U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 211526
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0926 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2024
Valid 211700Z - 221200Z
The previous forecast remains on track with no changes required.
Recent 15 UTC surface observations show winds increasing to around
15 mph with occasionally stronger gusts and RH falling into the
30-40% range. This aligns well with recent guidance and supports the
ongoing forecast (outlined in the discussion below).
..Moore.. 11/21/2024
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1150 PM CST Wed Nov 20 2024/
...Synopsis...
With a strong upper low over the lower Great Lakes region, strong
flow aloft will overspread portions of the Southeast into Florida. A
deepening low east of the DelMarVa will promote enhanced surface
wind behind the cold front. With minimal precipitation falling over
North Florida, where fuels are quite dry for this time of year, a
period of elevated fire weather is expected. Winds of 10-15 mph and
RH perhaps near 20% in some spots can be expected by the afternoon.
The boundary layer should also deepen sufficiently to support gusts
of up to 20 mph.
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 211830
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2024
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
An Elevated risk area has been introduced for portions of central
FL. Latest guidance has trended towards slightly stronger winds
along the FL peninsula tomorrow as a secondary cold surge pushes
across the region. Gusts up to 15-20 mph will be possible -
especially during the late morning hours - with RH reductions into
the 25-35% range. Dry/windy conditions today across the area and
limited rainfall over the past three days should allow for adequate
drying of fine fuels to support a fire concern.
..Moore.. 11/21/2024
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1151 PM CST Wed Nov 20 2024/
...Synopsis...
A similar upper-level pattern to Thursday will again be present on
Friday. The strong upper low will continue east and a complex
surface low evolution will occur off the Mid-Atlantic/New England
coast. Fire weather conditions are expected to be minimal for most
areas. Northern into central Florida will again be dry. Temperature
will be a bit cooler and RH will be a bit higher. Boundary layer
mixing will also be less than Thursday, tempering gust potential.
With the strongest winds/lowest RH expected over less receptive
fuels, highlights will be withheld. Locally elevated conditions can
be expected.
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 212116
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0316 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2024
Valid 231200Z - 291200Z
Fire weather concerns remain limited through the extended period.
The upper trough over the Great Lakes/Ohio River Valley will
continue to promote widespread rain/snow chances across these
regions and into the Northeast over the next 48 hours. The
precipitation associated with this system, combined with seasonal
temperatures over the next several days, will limit fuel concerns
across the northern/northeastern CONUS. A breakdown of the upper
ridge over the central U.S. will transition into a more zonal flow
regime over this weekend. As this occurs, increasing
west/southwesterly mid-level flow - augmented by transient shortwave
troughs - may promote areas of dry/windy conditions in the lee of
the southern Rockies. Additionally, a dry return flow regime may
become established across the southern Plains this weekend as a lee
trough deepens along the High Plains; however, recent widespread
rainfall should limit fuel status. This regime will be short-lived
as cold air intrusions overspread the Plains behind a deepening
surface low during the early to mid-week period. Recent
precipitation, cool temperatures, and weak gradient winds should
limit fire concerns across the western CONUS.
..Moore.. 11/21/2024
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