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   FNUS21 KWNS 171649

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1149 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025

   Valid 171700Z - 181200Z

   ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF NEW MEXICO INTO
   WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE
   SOUTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

   Latest model guidance consensus and surface observations suggest
   corridor of Extreme fire weather conditions should extend from
   southwestern and central New Mexico into far western portions of the
   Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles this afternoon. In addition, Critical
   highlights were extended slightly eastward into western Oklahoma and
   northwest Texas. An accelerating mid-level jet over the Southwest
   and deepening lee surface trough will support southwest winds of
   30-40 mph across southwestern New Mexico into the Oklahoma/Texas
   Panhandles. A dry, well-mixed boundary layer will reinforce
   widespread relative humidity of 10 percent or less across much of
   New Mexico and adjacent High Plains. This weather environment will
   allow for Critical to Extreme fire weather conditions supportive of
   rapid fire spread in dry fuels.

   ..Williams/Moore.. 04/17/2025

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1255 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025/

   ...Synopsis...
   A potent mid-level jet will overspread New Mexico during the
   afternoon today. A surface low will deepen near the Colorado/Kansas
   border. A broad region of high-end fire weather will be present
   across parts of the Southwest and the adjacent southern/central High
   Plains.

   ...New Mexico...
   The most significant fire weather concerns are expected from
   southwest into northeast New Mexico. Here, the mid-level jet will be
   quite favorably timed with peak heating. Sustained wind of 30-40 mph
   and gusts of 55-65 mph appear probable during the afternoon. RH of
   5-10% can be expected. With ERCs near or above the 90th percentile
   (with some around the 97th), significant fire spread can be expected
   with any ignitions.

   ...Southern High Plains...
   While some transitioning/greening fuels complicate the forecast, the
   still intense meteorological conditions will drive critical fire
   weather for parts of West Texas. Areas of the eastern Panhandle and
   South Plains (areas primarily east of the Caprock) will see
   similarly dry and windy conditions, but less receptive fuels (per
   TICC and other local fuel information) will keep fire weather
   elevated. RH of 5-15% with winds of 15-25 mph are expected. The
   highest wind speeds will be near the New Mexico border into the
   northwest Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles.

   ...Central High Plains...
   With the deepening surface low and some portion of the mid-level jet
   impacting the region, westerly downslope winds in Colorado and
   southwesterly winds in Kansas will promote elevated to critical fire
   weather. Strong winds (20-30 mph) are expected for much of the Front
   Range into southwest Kansas. RH will be similarly low as farther
   south/west -- values ranging from 5-15%. The fire weather threat
   will extend as far north as the cold front. A few locations could
   see elevated to briefly critical conditions prior to winds shifting
   to the north and RH quickly rising.