ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 190540

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1240 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025

   Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

   ...Synopsis...
   The upper-level pattern on Sunday will be similar to Saturday.
   However, stronger mid-level flow may nudge southward as the upper
   trough amplifies through the period in the Northwest. Surface
   troughing will develop in the northern High Plains.

   ...Northern Great Basin...
   Another day of elevated fire weather can be expected. With the
   stronger mid-level winds extending more to the south, greater
   spatial coverage of at least briefly 20+ mph winds may occur.
   Overall, however, 15-20 mph winds will be most common. RH of 10-20%
   will be possible in Nevada while Idaho will more likely see 15-20%
   by the afternoon. Model guidance does show some potential for high
   cloud cover which could also limit the duration of critical
   conditions. Ensemble guidance shows low probability of sustained
   critical conditions likely on account of those uncertainties.

   ..Wendt.. 07/19/2025

      

   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 182041

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0341 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025

   Valid 201200Z - 261200Z

   A mid/upper-level tough is forecast to deepen across the Pacific
   Northwest Day 3/Sunday into Day 4/Monday. Thereafter, the evolution
   of the trough is somewhat uncertain, largely due to
   inter/intra-model variability. Though, many recent solutions now
   suggest some form of splitting with a portion of the trough ejecting
   across the northern Rockies and another becoming cutoff (or
   redeveloping) off/near the coast of California/Oregon through the
   remainder of the week. 

   ...Day 3/Sunday - Day 5/Tuesday: Wind/RH...
   Increasing mid-level winds - associated with the aforementioned
   trough - will promote a broadening area of dry/breezy southwesterly
   flow Day 3/Sunday across portions of the northern Great Basin, far
   northeastern California, southeastern Oregon, and southwest Montana.
   At this time, locally critical conditions appear most likely across
   wind-prone areas of the Snake River Plain in Idaho. 

   Fire weather conditions are forecast to shift a bit southward while
   also increasing in coverage and intensity Day 4/Monday, as the
   aforementioned trough continues to deepen. While an area of critical
   fire weather conditions appears probable, relatively poor run-to-run
   model consistency precludes increasing critical probabilities to 70%
   at this time.  
    
   Dry/breezy conditions are forecast to linger into Day 5/Tuesday
   across the Great Basin. Though, relaxing mid-level winds and reduced
   surface pressure gradients should promote lighter surface winds and
   locally elevated fire weather conditions.

   ...Day 4/Monday - Day 5/Tuesday: Dry Thunderstorms...
   Isolated dry thunderstorms are possible Day 4/Monday into Day
   5/Tuesday across portions of northern Great Basin, Northwest, and
   northern Rockies, as increasing moisture associated with the
   aforementioned trough impinges on the area. While forecast guidance
   suggests precipitable water values may be relatively high (0.8 - 1+
   inch), somewhat fast-moving storm motions and critically receptive
   fuels suggest a mix of wet/dry modes. At this time, uncertainty
   remains too large to introduce probabilities for dry thunderstorms.

   ..Elliott.. 07/18/2025