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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 220641
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1241 AM CST Mon Dec 22 2025
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
...Synopsis...
Upper ridging will continue to build over the CONUS through today,
with lee troughing poised to increase across the Plains states. Some
dry downslope flow is expected across portions of the southern High
Plains during the afternoon hours. From the immediate lee of the
Rockies across Colorado, to eastern New Mexico and the Texas
Panhandle, multiple hours of overlapping 15-20 percent RH and 15+
mph sustained westerly surface winds are likely. Elevated highlights
have been maintained given dry fuels.
..Squitieri.. 12/22/2025
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 220646
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1246 AM CST Mon Dec 22 2025
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
Upper ridging will persist across the central and eastern U.S. as a
mid-level trough impinges on the West Coast tomorrow (Tuesday).
Surface lee troughing will continue across the central U.S., with
gradual moisture return from the Gulf expected. A dry low-level
airmass will continue to linger along the central and southern High
Plains. However, surface wind fields over the western portions of
the Plains will be weaker compared to Day 1, with no fire weather
highlights introduced for this outlook.
..Squitieri.. 12/22/2025
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 212156
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0356 PM CST Sun Dec 21 2025
Valid 231200Z - 291200Z
...Synopsis...
A mid/upper level ridge is expected to amplify over the central U.S.
through midweek supporting dry conditions and near record warm
temperatures across the Plains. A deepening trough across the
northeast Pacific should bring increasing Pacific moisture,
including widespread rain and mountain snow into the much of the
western U.S. through the week. Longer term model guidance indicates
a westward shift of the mid-level ridge while troughing develops
across the Northeast. This could invite a cold air intrusion into
much of the eastern U.S. by early next week but still limits
rainfall potential across the Plains.
...Day 3-5/Tuesday-Thursday - Southern High Plains...
The Southern High Plains will remain the focus for fire weather
concerns through midweek with increasingly dry fuels in place. A
deepening lee trough across the southern High Plains will maintain
dry and breezy conditions across portions of northeast NM, TX/OK
Panhandles, southeast CO and southwest KS on Day 4/Wednesday. 40
percent critical probabilities were maintained for this region.
Enhanced southwest winds are also expected farther east into
northern TX and central OK on Wednesday, but deeper Gulf boundary
layer moisture should limit a more significant fire weather threat.
Similarly breezy conditions should exist on Day 5/Thursday, but
increasing Pacific moisture/cloud cover could considerably limit RH
reductions across the TX/OK Panhandles and adjacent high plains.
...Day 6-8/Friday-Sunday...
Relatively warm and dry conditions will persist across much of the
central and southern Plains through the weekend. A potential strong
cold front sweeps through the Plains and eastern CONUS as
mid/upper-level troughing evolves across Ontario/Quebec Canadian
provinces and northeastern U.S. However, forecast uncertainty
remains high in terms of timing of the front, particularly across
the Southern Plains where receptive fuels will likely exist. This
precludes introduction of critical probabilities at this time.
..Williams.. 12/21/2025
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