U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL FNUS22 KWNS 221909 Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0109 PM CST Sun Dec 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Update... No modifications to the forecast are required for Day 2/Monday. Please see the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Barnes.. 12/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0142 AM CST Sun Dec 22 2024/ ...Synopsis... A weak shortwave trough will overspread the southern Rockies, promoting weak lee cyclogenesis and locally dry/breezy conditions over the TX Trans-Pecos region. However, these conditions will be too marginal for any fire-weather concerns.
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL FNUS28 KWNS 222224 Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0424 PM CST Sun Dec 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z The synoptic pattern in the extended will consist of at least a couple of shortwave troughs traversing the southern and central CONUS. One such wave entering the Four Corners region Day 4/Wednesday will encourage lee surface cyclogenesis across southeastern CO, and subsequently increasing west to southwesterly surface flow over southern NM. However, both wind speeds and RH should remain well below and above (respectively) critical thresholds limiting the overall fire weather threat. Further east, surface high pressure will continue to support cool/moist conditions in conjunction with light surface winds. As this wave moves into the Southern Plains Day 5/Thursday, some increasing downslope flow on its backside will then develop across portions of West TX. Another shortwave trough will quickly follow the aforementioned wave Day 6/Friday, moving over the southern Rockies and eventually the Southern Plains. An associated surface cyclone is expected to deepen near the High Plains of TX as this occurs. Downslope westerlies at the surface will accompany this low from central to southern NM, into west TX. Although critical probabilities appear non-zero at this time across West TX, considering breezy surface wind speeds, RH and projected fuel receptiveness are not likely to promote a significant fire weather threat at this time. ..Barnes.. 12/22/2024
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