ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 200808

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0208 AM CST Mon Jan 20 2025

   Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

   ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SAN GABRIEL
   MOUNTAINS WEST TOWARDS THE SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS AND SANTA SUSANA
   MOUNTAINS... INCLUDING THE MALIBU COAST...
   ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN
   SAN DIEGO FOOTHILLS INTO THE WESTERN SAN JACINTO MOUNTAINS...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...

   ...Synopsis...
   A strong Santa Ana wind event beginning Monday afternoon will
   persist well into Tuesday afternoon and evening, resulting in
   widespread Critical and Extremely Critical fire-weather conditions
   across much of Southern California. 

   ...Extremely Critical fire-weather conditions for the San Gabriel,
   Santa Monica, and Santa Susana Mountains...

   Extremely Critical fire-weather conditions will persist from the Day
   1 outlook period (Mon) well into Day 2 (Tues). Sustained winds of
   40-45 MPH (gusting 70-100 MPH on mountains, 50-80 MPH in the
   valleys/coastal regions) with single-digit relative humidity values
   as low as 2%-5% will be ongoing at the start of the period,
   subsiding by late Tuesday afternoon/early Tuesday evening. For more
   details, see the current Day 1 fire-weather outlook. 

   ...Extremely Critical fire-weather conditions for portions of the
   eastern San Diego foothills into the western San Jacinto
   Mountains...

   Confidence has increased in strong, dry offshore flow across far
   Southern California, particularly portions of the eastern San Diego
   foothills into the San Jacinto Mountains. Recent 00Z HREF guidance
   shows ensemble mean sustained surface winds as high as 50-55 MPH,
   with the ensemble maximum as high as 60 MPH and gusts as high as 80
   MPH. Coupled with single-digit relative humidities, this will result
   in several hours of Extremely Critical fire-weather conditions
   supportive of rapid wildfire onset and spread, subsiding by late
   Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning.

   ..Halbert.. 01/20/2025

      

   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 192155

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0355 PM CST Sun Jan 19 2025

   Valid 211200Z - 271200Z

   ...Southern California - Day 3/Tuesday...
   Critical to extremely critical fire-weather conditions will be
   ongoing across southern CA at the start of the Day 3/Tuesday period,
   as the offshore pressure gradient will be at peak magnitudes
   (LAX-DAG gradient around -8 to -10 mb). This gradient, coupled with
   continued upper-level support through at least 15Z, will result in
   very strong/gusty northeasterly surface winds and single-digit RH
   across much of southern CA. The strongest winds should remain
   focused over the wind-prone Santa Ana corridor of northern/western
   Los Angeles County into eastern Ventura County -- where the greatest
   risk of Extremely Critical conditions will persist through at least
   15Z. 

   Thereafter, the positive-tilt shortwave trough and strong winds
   aloft that were providing upper-level support for the strong Santa
   Ana event on Day 3/Tuesday will continue east-southeastward into the
   central CONUS. However, strong surface high pressure will persist
   across the Intermountain West, favoring continued dry offshore flow
   across southern CA on Day 4/Wednesday through Day 5/Thursday.
   Current indications are that the offshore pressure gradient will
   yield elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions both
   days/mornings, though the lack of upper-level support limits
   confidence in any more than locally critical conditions --
   precluding 70-percent probabilities at this time.

   ..Weinman.. 01/19/2025