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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

   FNUS21 KWNS 221641

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1141 AM CDT Fri Sep 22 2023

   Valid 221700Z - 231200Z

   ...17z Update...
   No major changes will be assessed to the currently valid outlook.
   Dry and breezy downslope flow is probable along the I-25 Corridor
   and the eastern San Luis Valley of southeastern CO this afternoon.
   Probabilities were nudged slightly eastward across parts of the
   OK/TX Panhandles where dry and breezy conditions appear possible
   this afternoon. However, fuels across much of the area are only
   marginally receptive to fire spread given recent rainfall lending
   lower confidence in widespread fire-weather concerns. Please see the
   previous forecast for more information.

   ..Lyons.. 09/22/2023

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1249 AM CDT Fri Sep 22 2023/

   Areas of elevated fire weather conditions are probable this
   afternoon across a broad swath of the Four Corners region and into
   the Front Range of southern CO and northeast NM, though fuel status
   will be a limiting factor across much of this region. Early-morning
   low-level water vapor imagery depicts a plume of drier low to
   mid-level air from southern CA to northeast AZ on the southern
   periphery of a upper low over the northern Great Basin. 00Z
   soundings within this dry plume sampled average RH in the 850-700 mb
   layer around 20-30%. This dry air mass is expected to spread north
   across much of the Four Corners over the next 12-24 hours, and
   should mix to the surface amid deep diurnal heating/mixing. The
   combination of dry air advection, diurnal warming, and downslope
   warming/drying in the lee of terrain features will support
   widespread RH reductions into the low teens with 15-20 mph winds.
   Recent ensemble guidance shows reasonably good consensus for this
   scenario, but latest ERC analyses suggests that fuels across much of
   the region are not currently receptive. Local fuel reports from
   northeast NM into southeast CO suggest that fuels are regionally
   drier and may support a fire weather concern. Consequently,
   highlights are maintained across this region where the fire weather
   threat is higher.

U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

   FNUS22 KWNS 221941

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0241 PM CDT Fri Sep 22 2023

   Valid 231200Z - 241200Z


   ...20z Update...
   No changes will be made to the current outlook. Overall fire-weather
   concerns are expected to remain below Elevated criteria and
   localized across the lee of the Rockies and northern Great Basin.
   See the previous discussions for more information.

   ..Lyons.. 09/22/2023

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0130 AM CDT Fri Sep 22 2023/

   Fire weather concerns should remain fairly localized for Saturday
   along the High Plains. A surface low and an attendant surface trough
   are forecast to deepen as they migrate east across the Plains on
   Saturday. This will establish a zonal flow regime across much of the
   Rockies and High Plains by late morning. Downslope warming/drying
   along the CO Front Range and in the lee of the Sangre de Cristo and
   Sandia/Manzano Mountains, augmented by diurnal heating, should
   promote areas of 15-25% RH as winds increase to 15-20 mph (with
   locally drier/windier in terrain-favored locations). Somewhat meager
   mid to upper-level winds should confine the strongest surface winds
   close to terrain features - with the exception of southeast WY into
   adjacent portions of NE/northeast CO where surface gradient winds
   will be stronger. This, combined with somewhat marginal fuel status
   outside of far northeast NM and southern CO, will limit the coverage
   of elevated conditions and the overall fire weather threat.

U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

   FNUS28 KWNS 222102

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0402 PM CDT Fri Sep 22 2023

   Valid 241200Z - 301200Z

   Shortwave ridging over the western US will quickly breakdown ahead
   of a Pacific trough moving onshore late this weekend into early next
   week. As the upper ridge breaks down and strong flow aloft moves
   overhead, localized dry and breezy conditions are possible across
   parts of the Northwest, Great Basin, and Rockies. By mid week next
   week, rain chances are forecast to increase limiting fire-weather
   concerns over much of the Northwest. Some fire concerns may linger
   over the Great Basin and Rockies, but confidence is low.

   ...Northern Great Basin and Rockies...
   Early next week, enhanced mid-level flow associated with the Pacific
   trough will begin to overspread much of the western CONUS including
   the Great Basin and northern Rockies. While temperatures and
   humidity are not expected to be overly warm/dry, the increase in
   southwesterly flow aloft may support localized pockets of dry and
   breezy conditions (winds 15-20 mph and RH below 25%) as early as
   D3/Sunday, continuing  trough midweek. Fuels across much of the
   region have not been overly favorable for fire spread in recent
   weeks from precipitation and cooler temperatures. Further
   uncertainty exists regarding the chance for additional precipitation
   with the trough as it continues to move eastward through the week.
   However, the introduction of gusty winds may allow for some drying
   of fine fuels enough to support a low chance for fire-weather
   conditions through the forecast period. Ensemble and deterministic
   guidance suggest the most likely corridors for low-end fire-weather
   conditions will exist across portions of northern CA/NV into
   southern ID, and across parts of the Rockies in northern CO/southern
   WY, and western MT. However, with the uncertainties regarding fuel
   availability and precipitation chances, confidence in sustained
   critical fire-weather conditions is low.

   Towards the end of the extended forecast period, model guidance
   diverges on the overall amplification of the upper-level flow
   pattern and the subsequent risk for critical fire-weather
   conditions. Some indications for a return to strong ridging may
   favor a slow increase in fire-weather concerns late in the month.
   Conversely, a cut-off low or persistent troughing, as indicated by
   some ensemble guidance, may also allow for cooler and wetter
   conditions across the western US into October.

   ..Lyons.. 09/22/2023

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