ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 110544

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1244 AM CDT Fri Oct 11 2024

   Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

   ...Synopsis...
   A mid-level trough progressing across the Pacific Northwest will
   result in modest mid-level westerly flow across the Great Basin,
   while east of the Rockies, the flow is predominantly northwesterly
   with a stronger jet core moving from Canada into the northern Great
   Plains. These mid-level features are responsible for two separate
   Elevated highlights on Saturday: one across much of western Utah
   into far eastern Nevada and northern Arizona, and the other
   stretching from far southern North Dakota/Western Montana into far
   northwestern Kansas.

   ...Great Basin...
   Daytime heating and boundary-layer mixing will result in relative
   humidity values of 10-15% and surface wind speeds of 15-20 MPH.
   While the threat for significant wildfire spread is low, these
   conditions overlap with modestly receptive fuels, and dry/windy
   conditions the preceding day that will contribute to additional
   curing of fuels. 

   ...Northern and Central Great Plains...
   Post-frontal dry/breezy conditions are expected across the northern
   and central Great Plains, with the strongest winds (15-20 MPH)
   expected further north into South Dakota closer to the mid-level jet
   core. While the magnitude of surface winds further south remains
   somewhat uncertain, much of the central and northern Great Plains
   fuels have ERC values exceeding the annual 98th percentile. Given
   the receptiveness of fuels to wildfire spread, Elevated highlights
   were extended southward into Nebraska and northern Kansas where
   winds could reach 15 MPH.

   ..Halbert.. 10/11/2024

      

   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 102058

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0358 PM CDT Thu Oct 10 2024

   Valid 121200Z - 181200Z

   Mid-level ridging over the western and central US is forecast to
   slowly breakdown heading into the weekend as a series of West Coast
   troughs and increasingly strong flow aloft develop. Strong high
   pressure will shift eastward and weaken as troughing develops over
   the eastern third of the US. A cold front should move through the
   Rockies and northern Plains early this weekend ahead of a second,
   stronger, front moving out of southern Canada and across the central
   US early next week. Dry and breezy conditions, supporting a low-end
   risk for fire-weather conditions, are possible across the Plains,
   Midwest and Great Basin through this weekend and into next week.
   More widespread fire-weather concerns could develop midweek next
   week. 

   ...Plains and Midwest...
   As the ridge aloft weakens, stronger mid-level flow will gradually
   move southward, first across the norther Plains and Upper Midwest,
   before developing over much of the central US. Dry and breezy
   conditions are possible behind and ahead of the aforementioned cold
   front through D3/D4 Sat/Sun, though the exact coverage and duration
   remains unclear. Still, the lack of recent rainfall and stronger
   winds suggests some fire-weather risk could evolve. Gusty southerly
   winds and very warm temperature are also possible over parts of the
   southern High Plains supporting some risk for locally elevated
   fire-weather potential given receptive fuels.

   Fire-weather concerns appear likely to increase early to midweek
   next week behind the second cold front as a strong area of high
   pressure develops over the eastern US. Breezy northerly winds are
   possible through early next week ahead of a strong area of low
   pressure expected to develop over the southern Plains. Elevated to
   critical fire-weather conditions are possible across the Plains and
   central US, given the overlap with very dry fuels and little recent
   rainfall. However, model guidance varies substantially on the timing
   and intensity of conditions.

   ...Great Basin...
   Breezy winds and low RH are possible over portions of the eastern
   Great Basin this weekend. Stronger flow aloft associated with
   western US troughing and the cold frontal passage could support
   another period of dry and windy conditions through early next week.
   Forecast certainty of widespread dry and breezy conditions is low,
   but Elevated highlights could be needed in future outlooks should
   confidence increase.

   ..Lyons.. 10/10/2024