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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

   FNUS21 KWNS 250732

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0132 AM CST Wed Nov 25 2020

   Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

   A mid-level trough will deepen across the Inter-mountain West as a
   trough aloft de-amplifies across the eastern CONUS. The eastward
   advance of the western upper trough will induce surface
   lee-troughing across the southern High Plains during the day and
   building surface High Pressure across the Pacific Northwest and
   western Great Basin by the end of the period. Dry and breezy
   conditions are expected to accompany the lee-troughing across the
   southern High Plains, with a surface pressure gradient becoming
   established across California, marking the beginning of a multi-day
   offshore flow event conducive to wildfire spread.

   ...Southern High Plains...
   The latest model guidance consensus depicts 15-20 mph sustained
   westerly surface winds and 15-25% RH by afternoon peak heating along
   the lee of the southern Rockies towards the Trans Pecos range.
   However, these conditions are expected to be relatively localized in
   most places given upper ridging and associated lack of upper
   support. Guidance consensus does depict a larger region of Elevated
   conditions across east-central New Mexico, where confidence is high
   enough to maintain an Elevated highlight.

   ...Portions of southern California...
   After 06Z Thursday, the aforementioned pressure gradient is expected
   to intensify across portions of southern California, encouraging at
   least widespread 15-25 mph sustained offshore flow. However, these
   stronger winds are expected to arrive in advance of the drier
   airmass, with surface RH values in the 25-35% range expected before
   12Z (end of the period). Given the delay of the arrival of drier
   air, an Elevated area has been withheld this outlook. Shortly after
   12Z, drier air and even stronger winds are expected to promote
   considerable wildfire spread potential. Please see the latest Day 2
   Fire Weather Outlook for more information regarding Thursday's
   wildfire-spread potential.

   ..Squitieri.. 11/25/2020



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