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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 261647

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1147 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

   Valid 261700Z - 271200Z

   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH
   PLAINS...

   Removed southeast Colorado from the Elevated delineation based on
   location of the surface front/dryline this morning and only minimal
   northward progression expected. Otherwise no changes were made. See
   previous discussion below.

   ..Bentley.. 04/26/2024

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024/

   ...Synopsis...
   On the backside of a departing mid-level low, enhanced
   west-southwesterly flow will continue across southern New Mexico
   into portions of the southern High Plains today. Given a dry air
   mass in place post-dryline, critical fire-weather conditions will be
   favored across this region during the afternoon. 

   ...Southern New Mexico and much of the Southern High Plains...
   Deep boundary layer mixing of strong flow aloft and tight surface
   pressure gradients will yield sustained winds around 20-25 mph
   overlapping relative humidity reductions to around 10-15 percent
   across portions of southern New Mexico into portions of the Texas
   Panhandle and far western Texas. Fuels within this region are
   sufficiently dry, given little to no rainfall in the past 7-14 days,
   to support increased fire spread potential and Critical fire weather
   conditions. Elevated fire weather concerns will extend as far
   northward as southeastern Colorado into the Oklahoma Panhandle.
      

U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook


   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 260652

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0152 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

   Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND
   CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

   ...Synopsis...
   A strong mid-level jet streak will round the western trough on
   Saturday, with strong lee cyclogenesis resulting across the High
   Plains. Strengthening flow amid very dry conditions will lead to
   Critical fire weather concerns across portions of the southern High
   Plains into the central High Plains.

   ...Southern and Central High Plains...
   A deeply mixed airmass is expected to be in place by Saturday
   afternoon across portions of eastern New Mexico into far
   southeastern Colorado and eastward into the Oklahoma/Texas
   Panhandles. In these regions, sustained surface winds 20-30 mph will
   overlap afternoon relative humidity reductions to around 5-10
   percent. While some spotty Extremely Critical conditions are
   possible, fuels do not yet support inclusion of an Extremely
   Critical area at this time. Conditions will be monitored for higher
   end potential.

   ..Thornton.. 04/26/2024


U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook


   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 252121

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0421 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

   Valid 271200Z - 031200Z

   A strong mid-level trough will be present across the Southwest CONUS
   at the beginning of the period. This trough will shift into the
   Upper Midwest on Sunday/Monday. Beyond Monday a more zonal pattern
   should lead to relatively benign fire weather conditions for the day
   4-8 period.

   ...Day 3/Sat - Southern High Plains...
   A very strong mid-level jet streak will round the base of the
   mid-upper level trough and eject across the southern High Plains
   Saturday afternoon. A deeply mixed airmass is present across this
   region which will allow for some of this stronger flow to mix to the
   surface. In addition, a developing lee cyclone and the associated
   tightening of the surface pressure gradient will also aid in
   stronger winds at the surface. Relative humidity is expected to be
   around 8 to 12 percent with surface sustained winds around 25 to 35
   mph. While this technically meets the criteria for extremely
   critical fire weather conditions, it does not appear fuels are quite
   to the extremely critical fuel dryness needed to support true
   extremely critical fire weather. However, conditions will be
   monitored for this higher end potential.

   ...Day 4/Sunday - Southern High Plains...
   Some dry and breezy conditions are possible in the southern High
   Plains again on Sunday. These conditions should be mostly confined
   to southeast New Mexico and vicinity where stronger mid-level flow
   should be present and at least some weak lee cyclogenesis is
   possible with a passing weak mid-level shortwave trough.

   ..Bentley.. 04/25/2024
      




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