U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL FNUS22 KWNS 200654 Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A strong midlevel westerly jet streak will cross the northern Rockies during peak heating, while a related cold front overspreads the region. This will promote strong, post-frontal westerly surface winds across portions of northern MT, which could briefly overlap 20-30 percent RH. As a result, locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. Farther east, the southern periphery of a belt of strong deep-layer northwesterly flow will overspread MN, WI, and Lower MI. Boundary-layer heating and related mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will yield breezy/gusty surface winds amid 25-35 percent RH. While locally elevated conditions are possible, uncertainty regarding fuels and marginal winds/RH limit confidence in the large-fire threat. Lastly, locally elevated conditions are possible over portions of east-central FL during the afternoon, where diurnal heating amid enhanced deep-layer westerly flow should favor breezy/gusty surface winds and around 30 percent RH. Overall, these conditions appear too localized for an Elevated area at this time. ..Weinman.. 04/20/2024
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL FNUS28 KWNS 192248 Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook RESENT 3 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0548 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z An upper-level ridging pattern will persist across the western half of the CONUS through at least Day 6/Wednesday, as multiple mid-level troughs amplify while traversing the CONUS east of the Mississippi River. Medium-range guidance members depict an appreciable chance for accumulating rainfall from portions of the southern Plains to the East Coast, which in combination with moist low-level conditions, should limit significant wildfire-spread concerns. By Days 7-8 (next Thursday-Friday), medium-range guidance shows a mid-level trough amplifying over the Rockies, encouraging surface cyclone development along the High Plains. A dryline should become established across western Kansas into western Texas each afternoon, with Elevated to Critically dry and windy conditions likely behind the dryline. However, appreciable rainfall accumulations may occur within the next few days over these same areas. Since the impacts of rainfall upon available fuels is not yet understood, higher Critical probabilities have been withheld this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 04/19/2024
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