ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 161659
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1159 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025
Valid 161700Z - 171200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN
NEVADA...SOUTHWESTERN UTAH AND NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA...
...Great Basin and Southwest...
Current surface observations show single digit relative humidity
across the southern Great Basin and parts of the Southwest.
Increasing mid-level flow ahead of an upper-level trough coupled
with a very dry/well-mixed boundary layer will promote sustained
surface winds of 20-25 mph across a corridor from southern Nevada,
northwestern Arizona and much of southern Utah with critical
highlights maintained amid the very low relative humidity regime and
dry fuels. Elevated fire weather concerns continue for a broader
area of the Great Basin and Southwest as the upper-level trough
translates eastward through the region. Otherwise, forecast remains
largely on track.
..Williams.. 06/16/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025/
...Synopsis...
A midlevel trough will advance eastward from the West Coast across
parts of the Great Basin/Intermountain West today. Within the base
of the trough, moderate deep-layer westerly flow will overspread the
Great Basin, while a weak surface low/trough evolves over the Lower
CO River Valley.
...Southern NV into Southwest UT and far Northwest AZ...
Along the southern periphery of mid/high-level clouds preceding the
midlevel trough, strong diurnal heating of a warm/dry antecedent air
mass will result in a deeply mixed boundary layer across the
southern Great Basin. The deep mixing into the enhanced flow aloft,
along with a tightening pressure gradient peripheral to the surface
low/trough, will yield single-digit RH and 20-25 mph sustained
southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) across southern NV,
southwest UT, and far northwest AZ. Given increasingly dry fuels
across the region, critical fire-weather conditions are expected.
Farther north, modest westerly flow aloft across the Cascades will
contribute to locally dry/breezy downslope flow into the Columbia
Basin, where elevated fire-weather conditions are forecast.
U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 162000
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0300 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR EASTERN ARIZONA AND WESTERN
NEW MEXICO...
An upper-level short wave trough and increased mid-level winds will
continue to bring Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions to
the portions of the Southwest Tuesday. Latest model guidance
consensus shows a slight northeastward push of stronger
west-northwest winds into northwestern New Mexico for Tuesday.
Sustained wind speeds of 15-25 mph combined with RH below 10 percent
will promote Critical fire weather conditions within dry fuels.
Critical highlights were nudged northward to cover this fire weather
threat. Otherwise, previous forecast remains on track.
..Williams.. 06/16/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025/
...Synopsis...
Within the base of a midlevel trough advancing eastward from the
Great Basin into the central Rockies, moderate deep-layer westerly
flow will overspread the Southwest during the afternoon. In response
to this feature, a lee cyclone will deepen over the central High
Plains.
...Western NM and Eastern AZ...
Deep boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft, coupled
with a tightening pressure gradient peripheral to the deepening lee
cyclone, will contribute to an expansive area of single-digit RH and
20 mph sustained westerly surface winds across western NM and
eastern AZ. These dry/windy conditions atop increasingly dry fuels
will lead to critical fire-weather conditions during the afternoon.
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 152201
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0501 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025
Valid 171200Z - 231200Z
...Day 3-4/Tuesday-Wednesday...
An eastward propagating upper-level short wave trough and associated
increased mid-level flow will overspread the Southwest on Day
3/Tuesday. Critical probabilities were maintained as prolonged burn
periods with poor to moderate RH recoveries and single digit daytime
RH values combine with southwest winds of 15-25 mph across eastern
Arizona and western New Mexico. A 40 percent probability area was
added for the Columbia Basin for Day 4/Tuesday as another Pacific
Northwest short wave trough moves into the region supporting
downslope/leeward drying and breezy west winds across the area amid
dry fuels.
...Day 5-8/Thursday-Sunday...
A deepening upper-level trough begins to impact the western U.S. on
Day 5/Thursday, promoting a multi-day fire weather threat across the
Great Basin with fire weather concerns shifting east into the
Southwest and Intermountain West into the weekend. Fuels will
continue to dry across the region under an above normal temperature
regime with dry, breezy southwest winds setting the stage for
increased fire spread potential. Dry and breezy conditions could
also impact ongoing active fires across the region.
..Williams.. 06/15/2025