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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

   FNUS21 KWNS 071621

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1121 AM CDT Fri Oct 07 2022

   Valid 071700Z - 081200Z


   The forecast remains on track, and no changes were made with this
   update. For details, see the previous discussion below.

   ..Weinman.. 10/07/2022

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Fri Oct 07 2022/

   Fuels are moist across much of the western CONUS except for some
   spotty drier fuels in the northern Sierra into southeast Oregon.
   However, winds will be light across this region. 

   A larger region of critically dry fuels is present across much of
   the central and southern Plains into portions of the Gulf Coast.
   Winds will also be mostly light across this region and therefore, no
   fire weather concerns are anticipated.

U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

   FNUS22 KWNS 071731

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1231 PM CDT Fri Oct 07 2022

   Valid 081200Z - 091200Z


   In addition to the fire-weather concerns described below, locally
   elevated conditions are possible across parts of the Southeast
   during peak heating. Despite generally light sustained northerly
   surface winds across the region (near 10 mph), 25-35 percent minimum
   RH and 15 mph gusts could still support locally elevated conditions
   given increasingly dry fuels. However, the lack of a stronger
   sustained surface wind field precludes Elevated highlights at this

   ..Weinman.. 10/07/2022

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Fri Oct 07 2022/

   Some breezy conditions are anticipated across the Great Lakes on
   Saturday. However, fuels are mostly moist in this region and
   relative humidity should remain above 35-40 percent across most of
   the area. 

   Elsewhere winds are mostly light where fuels are critically dry. 

   Therefore, fire weather concerns should remain minimal on Saturday.

U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

   FNUS28 KWNS 072202

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0502 PM CDT Fri Oct 07 2022

   Valid 091200Z - 151200Z

   Increasing fire-weather concerns can be expected across parts of the
   Plains, north-central Rockies, and perhaps the Middle MS Valley
   during the extended forecast period -- especially for Days
   5-8/Tuesday-Friday. However, details regarding the fire-weather
   threat remain unclear owing to substantial differences in the
   medium-range model guidance -- precluding 70 percent Critical
   probabilities for now. 

   ...Day 4/Monday...
   Broad midlevel troughing will develop over the western two-thirds of
   the CONUS, favoring surface lee troughing and dry/breezy southerly
   return flow over the central and southern Plains. This could lead to
   elevated conditions, though confidence in the development of
   critical conditions is too low to introduce probabilities. 

   ...Days 5-8/Tuesday-Friday...
   A strong/amplified large-scale trough will track eastward from the
   north-central Rockies into the MS Valley, while an attendant cold
   front sweeps eastward across the central CONUS. 

   On Day 5/Tuesday, strong southerly surface winds will develop across
   the Plains in response to the strengthening westerly flow aloft.
   While widespread 20+ mph sustained surface winds are expected across
   the Plains and parts of the central Rockies, modest low-level
   moisture return could temper RH reductions where the strongest
   surface winds are expected. The one exception may be over parts of
   WY into NE (where stronger downslope warming/drying is possible).
   Therefore, 40 percent Critical probabilities have been introduced
   for these areas.  

   As the large-scale trough continues tracking eastward on Day
   6/Wednesday, strong northwesterly surface winds will overspread the
   northern/central Plains behind the cold front. At the same time,
   breezy southerly winds are also possible over the MS Valley ahead of
   the front. While enhanced fire-weather conditions are possible over
   both of these regions, large model differences regarding minimum RH
   cast uncertainty on the overall fire-weather risk. For Days
   7-8/Thursday-Friday, a swath of strong post-frontal surface winds
   will persist across the Plains into the MS Valley, though cool
   surface temperatures may limit RH reductions where the strongest
   surface winds develop.

   ..Weinman.. 10/07/2022

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