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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

   FNUS21 KWNS 261604

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1104 AM CDT Thu May 26 2022

   Valid 261700Z - 271200Z

   Only minor modifications were made to the ongoing forecast based on
   current guidance. Widely scattered virga showers with gusty outflow
   winds are possible in central/northern Nevada. Thermodynamic
   profiles remain marginally supportive of a few lightning flashes
   across the region. With most area fuels still only marginally dry,
   particularly the larger fuels, ignition efficiency from any
   lightning activity is expected to be low.

   ..Wendt.. 05/26/2022

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0107 AM CDT Thu May 26 2022/

   Elevated fire weather concerns remain likely this afternoon across
   northwestern to southern Nevada. Early-morning water vapor imagery
   reveals an upper-level wave approaching the Pacific Northwest.
   Surface pressure falls across the northern Great Basin will induce
   south to southwesterly winds off the Sierra Nevada and lower CO
   River Valley. Sustained winds between 15 to 20 mph are expected by
   early afternoon based on ensemble guidance. However, deep
   boundary-layer mixing will support frequent wind gusts between 25-35
   mph, especially across central to southern NV where nearly all
   solutions show the strongest low-level mass response. Downslope
   effects, combined with antecedent dry conditions and diurnal
   warming, will support RH reductions into the 10-15% range across
   much of the region. Consequently, elevated (to briefly critical)
   fire weather conditions appear likely, including across far western
   NV where several lightning strikes were noted Wednesday afternoon. 

   ...Dry Thunderstorms... 
   The approaching upper low will also support the potential for
   isolated to scattered thunderstorms by late afternoon across the
   Pacific Northwest and parts of the northern Great Basin. Observed 00
   UTC soundings show an increase in column precipitable water over the
   region, but values remain near 0.3 to 0.5 inches. Continued
   moistening is expected, but PWATs will likely remain near 0.5 to
   0.75 across NV and will support a dry-lightning threat. While the
   probability for thunderstorms is highest across portions of OR, WA,
   and ID, a few dry thunderstorms are possible across central to
   northern NV. An isolated dry-thunderstorm risk area is introduced
   where confidence in thunderstorms overlapping with critically dry
   fuels is highest.

U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

   FNUS22 KWNS 260649

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0149 AM CDT Thu May 26 2022

   Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

   Increasing west to southwest winds across parts of the southern
   Great Basin, Southwest, and Four Corners will lead to a broad swath
   of fire weather concerns Friday afternoon. The upper-level wave
   currently approaching the Pacific Northwest is forecast to translate
   into the northern Rockies by late Friday. Falling heights aloft will
   support modest surface pressure falls over the inter-mountain West,
   resulting in a broad low-level mass response from the southern Great
   Basin into the Four Corners and Southwest. Ensemble guidance and
   deterministic solutions generally suggest that 15-20 mph winds will
   be common across this region. Drier/windier solutions indicate that
   areas of 20-25 mph winds are possible, but considerable spread in
   deterministic solutions introduces uncertainty regarding the exact
   placement and coverage of the strongest winds. Strong mid and
   upper-level winds will largely be displaced to the north of the
   region, which further limits confidence on where the windiest
   corridors will be established within the risk area. 

   Nonetheless, dry conditions will prevail with 10-15% RH values
   expected by late afternoon. Widespread elevated conditions are
   likely, and a few corridors of critical conditions are possible.
   Similar wind/RH conditions are possible across much of the southern
   High Plains as well, but widespread rainfall over the past few days
   has mitigated fuel status for the time being. Fuel trends will be
   monitored for a possible expansion, but Friday's warm/dry conditions
   will likely begin the drying process for most locations as
   temperatures rebound into the 90s.

   ..Moore.. 05/26/2022

U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

   FNUS28 KWNS 252030

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0330 PM CDT Wed May 25 2022

   Valid 271200Z - 021200Z

   Upper-level ridging in the West will continue to shift eastward late
   this week into the weekend. The next West Coast trough will move
   ashore Saturday/Sunday. This large-scale trough will remain over the
   Great Basin until some time mid/late next week. This pattern will
   favor High Plains lee troughing/cyclogenesis each day until the
   upper trough lifts northeast and loses amplitude. Fire weather
   concerns will remain focused from the Great Basin into the Southwest
   and possibly the central/southern High Plains.

   ...Great Basin...
   As mid-level flow increases across the region on Friday, potential
   for critical fire weather will increase as a surface trough deepens
   in the central Basin. Given the late arrival of the stronger
   mid-level winds and weak surface response, potential for critical
   fire weather remains at 40%. Stronger winds are possible into the
   eastern Basin by Saturday. At present, fuels may only be marginally
   dry and higher critical probabilities will be withheld.

   Fire weather concerns will increase across the region beginning
   Friday. A broad area of potentially critical fire weather is
   forecast for much of Arizona/New Mexico. The stronger mid-level
   winds will be displaced to the northwest and only weak lee troughing
   will exist to the east. Some stronger winds may occur north of the
   Mogollon Rim, but sparse fuels will limit the threat.

   Greater potential for critical fire weather will exist on Saturday
   into Monday. Mid-level winds will continue to increase each day with
   deepening surface cyclones expected in the central High Plains.
   Strong surface winds are expected across the region along with
   continued dry conditions. Some mid/high-level clouds are possible,
   but this is not expected to limit concerns for most areas.

   ...Central/Southern High Plains...
   Given recent precipitation, it is not entirely clear how much of a
   fire weather risk will develop over the weekend into early next
   week. Fuel conditions will continue to be monitored over the next
   few days as meteorological conditions would support higher
   probabilities during parts of the Friday through next Monday time

   ...Sacramento Valley...
   The upper-level pattern within guidance would continue to support
   some increase in fire weather concerns on Monday. As before, the
   level of risk will depend on precipitation that occurs with the
   trough moving in during this coming weekend. Uncertainty is too high
   for highlights at this time.

   ..Wendt.. 05/25/2022

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