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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 071649

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1149 AM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025

   Valid 071700Z - 081200Z

   ...Central Nevada...
   Increasing mid-level flow on the southeastern periphery of a cut off
   low off the northern CA coast will overspread portions of the Great
   Basin today. A very dry boundary layer with single digit relative
   humidity and sustained south/southwest winds of around 15 mph will
   support elevated fire weather conditions over portions of central
   Nevada this afternoon. Otherwise, previous forecast (see below) for
   isolated dry thunderstorms across far northern CA into south-central
   OR remains consistent with latest short term model guidance.

   ..Williams.. 07/07/2025

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025/

   ...Synopsis...
   A midlevel low off the northern/central CA coast will move slowly
   northward through the period. Related midlevel ascent will
   overspread northern CA into southern OR, aiding in the development
   of isolated high-based thunderstorms over the higher terrain during
   the afternoon. Deep inverted-V soundings with 0.5-0.75 inch PW will
   favor dry thunderstorms, with an associated risk of
   lightning-induced ignitions and gusty outflow winds atop receptive
   fuels. 

   Farther south, enhanced southerly flow peripheral to the midlevel
   low will overspread a well-mixed boundary layer across the Great
   Basin. This will promote locally dry/breezy conditions, with locally
   elevated fire-weather conditions possible over parts of
   central/southern NV during the afternoon.

U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 072200

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0500 PM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025

   Valid 091200Z - 151200Z

   ...Day 3/Wednesday...
   Stronger west winds with the arrival of a mid-level short wave
   trough and attendant cold front are expected across the Columbia
   Basin where fuels remain dry. Although cooler temperatures and
   slightly higher humidity arrive with the cold front, sustained west
   winds of 15-25 mph will continue to support a fire weather threat
   amid dry fuels across the Columbia Basin. A mid-level short wave
   trough will translate over a broad ridge situated over the
   Southwestern U.S. Collocation of ascent ahead of a mid-level jet max
   and antecedent mid-level moisture should support isolated
   thunderstorms with limited rainfall across southeastern
   OR/southwestern ID on Day 3/Wednesday. The accelerated mid-level
   flow on the southern periphery of the aforementioned short wave
   along with a deep/well-mixed boundary layer will promote elevated
   west-southwest winds across much of the Great Basin and portions of
   southern Idaho. The breezy and very dry conditions support at least
   a 40% probability for critical fire weather conditions across the
   region amid an expected dry fuelscape.

   ...Day 4/Thursday...
   The mid-level short wave edges eastward into the Southern Rockies
   bringing elevated west winds to the Intermountain West and great
   Four Corners region Day 4/Thursday. A 40% probability for critical
   fire weather was introduced into southern UT and northern AZ where
   fuels will go under several days of drying through midweek, becoming
   more receptive to wildfire spread.

   ...Day 5-8/Friday-Monday...
   Building heat is expected across much of the Western U.S. through
   the weekend under an expanding mid-level ridge over southern CA
   which will promote a limited wind threat across the region. Monsoon
   moisture and associated thunderstorms will remain confined to
   southern AZ and NM through the weekend.

   ..Williams.. 07/07/2025

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