ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 111951

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0251 PM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

   Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

   Only minor adjustments were made to the D2 Fire Outlook Isolated Dry
   Thunderstorm area to expand into north-western Arizona in alignment
   with recent hi-res guidance. See previous discussion below for more
   information.

   ..Thornton.. 08/11/2025

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0135 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025/

   ...Synopsis...
   Isolated dry thunderstorms will remain the primary fire weather
   concern for Tuesday across the country. Latest forecast guidance
   hints that a deeply-mixed, but adequately buoyant, environment will
   remain in place across central AZ on the northern fringe of deeper
   monsoonal moisture. Forcing for ascent will be fairly weak and
   largely driven by orographic ascent along the Mogollon Rim. However,
   several deterministic CAM and recent HREF guidance hints at the
   potential for at least a few thunderstorms. This thermodynamic
   environment has yielded a mixture of wet and dry thunderstorms over
   the past 24 hours, so a similar combination appears probable for
   Tuesday. Fine fuels largely remain dry across the region, and recent
   lightning-caused fires hint that the fuel environment should support
   at least some fire starts. 

   ...Pacific Northwest...
   A weak mid-level trough is forecast to move across the Pacific
   Northwest on Tuesday. While flow aloft will be fairly modest, the
   zonal flow over the Cascades and northern Sierra Nevada will likely
   induce a downslope flow regime within an antecedent dry environment
   with receptive fuels. Ensemble support was too limited to warrant
   additional highlights, but localized elevated fire weather
   conditions appear possible across far northwest NV, eastern OR, and
   southern WA Tuesday afternoon.

      

   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 112142

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0442 PM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

   Valid 131200Z - 191200Z

   Upper-level troughing will continue across the Pacific Northwest
   D3/Wednesday, with breezy westerly downslope winds amid dry surface
   conditions. Moisture will increase through the end of the week, with
   showers and thunderstorms increasing in coverage. An increase in
   trends in PW has been noted over the last 24-48 hours, which should
   promote mostly wetting rainfall. As the western high shifts into the
   Four Corners Region D3/Wednesday through D7/Sunday, monsoonal
   moisture will return northward across portions of Arizona and Utah.

   ...Dry Thunderstorms...
   With the aforementioned shift of the surface high into the Four
   Corners region, an increase in wetting rainfall is expected to
   spread northward across Arizona. A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms may
   be possible initially. On the fringe of this deeper moisture surge,
   isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible across portions of far
   eastern California into central Nevada D3/Wednesday before spreading
   into portions of southern Idaho by D4/Thursday. Fuels in these
   regions are critically dry, with little monsoon season rainfall and
   recorded drought conditions. 

   ...Wind/RH...
   Breezy conditions are expected across the Pacific Northwest as the
   pattern becomes more progressive, with broad troughing and several
   shortwave disturbances moving through early to mid-week. The most
   widespread winds are expected D3/Wednesday, when Elevated to locally
   Critical conditions are expected across portions of the Columbia
   River Basin in eastern Washington and Oregon and across southeastern
   Oregon into southern Idaho. A 40% delineation was maintained across
   Washington and added across southeastern Oregon/southern Idaho with
   this outlook to cover this potential.

   ..Thornton.. 08/11/2025