U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 261647
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1147 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024
Valid 261700Z - 271200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...
Removed southeast Colorado from the Elevated delineation based on
location of the surface front/dryline this morning and only minimal
northward progression expected. Otherwise no changes were made. See
previous discussion below.
..Bentley.. 04/26/2024
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024/
...Synopsis...
On the backside of a departing mid-level low, enhanced
west-southwesterly flow will continue across southern New Mexico
into portions of the southern High Plains today. Given a dry air
mass in place post-dryline, critical fire-weather conditions will be
favored across this region during the afternoon.
...Southern New Mexico and much of the Southern High Plains...
Deep boundary layer mixing of strong flow aloft and tight surface
pressure gradients will yield sustained winds around 20-25 mph
overlapping relative humidity reductions to around 10-15 percent
across portions of southern New Mexico into portions of the Texas
Panhandle and far western Texas. Fuels within this region are
sufficiently dry, given little to no rainfall in the past 7-14 days,
to support increased fire spread potential and Critical fire weather
conditions. Elevated fire weather concerns will extend as far
northward as southeastern Colorado into the Oklahoma Panhandle.
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 261814
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0114 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...
No changes. See previous discussion below.
..Bentley.. 04/26/2024
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024/
...Synopsis...
A strong mid-level jet streak will round the western trough on
Saturday, with strong lee cyclogenesis resulting across the High
Plains. Strengthening flow amid very dry conditions will lead to
Critical fire weather concerns across portions of the southern High
Plains into the central High Plains.
...Southern and Central High Plains...
A deeply mixed airmass is expected to be in place by Saturday
afternoon across portions of eastern New Mexico into far
southeastern Colorado and eastward into the Oklahoma/Texas
Panhandles. In these regions, sustained surface winds 20-30 mph will
overlap afternoon relative humidity reductions to around 5-10
percent. While some spotty Extremely Critical conditions are
possible, fuels do not yet support inclusion of an Extremely
Critical area at this time. Conditions will be monitored for higher
end potential.
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 261840
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0140 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024
Valid 281200Z - 041200Z
A strong mid-level trough will shift into the Upper Midwest on
Sunday/Monday. Beyond Monday a more zonal pattern should lead to
relatively benign fire weather conditions for much of the day 4-8
period. The only exception will be mid-week when some potential for
lee cyclogenesis in Colorado may increase fire-weather potential.
...Day 3/Sunday - Southern High Plains...
Some dry and breezy conditions are possible in the southern High
Plains again on Sunday. These conditions should be mostly confined
to southeast New Mexico and vicinity where stronger mid-level flow
should be present and at least some weak lee cyclogenesis is
possible with a passing weak mid-level shortwave trough.
...Day 6/Wednesday - eastern New Mexico...
Some forecast guidance shows a mid-level shortwave trough moving
across the Rockies by mid-week with a lee cyclone developing. If
this occurs, some dry and breezy conditions will be likely across
portions of eastern New Mexico. However, there is still considerable
model uncertainty with respect to the evolution of the pattern, and
winds are relatively weak with forecast solutions which do have a
stronger lee cyclone. For those reasons, no probabilities have been
added at this time. The pattern will continue to be monitored.
..Bentley.. 04/26/2024
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