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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

   FNUS21 KWNS 250606

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0106 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024

   Valid 251200Z - 261200Z


   Critical to extremely critical fire weather conditions are expected
   this afternoon across a broad swath of the southern High Plains.
   Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts an upper wave moving into
   the lower CO River Valley. This feature, and its associated
   mid-level jet max, are forecast to overspread the southern High
   Plains by peak heating, resulting in strong winds over a region with
   antecedent hot/dry conditions. 

   As of 05 UTC, surface observations across southern NM and far west
   TX were sampling RH values in the single digits. Any nocturnal RH
   recovery will be rapidly offset by strong diurnal warming through
   early afternoon as temperatures climb into the 90s. 00 UTC ABQ and
   EPZ soundings sampled dry conditions from the surface through 500
   mb, suggesting that deep boundary-layer mixing is likely again this

   A lee cyclone will steadily deepen over the next 12-24 hours across
   eastern CO, resulting in strengthening west/southwesterly winds
   across the southern High Plains. Recent ensemble guidance shows high
   probability of sustained 20-25 mph winds across a broad swath of NM
   into adjacent portions of CO, TX, KS, and OK with the potential for
   gusts upwards of 30-40 mph. Multiple days of single-digit RH values
   has dried most fine fuels with ERC values above the 90th percentile
   for parts of West TX and southern NM. Consequently, widespread
   Critical conditions are expected, beginning as early as 17 UTC
   across southern NM and becoming widespread by 19 UTC. 

   Extremely critical conditions are probable for portions of
   south-central NM into far southwest TX. Enhanced downslope winds in
   the lee of the Sacramento and Guadalupe Mountains should support
   sustained winds near 30 mph. The passage of the mid-level jet max
   over this region at peak heating (when mixing should be deepest)
   should result in wind gusts between 40-55 mph. While these
   conditions are expected to be somewhat confined spatially, both
   deterministic and ensemble guidance show reasonably good agreement
   in this scenario.

   ..Moore.. 05/25/2024

U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

   FNUS22 KWNS 250656

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0156 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024

   Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

   Elevated fire weather conditions appear probable across parts of the
   southern High Plains Sunday afternoon. Residual west/northwesterly
   mid-level flow in the wake of a departing synoptic low will persist
   across the southern Rockies through Sunday evening. This will
   promote weak lee troughing across southern TX while surface high
   pressure builds across the Intermountain West. Consequently,
   northwesterly pressure gradient winds are forecast to increase to
   around 15 mph across much of eastern and southern NM into adjacent
   portions of western TX. Very dry conditions will persist through the
   weekend with widespread RH minimums in the single digits to low
   teens Sunday afternoon. Widespread elevated fire weather conditions
   appear probable with localized areas of critical conditions
   possible. Latest ensemble and deterministic solutions hint that
   critical conditions may be confined to the lee of terrain features
   where winds may reach 20-25 mph. However, weakening mid-level winds
   through the day should limit the potential for more widespread
   critical conditions. Regardless, most fine fuels are already
   receptive based on recent fuel analyses, and very dry and windy
   conditions on Saturday will promote additional fuel drying for
   Sunday that will support the fire weather threat.

   ..Moore.. 05/25/2024

U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

   FNUS28 KWNS 242206

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0506 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

   Valid 261200Z - 011200Z

   Moderate westerly flow aloft and a weak lee cyclone over the
   central/southern High Plains will bring Elevated to locally Critical
   fire-weather conditions on D3/Sunday to portions of New Mexico,
   western Texas, and southern Arizona. Latest guidance shows little
   confidence in sustained critical wind speeds, supporting maintaining
   40 percent probabilities. Given potential for relative humidity in
   the single digits to teens and fuels in the 90th percentile, this
   potential will be closely monitored for inclusion of higher risk
   areas should trends change.

   A large-scale ridge will build over the West beyond D3/Sunday,
   generally limiting fire-weather concerns over the Desert Southwest
   and High Plains where fuels are the driest for the remainder of the
   extended forecast period.

   ..Thornton.. 05/24/2024

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