ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 081648
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1148 AM CDT Thu May 08 2025
Valid 081700Z - 091200Z
The Elevated area was expanded based on the latest observations and
high-resolution ensemble forecast guidance. RH has already dropped
to 15-30% in northwest Minnesota with wind gusts of 15-30 mph. In
western North Dakota, RH is generally 25-35% with sustained
south-southwest winds of 15-25 mph gusting 25-35 mph. With daytime
heating and the approaching cold front, elevated to locally critical
conditions are expected to develop across western North Dakota into
northwest Minnesota this afternoon into the early evening.
An IsoDryT area was added as well in western North Dakota. There is
a 10-30% chance of isolated to scattered high-based showers and
thunderstorms across western North Dakota late this afternoon into
the evening along/ahead of an approaching cold front, with the area
along the pre-frontal trough likely a genesis zone. Precipitable
water values of 0.5-0.8", storm motions of 10-25 mph, and cloud
bases of ~3km AGL will help limit wetting rainfall, although some
training could be possible before winds aloft turn more westerly.
Gusty and erratic winds are also possible with these storms.
..Nauslar.. 05/08/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1250 AM CDT Thu May 08 2025/
...Synopsis...
Elevated fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon across
portions of western North Dakota. 05 UTC surface analysis shows a
surface low developing in the lee of the Canadian Rockies, which
will track to the east through the day. Southerly winds are forecast
to increase to 15-20 mph across ND ahead of a southeastward moving
cold front out of MT and Saskatchewan. Although isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected along this boundary
by early evening, there should be a 3-4 hour wind during the
afternoon with warm temperatures in the low/mid 80s, RH values in
the low 20s, and breezy conditions. Although spring green up is
underway, dead grasses remain across the fuel landscape and are
sufficiently dry to carry large fires (as evidenced by a couple of
large fires in recent days across western ND). Similar wind/RH
conditions could develop along the MT/Canadian border within the
post-frontal regime, but wetting rainfall over the past three days
has likely mitigated fuel status for the time being. Elsewhere
across the country, widespread rain chances and weak gradient winds
will limit additional fire weather concerns.
U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 081825
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0125 PM CDT Thu May 08 2025
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
There is a chance of isolated mixed wet/dry thunderstorms in
portions of southern Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin along/ahead
of an approaching cold front. Fuels are in or entering the spring
dip in this area and could be receptive to lightning ignition.
However, precipitable water values are likely to be 0.8-1" with
dewpoints in the 50s, and lightning amounts could be minimal over
receptive fuels. Given the potential of hot, dry, and windy
conditions emerging Sunday into early next week, this area will
continue to be monitored. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track,
and please see the previous discussion.
..Nauslar.. 05/08/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1250 AM CDT Thu May 08 2025/
...Synopsis...
Fire weather potential appears limited for Friday across the
country. The upper trough currently across the central U.S. will
continue to meander east through the next 48 hours. This will bring
widespread rain chances to much of the MS/OH River Valleys and the
Southeast over the next two days. To the west, upper ridging will
favor drier conditions, but weak low-level winds should modulate the
potential for fire spread. Breezy and dry conditions may develop
through the Red River Valley of the North Friday afternoon after a
dry cold frontal passage, but confidence in sustained winds above
elevated thresholds (15 mph) during peak heating is too low to
warrant risk highlights.
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 082151
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0451 PM CDT Thu May 08 2025
Valid 101200Z - 161200Z
An upper-level ridge over the West will begin to shift eastward over
the central US and Great Lakes this weekend through early next week
as an upper-level trough moves into the West. Above normal
temperatures will shift from the northern Intermountain West Day
3/Saturday to over the northern Plains and Great Lakes Day 4/Sunday
into early next week. Scattered precipitation will fall across the
northern half to two-thirds of the West, with mountain snow,
especially in the northern Rockies. An upper low will slowly migrate
east-northeast from the Lower Mississippi Valley over the Southeast
through mid-next week. Heavy precipitation is expected from Florida
and the Deep South through the Carolinas.
...Day 4/Sunday - Day 5/Monday: northern Plains into the Upper
Midwest...
Southerly flow will strengthen over the Plains, especially the
northern Plains into the Upper Midwest this weekend through early
next week. With above normal temperatures and the dry return flow,
elevated to critical fire weather conditions are likely Day 4/Sunday
- Day 5/Monday with a 40% probability introduced. There remains some
uncertainty regarding when/where the low-level moisture will
increase across the central/northern Plains into the Upper Midwest.
Fuels guidance indicates receptive fuels, including certain fuels
entering or already in there spring dip.
There is the possibility of isolated dry thunderstorms from the
Nebraska Panhandle into the western Dakotas Day 4/Sunday - Day
5/Monday. However, there is too much forecast uncertainty to include
probabilities at this time.
...Great Basin into the Southwest...
As the deep upper-level trough moves into the West, dry/windy
conditions will overspread the Intermountain West, especially from
the Great Basin through the Southwest. The dry/windy conditions will
start Day 3/Saturday from the interior Pacific Northwest and
western/northern Great Basin and shift south/east across the
Intermountain West through Day 6/Tuesday. Recent precipitation has
reduced fuel receptiveness across these areas, but portions of the
Southwest may need to be included in future outlooks, especially if
probabilities of high-end critical to extremely critical conditions
increase.
..Nauslar.. 05/08/2025