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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

   FNUS21 KWNS 251631

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1131 AM CDT Sat Sep 25 2021

   Valid 251700Z - 261200Z


   No changes necessary to the ongoing forecast.

   ..Wendt.. 09/25/2021

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Sat Sep 25 2021/

   A strong upper trough across the Great Lakes will continue to deepen
   as it moves eastward into the northeastern US and southeastern
   Canada today. To the west, weak ridging is forecast to become
   established within the northern branch of split mid-level flow
   across the northern and central Rockies. At the same time, a closed
   low will meander eastward off Baja California, as a strong trough
   approaches the Pacific Northwest. The increase in mid-level ridging
   will support warm and dry conditions across the central Rockies. 

   ...Montana and Wyoming...
   Beneath the aforementioned ridge, warm temperatures and dry
   conditions are expected across much of Montana and Wyoming through
   the afternoon. The dry airmass will support surface relative
   humidity values below 20% in the lee of the Rockies. Although,
   locally higher RH appears likely over western Montana where
   temperatures are expected to be cooler. With relatively weak
   mid-level flow in place due to the shortwave ridging, surface winds
   are not expected to support of widespread fire weather conditions.
   However, local enhancement to near 20 mph from terrain and the
   development of a weak lee trough may support a few hours of locally
   elevated fire weather conditions across portions of Wyoming and

   ...Southern Plains...
   Broad but weak high pressure over the southern half of the CONUS
   will support warm and dry conditions across much of the southern
   Plains this afternoon/evening. Widespread surface humidity values
   below 20% are expected across portions of western Oklahoma, Kansas
   and into the Texas Panhandle. Here, fuels remain dry and favorable
   for fire spread. However, winds generally below 15 mph should limit
   the spatial extent of any sustained fire weather conditions.

U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

   FNUS22 KWNS 251858

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0158 PM CDT Sat Sep 25 2021

   Valid 261200Z - 271200Z


   Critical fire weather appears likely from northwestern Oklahoma into
   south-central Kansas. Above normal temperatures into the 90s F will
   support RH of 15-20% in some areas along with the expected strong
   winds. The northeastward and southwestward extent of critical
   meteorological conditions has some uncertainty. Some guidance does
   show similar conditions into northeast Kansas and the Texas
   Panhandle. Mid-level clouds are increasing and less receptive fuels
   in the Panhandle and marginal RH in northeastern Kansas will keep
   concerns elevated. The forecast remains unchanged elsewhere.

   ..Wendt.. 09/25/2021

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CDT Sat Sep 25 2021/

   Across the western US, southwesterly mid-level flow will begin to
   increase ahead of a strong Pacific trough moving onshore across the
   Northwest. To the south, a cutoff low will move eastward, rejoining
   broad westerly flow across the Southwest. At the surface, a lee low
   will move southeastward across the central Plains, trailing a weak
   cold front. Dry and windy conditions are expected ahead of the low
   through much of the southern Plains and across the Great Basin where
   fuels are dry.

   ...Southern Plains...
   As the previously mentioned lee low develops and moves southeastward
   across the Plains early Sunday, increasing surface pressure
   gradients will bolster low-level southwesterly flow across portions
   of the southern Plains. Aided by the development of a low-level jet,
   widespread surface winds of 20-25 mph are expected with higher gusts
   possible nearer the low in eastern Kansas. Model soundings show a
   dry airmass in place with surface RH below 20% likely across western
   Oklahoma and portions of the Texas Panhandle. Increasing cloud cover
   and greater surface moisture in eastern Kansas will favor slightly
   higher humidity values generally below 30%. With regional fuels near
   the 80th percentile of dryness, widespread elevated to locally
   critical fire weather conditions appear likely. More widespread
   critical conditions may develop should the corridor of stronger
   winds become better aligned with drier surface conditions across
   portions of Oklahoma and Texas.

   ...Northern Great Basin...
   As southwesterly flow from the approaching Pacific trough begins to
   spread inland, low-level winds are projected to increase to near
   15-20 mph across portions of northern California and northwestern
   Nevada. Here, persistent warm and dry conditions with surface RH
   below 15%, along with mostly dry fuels will support elevated fire
   weather conditions through the afternoon.

U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

   FNUS28 KWNS 252105

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0405 PM CDT Sat Sep 25 2021

   Valid 271200Z - 031200Z

   The main feature of interest continues to be an upper-level trough
   across the Northwest. This trough will lift north and east with
   time. Guidance shows some semblance of a shortwave trough that will
   dig southward from the base of the larger trough by the middle of
   next week. Towards the end of next week, the upper-level pattern
   becomes less predictable, but the general consensus is that a
   upper-level ridging will occur over much of the US with
   smaller-scale shortwave troughs/cutoff lows within the broader
   anticylonic flow regime. At the surface, a cold front will accompany
   the initial Northwest trough and move through a good portion of the
   Great Basin by the middle of next week.

   ...Northwest Nevada...
   Critical fire weather appears more likely in the immediate lee of
   the northern Sierra on Monday. Strong winds at low to mid-levels
   will promote 20-30 mph winds along with RH of 10-15% prior to the
   cold front moving through the area. GBCC fuel guidance indicates
   this region is still receptive to fire spread.

   ...Northern High Plains...
   As the upper-level trough lifts northeast, a deepening surface
   cyclone in eastern Montana will strengthen southerly low-level winds
   ahead of a cold front. This should bring potentially critical fire
   weather during the afternoon. Fuels remain at least marginally dry
   in this region.

   ...Northern California...
   High pressure behind the cold front will lead to
   northerly/northeasterly winds into northern California. While the
   surface pressure gradient continues to look modest, it is possible
   that areas of fire weather concerns will develop in the Sacramento
   Valley on Tuesday into early Wednesday. Guidance is consistent in
   placing lowered RH in the Valley, but winds are still too lacking
   for highlights.

   ...Southern California...
   The evolution of the upper-level trough across the Northwest this
   weekend has continued to vary in model guidance. Recent trends,
   however, have been for a shortwave trough to dig south from this
   parent trough into the lower Colorado Basin along with a more
   amplified shortwave ridge to its west. At the surface, this would
   promote a stronger anticyclone in the Great Basin. Fire weather
   concern due to offshore winds could develop on Wednesday into
   Thursday should these particular solutions verify. Given the low
   predictability of this pattern highlights will be withheld.

   ..Wendt.. 09/25/2021

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