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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

   FNUS21 KWNS 031549

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0949 AM CST Wed Mar 03 2021

   Valid 031700Z - 041200Z

   The ongoing forecast is on track and no changes are needed.  Surface
   flow is expected to increase dramatically across Arizona today as a
   storm system approaches California.  Initially, a dry airmass will
   reside across the state, though gradual moistening will occur from
   southwest to northeast, resulting in rising RH values.  The current
   elevated delineation highlights areas where elevated to locally
   critical fire weather will exist for at least a few hours today.

   See the previous discussion below for more information.

   ..Cook.. 03/03/2021

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0104 AM CST Wed Mar 03 2021/

   A closed upper low will move into southern California during the day
   today, overspreading moderate to strong mid-level flow across the
   Southwest and into the southern Great Basin. At the surface, an area
   of low pressure will strengthen as it moves into southern Nevada by
   evening. The combination of the strengthening pressure gradient and
   deep mixing transporting stronger flow from aloft toward the surface
   will bring strengthening surface flow. Winds are expected to be
   around 25 mph across much of southern Arizona. Dry surface
   conditions will be in place with RH of 8 to 15 percent, but moisture
   advection from the southwest will lead to increasing humidity,
   especially across southwest Arizona. Current elevated area
   highlights where humidity will be minimally impacted by increasing
   moisture and where duration of the stronger winds will be long
   enough for some large-fire concerns.



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