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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

   FNUS21 KWNS 060649

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0149 AM CDT Thu May 06 2021

   Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

   Across the CONUS, broad troughing will continue in the Northeast as
   the mid-level flow pattern gradually becomes more amplified. A ridge
   of high pressure over the Rockies will intensify, while a shortwave
   trough is forecast to move onshore across California. At the
   surface, a cold front will push east through the western Great Basin
   while high pressure becomes established over the central Plains. 

   ...Red River Valley/Northern Plains...
   A belt of strong mid-level flow is expected to develop over the
   region on the backside of the broad trough across the northeastern
   US. A weak front will move south out of Canada through the day,
   bringing dry and breezy conditions to the northern Plains and upper
   Midwest. North winds of 10-20 mph and surface humidity of 20-30%
   will support elevated fire weather conditions. 

   ...Great Basin and Southwest...
   Ahead of the shortwave trough and cold front across the western
   Great Basin, gusty southerly winds are expected to increase early in
   the day. Warm temperatures in the 70s to 80s F will support deep
   mixing and low surface humidity of 10-15%. Locally elevated fire
   weather conditions appear possible given the favorable
   meteorological overlap. However, the lack of robust fuels cast doubt
   on how widespread favorable fire weather conditions may become.

   Mid-level moisture ahead of the cold front will also support
   isolated showers/thunderstorms from the Great Basin southeastward
   into the portions of the Southwest. Dry surface conditions will
   limit any precipitation from storms that do develop during the day
   supporting low-end dry thunderstorm potential.

   ..Lyons.. 05/06/2021



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