winds/RH cannot be ruled out over portions of eastern New Mexico into far western Texas for Day 3/Thursday or Day 5/Saturday, when the core mid-level jet stream from both upper-level troughs overspread the region. By early next week, the ejection of these mid-level troughs, in favor of upper ridging, will encourage a more quiescent fire weather pattern over the southern High Plains, though dry surface conditions should persist. ..Squitieri.. 04/23/2024
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