Forecast Directory
U.S. Alerts
El Dorado Weather Logo
U.S. Radar Loop Conditions Map

U.S. Color Satellite North America Color Infrared Animated Satellite Loop

Interactive Wx Map Live U.S. Google Map Radar Thumbnail Image

US Precipitation 1 day, 24 hour precipitation map

US Temperatures US Conditions Map

US Climate Data US Conditions Map

Southwest Alaska Smokey Air Forecast
AQI & Smoke Map | Burn Area Map | Fire Advisories | Fire Danager Map

U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

   FNUS21 KWNS 191648

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1048 AM CST Tue Jan 19 2021

   Valid 191700Z - 201200Z


   The Elevated and Critical areas have been adjusted to reflect
   current observations and the latest model guidance. Across central
   California, the Elevated area was expanded towards the western
   slopes of the Sierra, as the latest METARs depict 15-25 mph
   sustained downslope flow and RH dropping below 20% in spots. Here,
   fuels are at least marginally receptive to fire spread. Farther west
   towards the Bay Area, widespread 20-30 mph north-northeasterly winds
   are in place, with RH dropping below 30%. Visible satellite imagery
   shows clear skies across central California, with diurnal mixing
   expected to contribute to further lowering RH and resultant
   widespread Elevated/Critical conditions. The marginal receptiveness
   of fuels continues to be the primary factor in a Critical upgrade.

   Farther south across the southern Foothills of southern California,
   Critical highlights have been maintained. The current LAX-DAG
   pressure gradient is near -7 mb, and the latest guidance consensus
   suggests the gradient should maintain this intensity to the end of
   the period. While visible satellite imagery shows widespread clouds
   across all of southern California, widespread 20-40 mph offshore
   winds are being observed at several METAR sites, with a couple
   instances of 60+ mph gusts noted. The prolonged exposure of very dry
   fuels to these very strong winds will continue to foster Critical
   wildfire-spread potential despite the cool, cloudy, and relatively
   moist conditions, characterized by surface RH up to 25-35% in spots.

   Elsewhere across the CONUS, 25-35% surface RH is expected across
   much of eastern Alabama into Georgia, southern South Carolina, and
   northern Florida by afternoon peak heating. 10-hr fuels remain below
   10%, with ERC-G seasonal percentiles exceeding 90% in spots across
   the Southeast. Nonetheless, model guidance consensus continues to
   show weak winds, suggesting that wildfire-spread concerns should
   remain relatively localized, precluding any fire weather highlights.

   ..Squitieri.. 01/19/2021

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1235 AM CST Tue Jan 19 2021/

   Recent water vapor imagery reveals a leading upper-level shortwave
   trough off the southern California/Baja California coast. This
   feature is preceding a more potent upstream low associated with a
   meridional jet streak over the Pacific Northwest. This stronger low
   will deepen further over the next 24 hours as it stalls off the
   southern CA coast. As this occurs, surface pressure falls offshore
   juxtaposed with a building surface high to the north will induce
   strong pressure-gradient winds over much of the southern two-thirds
   of CA. These winds, coupled with dry fuels, will support a fire
   weather concern today through early Wednesday. Elsewhere across the
   CONUS, cool temperatures and/or weak winds will limit most fire
   weather concerns. 

   ...Coastal Southern California...
   Surface observations from Santa Barbara, Ventura, and Los Angeles
   counties show winds gradually beginning to increase with wind gusts
   into the 25-35 mph range. Surface pressure analyses reveal low
   pressure developing along the CA coast ahead of the approaching
   upper-level low to the north. While the proximity to the surface
   trough is maintaining somewhat reasonable winds early this morning,
   winds will begin to increase through the day as the surface low
   deepens and moves offshore. Peak winds are expected by early to mid
   afternoon, and sustained winds near 30-50 mph and potentially
   damaging wind gusts up to 60-80 mph remain likely (especially for
   portions of Ventura and Los Angeles counties). As winds become more
   east/northeasterly through the day, downslope effects will be
   maximized for the coastal hills and lower mountains, allowing
   humidity reductions to 15-20%. While RH values may not consistently
   meet critical thresholds throughout the day, the strong winds and
   unseasonably dry fuels should compensate and support a fire weather
   threat. The offshore pressure gradient is forecast to remain in
   place into the overnight hours, and may support at least elevated
   fire weather conditions well into Wednesday morning (depending on
   overnight RH recoveries in the coastal areas).

   ...Sacramento Valley region...
   Wind gusts into the 45-60 mph range and humidity values as low as
   the mid teens have been noted in recent observations from the
   greater San Francisco Bay area and southwestern Sacramento Valley.
   While early morning RH recoveries are expected for this region,
   winds will likely maintain intensity through the late afternoon
   hours. Recent guidance has come into somewhat better agreement in
   the potential for RH values to fall back into the low 20s and teens
   during the afternoon. Fuels across this region have only recently
   begun to dry out after a few dry/windy days. However, recent fuel
   moisture analyses suggest fine fuel moisture has fallen into the
   single digits and may support fire spread. This factor, combined
   with the strong winds and borderline humidity, warrants the
   northward expansion of the elevated risk area.



Contact Us | Mobile
Never base any life decisions on weather information from this site or anywhere over the Internet.
Site is dedicated to our Lord & Savior Jesus Christ | Random Quotes of Jesus

Copyright © 2021 El Dorado Weather, Inc. | Site Designed By:  El Dorado Weather