ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 031549
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0949 AM CST Wed Mar 03 2021
Valid 031700Z - 041200Z
The ongoing forecast is on track and no changes are needed. Surface
flow is expected to increase dramatically across Arizona today as a
storm system approaches California. Initially, a dry airmass will
reside across the state, though gradual moistening will occur from
southwest to northeast, resulting in rising RH values. The current
elevated delineation highlights areas where elevated to locally
critical fire weather will exist for at least a few hours today.
See the previous discussion below for more information.
..Cook.. 03/03/2021
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0104 AM CST Wed Mar 03 2021/
...Synopsis...
A closed upper low will move into southern California during the day
today, overspreading moderate to strong mid-level flow across the
Southwest and into the southern Great Basin. At the surface, an area
of low pressure will strengthen as it moves into southern Nevada by
evening. The combination of the strengthening pressure gradient and
deep mixing transporting stronger flow from aloft toward the surface
will bring strengthening surface flow. Winds are expected to be
around 25 mph across much of southern Arizona. Dry surface
conditions will be in place with RH of 8 to 15 percent, but moisture
advection from the southwest will lead to increasing humidity,
especially across southwest Arizona. Current elevated area
highlights where humidity will be minimally impacted by increasing
moisture and where duration of the stronger winds will be long
enough for some large-fire concerns.
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