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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

   FNUS21 KWNS 181615

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1115 AM CDT Sat Sep 18 2021

   Valid 181700Z - 191200Z


   Today's fire weather forecast remains on track, with only minor
   modifications needed based on the latest weather and fuel guidance.
   The primary adjustment with this forecast update was to extend the
   northern Rockies Elevated fire weather area farther east into
   portions of west-central South Dakota, western Nebraska, and north
   eastern Colorado, where minimum RH values less than 10% (near 5%
   locally), sustained surface winds of 15-20 mph, and receptive fuels
   are expected. While some of these areas may see a bit lighter wind
   speeds (e.g., across portions of Northeast Colorado where sustained
   winds of 10-15 mph are more likely) ERC values exceeding the 90th
   percentile across the area coupled with the extremely low minimum RH
   values should foster Elevated fire weather conditions this

   Please see the previous discussion below for more information on
   today's fire weather forecast.

   ..Elliott.. 09/18/2021

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0107 AM CDT Sat Sep 18 2021/

   Elevated to critical fire weather conditions remain likely today as
   winds increase in response to an approaching upper-level trough in
   the Pacific Northwest. Hot, dry, and windy conditions across much of
   the West yesterday aided in curing fuels, which will help support
   widespread fire weather concerns today. While this system will bring
   beneficial rainfall to parts of the Pacific Northwest, thunderstorm
   chances across Utah, western Colorado, and southwest Wyoming may
   pose a low-end lightning-driven fire weather concern. 

   ...Western Great Basin into Southwest Montana...
   VWP observations over the past few hours from ID and MT show
   strengthening mid-level flow as the upper-level wave continues to
   move onshore across the Pacific Northwest. This trend is expected to
   continue through the day as an axis of stronger flow becomes
   established from northwest NV into ID and western MT ahead of a cold
   front. Diurnal boundary-layer mixing and a nearly uni-directional
   wind profile will allow for efficient downward transfer of stronger
   winds aloft. Ensemble guidance continues to show high probabilities
   for 20-25 mph winds through this corridor with gusts up to 30-40 mph
   (and possibly up to 40-50 mph for wind-prone locations). Receptive
   fuels are already in place for most locations and RH reductions into
   the low teens are expected. Critical conditions remain most likely
   through this northwestern NV-southwest MT corridor, but may extend
   as far south as the lee of the central/southern Sierra. There is
   some uncertainty regarding the westward extent of both critical and
   elevated conditions due to cloud cover/rainfall associated with the
   approaching cold front.

   ...Southern Montana to northeast Wyoming...
   Southwesterly winds will likely increase to 15-25 mph this afternoon
   as a surface low deepens over the Canadian Prairies. Downslope
   affects will aid in RH reductions into the low teens to low 20s, and
   boundary-layer mixing will support wind gusts upwards of 25-35 mph.
   Critical conditions are expected across south-central MT into
   northeast WY where downslope warming/drying will be strongest in the
   lee of the terrain, but may occur as far north as northeast MT. 

   ...Utah, Western Colorado, and southwest Wyoming...
   Thunderstorms are likely today across much of UT and into adjacent
   areas of western CO and southwest WY as a surge of monsoonal
   moisture shifts northward in tandem with a weak upper-level impulse.
   Recent fuel analyses indicate some locations have receptive fuels
   with ERC values above the 75th percentile and fine fuel moisture
   values below 5%. As such, lightning may pose a low-end fire weather
   concern. However, no highlights will be introduced given the overall
   modest fuel status of the region and high wetting rain potential.

U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

   FNUS22 KWNS 180651

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0151 AM CDT Sat Sep 18 2021

   Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

   Fire weather concerns will become limited spatially Sunday as
   showers and thunderstorms overspread the inter-mountain West behind
   a cold front. A trailing surface trough along the High Plains will
   induce downslope flow across eastern WY and CO, which may result in
   elevated fire weather conditions. Likewise, increasing winds ahead
   of a cold front may support areas of elevated conditions across
   southeastern Nevada. Fire weather concerns may also evolve across
   parts of the southern Sierra, but will likely remain too localized
   for highlights.

   ...Eastern Wyoming and High Plains...
   Downslope west to southwesterly winds will likely increase to 15-20
   mph across eastern WY Sunday afternoon, and a few locations may see
   sustained winds near 25 mph prior to a cold frontal passage late in
   the afternoon. RH reductions into the teens are possible, but may be
   hindered by increasing clouds through the day. Elevated conditions
   appear most likely across east-central WY, but may evolve as far
   south as eastern CO. 

   ...Southeast Nevada...
   A cold front is forecast to gradually translate southeastward across
   the Great Basin through the day Sunday. Ahead of this boundary, warm
   temperatures and mostly clear skies will support deep boundary-layer
   mixing that will likely result in RH reductions into the teens with
   breezy 15-20 mph winds. Elevated conditions are possible, but the
   spatial extent of the threat remains somewhat uncertain, especially
   given the potential for wetting rainfall across far eastern NV and
   western UT over the next 24 hours.

   ..Moore.. 09/18/2021

U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

   FNUS28 KWNS 172025

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0325 PM CDT Fri Sep 17 2021

   Valid 191200Z - 251200Z

   The fire-weather pattern will start off relatively active as dry and
   breezy conditions precede a cold front across the interior West,
   overspread by strong winds aloft associated with a mid-level trough
   Days 3-4/Sunday-Monday. Thereafter, an upper ridge will traverse the
   West Days 5-6/Tuesday-Wednesday before the passage of a second
   mid-level trough Day 7/Thursday. However, favorable wildfire-spread
   conditions appear more localized after Day 4/Monday.

   ...Days 3-4/Sunday-Monday...
   Gradient-induced flow ahead of the cold front, along with downward
   momentum transport of the stronger flow aloft within a dry and
   well-mixed boundary layer, will promote dry and windy conditions
   across portions of the Great Basin into the central Rockies Day
   3/Sunday, where 40% Critical probabilities have been maintained.
   Portions of the central/southern High Plains have had 40% Critical
   probabilities withheld this outlook for Day 3/Sunday. However,
   Elevated highlights may be introduced in either the  Days 1 or 2
   Outlooks pending drier trends in future guidance. By Day 4/Monday,
   the surface cold front and associated preceding dry/breezy
   conditions (and 40% Critical highlights) will then move
   southeastward, towards the Four Corners/southern High Plains. Areas
   highlighted with 40% Critical probabilities Days 3-4 have the
   greatest chance at experiencing 15-25 mph sustained winds
   overlapping 15-20% RH for at least a few hours each day, and where
   fuels are at least modestly receptive to wildfire spread.

   ...Days 5-8/Tuesday-Friday...
   As upper-support begins to wane across the interior West beyond Day
   5, fire weather concerns are expected to become more localized
   overall, constrained to terrain-favoring areas. It is possible that
   regional areas of Elevated-equivalent conditions may develop, but
   forecast uncertainty remains too low to address with any
   probabilities at this time.

   ..Squitieri.. 09/17/2021

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