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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

   FNUS21 KWNS 211635

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1135 AM CDT Mon Jun 21 2021

   Valid 211700Z - 221200Z


   No changes to the ongoing forecast. Strong heating ahead of a cold
   front now in parts of western/central New Mexico may promote locally
   elevated to near critical fire weather in southeastern Arizona. The
   risk should be spatially confined and relatively brief this

   ..Wendt.. 06/21/2021

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0208 AM CDT Mon Jun 21 2021/

   The mid-level flow pattern across the CONUS will become more
   amplified today, as a broad trough deepens across the Great Lakes.
   Over the West, a mid-level ridge will be compressed by an
   approaching upper low off the California coast. Increasing westerly
   flow aloft will spill over into the Great Basin supporting critical
   fire weather conditions, while thunderstorms develop over the West

   ...Southern Great Basin and Vicinity...
   Ahead of the Pacific trough, southwesterly mid-level low will
   increase across eastern California and west-southwestern Nevada.
   Warm and dry conditions will persist under the northward extension
   of the ridge, as westerly downslope flow increases through the day.
   Across the southern Great Basin, widespread surface RH below 15% is
   expected by early afternoon. As winds increase through the diurnal
   cycle, 20-25 mph sustained westerlies will overlap with the dry
   airmass, supporting critical fire weather conditions. 

   ...West Coast Dry Thunder...
   Moist onshore flow will develop across much of the West Coast ahead
   of the mid-level low. Regional model soundings show modest buoyancy
   developing above relatively dry sub-cloud layers across northern
   California and southern Oregon. Isolated dry lightning strikes
   appear likely over dry fuels. Moisture should continue to increase
   through the evening and overnight hours, augmenting precipitation
   efficiency. However, fast-moving and high-based storms will likely
   still support a few dry strikes as the mode becomes wetter.



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