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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 211526

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0926 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

   Valid 211700Z - 221200Z

   The previous forecast remains on track with no changes required.
   Recent 15 UTC surface observations show winds increasing to around
   15 mph with occasionally stronger gusts and RH falling into the
   30-40% range. This aligns well with recent guidance and supports the
   ongoing forecast (outlined in the discussion below).

   ..Moore.. 11/21/2024

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1150 PM CST Wed Nov 20 2024/

   ...Synopsis...
   With a strong upper low over the lower Great Lakes region, strong
   flow aloft will overspread portions of the Southeast into Florida. A
   deepening low east of the DelMarVa will promote enhanced surface
   wind behind the cold front. With minimal precipitation falling over
   North Florida, where fuels are quite dry for this time of year, a
   period of elevated fire weather is expected. Winds of 10-15 mph and
   RH perhaps near 20% in some spots can be expected by the afternoon.
   The boundary layer should also deepen sufficiently to support gusts
   of up to 20 mph.
      

U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook


   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 211830

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1230 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

   Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

   An Elevated risk area has been introduced for portions of central
   FL. Latest guidance has trended towards slightly stronger winds
   along the FL peninsula tomorrow as a secondary cold surge pushes
   across the region. Gusts up to 15-20 mph will be possible -
   especially during the late morning hours - with RH reductions into
   the 25-35% range. Dry/windy conditions today across the area and
   limited rainfall over the past three days should allow for adequate
   drying of fine fuels to support a fire concern.

   ..Moore.. 11/21/2024

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1151 PM CST Wed Nov 20 2024/

   ...Synopsis...
   A similar upper-level pattern to Thursday will again be present on
   Friday. The strong upper low will continue east and a complex
   surface low evolution will occur off the Mid-Atlantic/New England
   coast. Fire weather conditions are expected to be minimal for most
   areas. Northern into central Florida will again be dry. Temperature
   will be a bit cooler and RH will be a bit higher. Boundary layer
   mixing will also be less than Thursday, tempering gust potential.
   With the strongest winds/lowest RH expected over less receptive
   fuels, highlights will be withheld. Locally elevated conditions can
   be expected.


U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook


   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 212116

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0316 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

   Valid 231200Z - 291200Z

   Fire weather concerns remain limited through the extended period.
   The upper trough over the Great Lakes/Ohio River Valley will
   continue to promote widespread rain/snow chances across these
   regions and into the Northeast over the next 48 hours. The
   precipitation associated with this system, combined with seasonal
   temperatures over the next several days, will limit fuel concerns
   across the northern/northeastern CONUS. A breakdown of the upper
   ridge over the central U.S. will transition into a more zonal flow
   regime over this weekend. As this occurs, increasing
   west/southwesterly mid-level flow - augmented by transient shortwave
   troughs - may promote areas of dry/windy conditions in the lee of
   the southern Rockies. Additionally, a dry return flow regime may
   become established across the southern Plains this weekend as a lee
   trough deepens along the High Plains; however, recent widespread
   rainfall should limit fuel status. This regime will be short-lived
   as cold air intrusions overspread the Plains behind a deepening
   surface low during the early to mid-week period. Recent
   precipitation, cool temperatures, and weak gradient winds should
   limit fire concerns across the western CONUS.

   ..Moore.. 11/21/2024
      




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