ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 270700
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0200 AM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...Synopsis...
A broad upper ridge will continue to move eastward over the central
US as troughing intensifies over the West Coast. A weak trough will
slide under the ridge supporting scattered storms over the Southwest
and South TX. Strong westerly flow will support the development of a
lee low, favoring gusty downslope winds over parts of the Plains.
...Southwest and southern Plains...
A weak upper trough will continue to move eastward over the
Southwest underneath the broader ridge over the central US. Moisture
will continue to gradually move west into the higher terrain of the
southern High Plains. Scattered thunderstorms are likely through the
afternoon. With low PWAT values (0.5-0.8 inches) these storms are
likely to be high-based with minimal wetting rainfall. This will
likely support dry lightning strikes within receptive fuels. Dry
thunderstorm probabilities have been maintained across parts of NM.
To the east across parts of OK and KS, southerly 20-25 mph winds are
likely for much of the afternoon. Warm temperatures and drier
conditions ahead of the deeper moisture return will favor RH
minimums of 20-25% by mid-afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms are
possible by early evening, but a few hours of elevated fire weather
conditions appear probable given receptive fuels and ongoing fire
activity.
...Great Basin and central Rockies...
A broad western US trough and enhanced mid-level flow will gradually
overspread the Great basin and central Rockies this afternoon.
Westerly surface winds between 20-25 mph are expected across a large
swath of the northern Great Basin and into central/eastern WY. Dry
conditions currently in place across NV will spread northeast with
RH reductions into the teens to low 20s. Although widespread
elevated fire weather conditions are expected, latest fuel guidance
suggests only portions of WY are of sufficient dryness to support
fire-weather concerns. An Elevated area has been added to cover the
risk of dry and windy downslope conditions.
...South FL...
A few hours of lower RH and occasional gusty winds are possible
across parts of the Southeast and into central and southern FL this
afternoon. While winds are not expected to be overly strong, a few
gusts may reach upwards of 15 mph through the day. Relatively warm
and dry post-frontal conditions will overlap with areas of little
recent rainfall and recent fire activity. This could support locally
elevated fire-weather conditions.
..Lyons.. 03/27/2025
U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 270701
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0201 AM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
...Synopsis...
As the upper ridge over the central US moves eastward, broad
troughing across the West Coast will gradually move over the
Southwest and Southern High Plains. Increasing southwesterly flow
aloft will allow westerly downslope winds across parts of NM and
west TX with dry conditions and some fire-weather risk.
...Southern High Plains...
As broad troughing moves into the Southwest, stronger westerly flow
aloft will first appear over parts of western NM and gradually
spread into west TX. Downslope trajectories and warm temperatures
will support critical RH values of 15-20% through the afternoon.
Aided by deep mixing, stronger westerly flow, and a lee trough,
westerly winds of 15-20 mph appear likely. Given the increase in dry
fuels, elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are
expected as the mid-level jet overspreads southern NM/southwest TX
during peak heating.
...Central Plains...
Dry southerly flow is possible over parts of the central Plains
Friday afternoon. While not expected to last long as deeper moisture
arrives from the south, afternoon RH values may briefly touch below
30%. With southerly gusts of 20-25 mph and dry fuels, locally
elevated fire-weather conditions are possible for a few hours.
..Lyons.. 03/27/2025
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 262052
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0352 PM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025
Valid 281200Z - 031200Z
Portions of the southern High Plains will continue to see fire
weather concerns heading into the late week and weekend period as a
series of upper-level disturbances move across the region.
Long-range guidance continues to show a transition to a more
active/progressive upper-level regime heading into weekend,
potentially persisting into the middle of next week. This regime
change will feature increasing precipitation chances across much of
the Intermountain West, Great Plains, and eastern U.S., but dry
conditions are expected to persist across the Southwest into the
southern High Plains. This will maintain antecedent dry fuels that
will support a fire weather threat amid increasingly wind/dry
conditions.
...D3/Friday into D5/Sunday - Southern High Plains...
Medium to long-range solutions remain consistent in depicting a
low-amplitude upper trough ejecting into the Southwest and southern
High Plains during the D3/Friday to D4/Saturday period as long-wave
troughing becomes established over the western CONUS. A westerly
downslope flow regime is anticipated both days across NM into
western TX as a surface low deepens over the High Plains and
migrates eastward in tandem with the upper feature. Elevated fire
weather conditions are expected both days with critical wind speeds
most likely on D4/Saturday as the mid-level jet overspreads southern
NM/southwest TX during peak heating. The eastward extent of
elevated/critical fire weather conditions remains uncertain and will
be conditional on the eastward progression of the dryline by late
afternoon. Similarly, rain chances across southwest TX over the next
24 hours may hinder fuel status to some degree, but ongoing drought
conditions may allow for sufficient recovery of fine fuels by
Saturday afternoon.
A second low-amplitude wave will likely pass over the Southwest on
D5/Sunday and will promote secondary lee cyclone development across
northeast NM into western TX. While spread regarding the intensity
and evolution of this secondary low remains somewhat high, ensemble
support remains sufficiently high to maintain highlights. Long-range
ECMWF deterministic solutions and ECENS guidance hints that
additional fire weather concerns are possible by the middle of next
week as a robust surface low deepens over the Plains. GFS/GEFS
solutions show zonal flow to slight ridging over the CONUS during
this period, which limits confidence in the long-range fire weather
prospects.
...D3/Friday into D4/Saturday - Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic...
Dry conditions are expected to persist across the southern
Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic region through the first half of the
weekend. Strengthening gradient winds between an offshore surface
high and an intensifying low over the Plains may result in periods
of dry/windy conditions both D3/Friday and D4/Saturday. While
confidence in critical conditions is too low for highlights, fire
weather concerns may emerge given dry fuels and active fires across
the region.
..Moore.. 03/26/2025
