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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

   FNUS21 KWNS 251651

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1151 AM CDT Mon Oct 25 2021

   Valid 251700Z - 261200Z

   The previous forecast remains valid with only minor adjustments to
   the ongoing Elevated Area. Dry downslope flow and warm temperatures
   are expected with the development of a lee trough east of the Front
   Range this afternoon. Here, above average fuel dryness in addition
   to the previously mentioned meteorological conditions may support a
   few hours of elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions.
   Elsewhere, the previous forecast remains valid with no changes.
   Please see the prior outlook for additional information.

   ..Lyons.. 10/25/2021

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0136 AM CDT Mon Oct 25 2021/

   Surface lee-troughing will intensify across the High Plains as a
   well-defined mid-level trough impinges on the central CONUS today.
   Initially dry southerly flow will dominate the southern into central
   High Plains. Latest guidance consensus depicts 15 mph sustained
   southerly winds overlapping with 15-20% RH across far southeast
   Colorado into northeast New Mexico and western portions of the
   Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles. With fine (grass-based) fuels anticipated
   to be at least modestly receptive to fire spread, Elevated
   highlights have been maintained. Locally Critical conditions may
   also briefly occur over terrain-favoring areas in northeast New
   Mexico by afternoon peak heating.

U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

   FNUS22 KWNS 251940

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0240 PM CDT Mon Oct 25 2021

   Valid 261200Z - 271200Z


   Latest Hi-res ensemble guidance has come into better agreement on
   stronger winds and low RH developing behind a strong lee
   trough/dryline across portions of the northern TX Panhandle
   Day2/Tue. Here, forecast soundings suggest RH of 10-12% with winds
   gusts of 25-35 mph will likely develop through the afternoon.
   Short-hour fuels remain supportive for fire growth/spread,
   suggesting widespread elevated and critical fire weather conditions
   are possible.

   Onto the Stacked Plains and the southern TX Panhandle, somewhat
   higher RH suggests lower confidence in widespread critical
   conditions. However, dry fuels and warm/windy conditions will likely
   support elevated fire weather potential through the afternoon. The
   rest of the outlook remains valid with minor adjustments for the
   latest guidance. See the previous discussion for more information.

   ..Lyons/Weinman.. 10/25/2021

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Mon Oct 25 2021/

   A surface low will rapidly deepen across the central High Plains as
   a highly amplified mid-level trough ejects into the central U.S.
   tomorrow/Tuesday. A narrow but focused corridor of very dry and
   windy conditions are expected behind a sharpening dryline across the
   central and southern High Plains, where multiple preceding days of
   dry conditions should have sufficiently cured fine fuels to support
   grass-fire spread. 15-25 mph sustained southerly flow amid 15-20% RH
   behind the dryline warranted the introduction of Elevated highlights
   across much of the central into southern High Plains. In addition,
   Critical highlights were introduced to parts of southeast Colorado,
   southwest Kansas, and the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles, where the
   latest guidance consensus depicts widespread sustained 20-25 mph
   southerly winds. However, multiple guidance members suggest much of
   west Texas to northeast Colorado/northwest Kansas may also
   experience overlapping Critical winds/RH, and the current Critical
   highlights may need to be expanded farther north and south pending
   continued favorable trends and consistency among guidance members.

U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

   FNUS28 KWNS 252201

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0501 PM CDT Mon Oct 25 2021

   Valid 271200Z - 021200Z

   At the start of the extended forecast period, a strong trough will
   move east out of the Rockies and onto the southern Plains, as strong
   mid-level northerly winds develop behind it. High pressure will
   develop off the West Coast as zonal flow continues across much of
   the CONUS. At the surface, a cold front will move with the upper
   trough, sweeping through the Plains, bringing a cooler and drier
   airmass into the weekend. Dry post frontal conditions along with
   drier than average fuels will support elevated to critical fire
   weather potential across portions of the southern Plains and far
   south Texas.  

   ...Southern High Plains...
   In the wake of a strong cold front moving through the southern
   Plains late Day2/Tuesday, strong northwesterly low-level winds are
   forecast to develop across portions of west Texas early
   Day3/Wednesday. Enhanced by mixing from a 50-60 kt mid-level jet
   along the backside of the departing trough, model sounding show
   boundary-layer max wind gusts of 30-40 mph across portions of the
   Texas Panhandle and Big Bend regions. The dry continental
   trajectories aided by downslope warming will also favor low diurnal
   RH values of 10-20%. With expected meteorological conditions and
   fuels supportive of fire spread, widespread elevated to critical
   fire weather conditions appear likely across portions of southwest 
   Texas. A 70% probability of critical area was added to southwestern
   Texas and the big Bend region for expected critical fire weather

   Strong surface winds will linger into Day4/Thursday as surface high
   pressure build across the Rockies and central Plains. Mid-level flow
   will remain strong supporting deep mixing despite cooler surface
   temperatures. Sustained surface winds of 20-25 mph from the
   northwest again appear likely. Increasing low-level cold advection
   may limit the influence of diurnal heating on minimum surface RH
   during the afternoon. However, a few hours of RH below 20% do still
   appear plausible despite lower confidence. Given the potential for
   strong winds and relatively dry fuels, elevated to locally critical
   fire weather conditions will remain possible. Winds should decrease
   across the southern Plains Day5/Friday as the main trough and
   mid-level jet are replaced by a ridge of high pressure over the
   Southwest. However, lingering strong surface winds of 15-20 mph and
   surface RH below 20% may support localized elevated fire weather
   conditions where fuels remain driest. 

   ...Central Plains...
   Dry downslope flow conditions are forecast to develop early
   Day3/Wednesday as the strong upper trough and associated cold front
   move to the south and east. High pressure over the Great Basin and
   interior Rockies will support increasingly strong west/northwesterly
   flow along with dry surface conditions. The greatest overlap of
   surface RH below 20% and winds greater than 20 mph will likely be
   Day3/Wednesday, ahead of a surge of cooler air behind the front.
   While fuels remain somewhat receptive to fire spread, increasing
   cold advection suggests higher humidity recoveries overnight may
   begin to limit fire weather potential late Day3/Wednesday into
   Day4/Thursday. While confidence is lower, 40% probability of
   critical areas will be maintained across portions of western Kansas
   and eastern Colorado for Day3/4 Wednesday/Thursday. The fire weather
   threat should end heading into the weekend, as increasing high
   pressure limits the potential for dry/windy surface conditions
   across the central Plains.

   ..Lyons.. 10/25/2021

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