U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL FNUS22 KWNS 250614 Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0114 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO... ...Synopsis... A midlevel low and attendant surface cyclone will advance northeastward from the central Plains into the Upper MS Valley. On the backside of this system, a belt of strong deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will persist across a post-dryline environment over southern NM and parts of the southern High Plains. This will favor another day of critical fire-weather conditions across the region during the afternoon. ...Southern New Mexico and much of the Southern High Plains... Along the southwestern periphery of the primary surface cyclone, a tight pressure gradient will persist across the area. This, combined with boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft, will yield 20-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts). At the same time, continued downslope flow amid a dry antecedent air mass will contribute to 10-15 percent afternoon RH. As a result, critical fire-weather conditions are expected across southern NM and much of the southern High Plains, given increasingly dry fuels over the area. ..Weinman.. 04/25/2024
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL FNUS28 KWNS 241945 Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 021200Z A pair of mid-level troughs will traverse the southern Plains Friday into this weekend, supporting surface cyclone development and a trailing dryline surging eastward across the southern High Plains each day. Critically dry and windy conditions are expected, with 70 percent Critical probabilities maintained for portions of the southern High Plains where dry and windy conditions will overlap through much of the afternoon for both Friday and Saturday. By Sunday, the second mid-level trough will eject into the middle Mississippi Valley region, prompting some weakening of the surface winds behind the dryline over the southern High Plains, where only 40 percent Critical probabilities have been maintained. Thereafter, upper-level ridging will set in over the Plains states, with dry conditions persisting over the southern High Plains. Another mid-level trough will impinge on the Interior West by the middle of next week. Dry and windy conditions should overspread the region, though questions remain regarding fuel receptiveness, precluding the addition of Critical probabilities. ..Squitieri.. 04/24/2024
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