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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 091649
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1049 AM CST Sun Nov 09 2025
Valid 091700Z - 101200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN TEXAS...
...Southern Texas and Lower Mississippi River Basin...
A dry, post-frontal air mass continues to infiltrate into
central/southern TX and lower Mississippi River Basin. Current
surface observations across central/southern TX show north-northeast
winds of 15-20 mph with higher gusts and relative humidity nearing
20%. Robust north-northeast winds 15-25 mph combined with minimum
relative humidity this afternoon of 15-20% (locally close to 10%)
and dry fuels will support a critical fire weather environment
across southern TX through the afternoon. Critical highlights were
expanded slightly southward owing to current observation trends and
short term forecast guidance. Elevated fire weather conditions
surrounding the critical area were maintained across
central/southeast TX and southwest LA where slightly lower wind
speeds and marginally higher humidity exist.
...Southern California...
Expansive surface high pressure settling into the Intermountain West
and Great Plains will continue to support a dry, offshore flow
across southern California today. Current LAX-DAG pressure gradient
of around -5 mb will continue to promote east-northeast winds of
10-20 mph with current gusts exceeding 30 mph in wind-prone gaps of
the San Rafael and San Gabriel ranges today. These winds coupled
with relative humidity as low as 15% and dry fuels will promote
elevated fire weather concerns at least through the late morning
hours. A typical reduction of offshore pressure gradient magnitude
is expected later today, which will gradually reduce fire weather
threat by late afternoon.
..Williams.. 11/09/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1223 AM CST Sun Nov 09 2025/
...Synopsis...
A broad mid-level trough will amplify over the eastern CONUS through
the day today, which should result in an expansive surface high
pressure area over the central CONUS. North of a surface cold front,
strong surface flow (20-25 mph) is expected across portions of
southern Texas. In the dry post-frontal air mass, RH is expected to
be in the 15-20% range across the region, and fuels are fairly dry,
so have maintained the Critical fire weather risk in this area.
Surrounding the Critical risk is an Elevated highlight that covers
portions of southeastern Texas and southwest Louisiana, where fuels
are modestly dry due to ongoing drought.
Additionally, the expansive high pressure is expected to tighten the
pressure gradients in southern California, with the LAX-DAG and
LAX-WJF pressure gradients nearing -5 mb during the day on Sunday.
This should induce downslope flow with sustained winds of 15-25 mph
with higher gusts, particularly in wind-prone gaps. With the
downslope drying, RH is expected to be near 15-20%. Fine fuels in
the region should dry with the lowered RH and be receptive to fire
spread, so have maintained an Elevated highlight for fire weather in
the area.
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 090624
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1224 AM CST Sun Nov 09 2025
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...Synopsis...
A large, amplified trough over the eastern CONUS will translate
eastward through the day on Monday, pushing a front off the Florida
coast by evening. Behind this front, a dry air mass will be present,
with 25-30% RH and 20-25 mph winds, and some pockets of dry fuels
across southern Georgia may prove receptive to fire spread. Some
uncertainty remains on how much precipitation will fall ahead of the
front passage on Sunday evening, and this may limit the fire weather
risk. However, enough confidence exists to delineate an Elevated
risk area over southern Georgia.
Across southern California, the LAX-DAG and LAX-WJF pressure
gradients remain around -5 mb for portions of the day on Monday,
which may induce periods of offshore flow and drying. RH is expected
to remain near 15-20% through the day with poor overnight recovery
the previous night. However, due to uncertainty on how long the wind
may persist, an Elevated area is not introduced at this time, though
this may be reevaluated in the future.
..Supinie.. 11/09/2025
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 082151
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0351 PM CST Sat Nov 08 2025
Valid 101200Z - 161200Z
...Day 3/Monday - Southeast and Gulf Coast States...
A highly amplified large-scale trough will continue moving eastward
across the eastern CONUS. Within the base of the trough, strong
deep-layer westerly flow will overspread a dry post-frontal air mass
across the Southeast (including the FL Peninsula). While this may
promote elevated fire-weather conditions, preceding rainfall along
the passing cold front limits confidence in the development of
critical conditions -- precluding probabilities at this time.
Farther west, dry and modestly breezy post-frontal conditions will
continue across much of the Gulf Coast states. Locally elevated
conditions are possible, though the lack of a stronger surface wind
field should limit the overall risk.
...Day 4/Tuesday - Central TX...
Moderate midlevel westerly flow will become established across the
central/southern Rockies and adjacent Plains. Embedded within the
flow, medium-range guidance depicts a subtle/embedded midlevel
impulse moving into the southern Plains. This will promote a
deepening lee trough and dry/breezy southerly return flow across the
southern Plains. Given modestly receptive fuels across central TX,
elevated to locally critical conditions are expected.
...Days 7-8/Friday-Saturday...
A substantial midlevel trough will advance eastward across the West,
with strong flow impinging on the Rockies and eventually the Great
Plains. While timing/evolution of the midlevel trough is uncertain,
the overall pattern may favor increasing fire-weather potential
across parts of the central/southern Plains late in the extended
forecast period.
..Weinman.. 11/08/2025
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