U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 221615
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1015 AM CST Sun Dec 22 2024
Valid 221700Z - 231200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Update...
No changes are required for today's update. Increasing westerly
surface winds are expected across the High Plains of NM, which could
result in ~1 hour of localized elevated fire weather conditions
there later this afternoon as RH falls into the low teens. Due to
the limited duration of these conditions, however, an Elevated area
is not warranted.
..Barnes.. 12/22/2024
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0141 AM CST Sun Dec 22 2024/
...Synopsis...
A shortwave trough and accompanying jet streak will cross the
northern Rockies, while a related lee cyclone/trough briefly deepens
over the central and southern Plains. As a result, locally
dry/breezy conditions are possible over portions of the southern
High Plains, though fire-weather concerns will be low.
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 221909
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0109 PM CST Sun Dec 22 2024
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Update...
No modifications to the forecast are required for Day 2/Monday.
Please see the previous discussion below for additional details.
..Barnes.. 12/22/2024
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0142 AM CST Sun Dec 22 2024/
...Synopsis...
A weak shortwave trough will overspread the southern Rockies,
promoting weak lee cyclogenesis and locally dry/breezy conditions
over the TX Trans-Pecos region. However, these conditions will be
too marginal for any fire-weather concerns.
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 222224
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0424 PM CST Sun Dec 22 2024
Valid 241200Z - 301200Z
The synoptic pattern in the extended will consist of at least a
couple of shortwave troughs traversing the southern and central
CONUS. One such wave entering the Four Corners region Day
4/Wednesday will encourage lee surface cyclogenesis across
southeastern CO, and subsequently increasing west to southwesterly
surface flow over southern NM. However, both wind speeds and RH
should remain well below and above (respectively) critical
thresholds limiting the overall fire weather threat. Further east,
surface high pressure will continue to support cool/moist conditions
in conjunction with light surface winds. As this wave moves into the
Southern Plains Day 5/Thursday, some increasing downslope flow on
its backside will then develop across portions of West TX.
Another shortwave trough will quickly follow the aforementioned wave
Day 6/Friday, moving over the southern Rockies and eventually the
Southern Plains. An associated surface cyclone is expected to deepen
near the High Plains of TX as this occurs. Downslope westerlies at
the surface will accompany this low from central to southern NM,
into west TX. Although critical probabilities appear non-zero at
this time across West TX, considering breezy surface wind speeds, RH
and projected fuel receptiveness are not likely to promote a
significant fire weather threat at this time.
..Barnes.. 12/22/2024
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