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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 161619
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1019 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025
Valid 161700Z - 171200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF VIRGINIA...
Today's fire weather outlook remains largely on-track with only
minor modifications needed based on the latest high-resolution
ensemble guidance. The primary changes with this outlook update were
to expand the Elevated fire weather area farther south into portions
of South Carolina/Georgia and northeastward into portions of
Maryland/Delaware/New Jersey. Locally critical fire weather
conditions appear probable across much of the Elevated fire weather
area as near-critical dry/breezy northwesterly post-frontal surface
winds overlap critically receptive fuels owing to ongoing drought
conditions (with annual/seasonal ERC percentiles near records).
Please see the previous discussion below for more information on
today's fire weather forecast including the potential for locally
Elevated fire weather conditions across the Midwest.
..Elliott.. 11/16/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0145 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025/
...Synopsis...
Critical fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon for
portions of central Virginia with more widespread elevated fire
weather conditions likely for much of the Mid-Atlantic region as
northwesterly winds increase within a post-frontal regime.
Elsewhere, dry and breezy conditions are expected across the Midwest
as an unseasonably dry air mass moves into the region.
...Mid-Atlantic...
07 UTC surface observations show a cold front pushing east across
the upper OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic region. Although light
rain may occur prior to sunrise, most locations are not expected to
receive appreciable rainfall, which will maintain very dry fuel
conditions. Northwesterly winds are expected to increase behind the
frontal passage through mid-afternoon with most guidance suggesting
winds will peak between 15-20 mph across much of the region. Dry air
advecting into the region will promote RH reductions into the 20-35%
range from the Carolinas into the Chesapeake Bay area. A 700-500 mb
speed max is forecast to traverse the northern Blue Ridge Mountains
into central VA around peak heating. This will not only regionally
augment winds (which may gust upwards of 35-40 mph), but will
enhance downslope drying and promote a corridor of critical fire
weather conditions.
...Midwest...
Early-morning surface observations show dry air pushing
southeastward from the upper MS Valley into the Midwest region.
Dewpoints in the teens to low 20s are expected to spread into
eastern IL and IN through peak heating, which will promote RH
reductions into the 20-30% range, and possibly as low as 15% for
some locations. Building surface high pressure will largely limit
wind speeds and negate a more substantial fire weather threat.
However, light fire activity has been noted in recent days owing to
ongoing drought conditions, so localized fire concerns appear
possible where winds can increase to around 10-15 mph.
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 161931
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0131 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
Tomorrow's (Monday) fire weather outlook remains on-track with only
minor adjustments made with this outlook update based on the latest
high-resolution ensemble guidance.
Please see the previous discussion below for more information on
tomorrow's fire weather forecast.
..Elliott.. 11/16/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0146 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025/
...Synopsis...
Elevated fire weather conditions will likely return to parts of the
southern High Plains Monday afternoon with lingering fire weather
concerns possible for parts of the Mid-Atlantic.
...Southern High Plains...
The upper trough currently over southern CA is forecast to
de-amplify as it progresses northeastward into the central Rockies
by Monday evening. Lee troughing will become more pronounced through
Monday afternoon ahead of the approaching wave, resulting in
strengthening winds across much of the Plains. Dry conditions to the
west of the surface trough will likely be exacerbated by increasing
westerly downslope flow, resulting in fairly widespread RH
reductions into the teens to low 20s. Latest ensemble consensus
suggests that 15-20 mph winds are likely across eastern NM into the
TX Panhandle where ERCs range from the 80-90th percentiles.
Consequently, areas of elevated fire weather conditions appear
probable for at least a few hours Monday afternoon. Similar wind/RH
conditions may emerge across portions of southern CO in the
immediate lee of the Rockies; however, confidence in this potential
is more limited due to spread in wind magnitudes in recent high-res
guidance.
...Mid-Atlantic...
Northwesterly offshore flow is expected to persist through Monday
afternoon across much of the Mid-Atlantic region, though the
departure of the primary surface low to the northeast and building
high pressure will favor weaker winds compared to today/Sunday.
Regardless, dry conditions will persist with another day of 20-35%
RH minimums expected. Locally elevated fire weather conditions may
develop where winds can reach into the low/mid teens.
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 162132
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0332 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025
Valid 181200Z - 241200Z
Ensemble guidance suggests a deep mid/upper-level trough will shift
from portions of central/southern California at the start of Day
3/Tuesday and across the Southwest through Day 5/Thursday. Lift
associated with the trough is expected to focus a broad area of
wetting rainfall (some of which may be heavy) across the
southern/central Plains late Day 4/Wednesday through Day 5/Thursday,
which should help to improve fuel statuses across the area. Overall,
Critical fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited across
the CONUS through next week.
..Elliott.. 11/16/2025
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