ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 101947

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0247 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

   Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

   No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous
   discussion below for more information.

   ..Thornton.. 08/10/2025

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0134 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025/

   ...Synopsis...
   Fire weather concerns are expected to abate on Monday across the
   Four Corners region, though some threat for isolated dry
   thunderstorms will continue for parts of central AZ to far western
   NM. A shortwave trough evident in water-vapor imagery over WY/UT is
   forecast to weaken and stall over the southern High Plains by late
   Monday. This will favor subtle surface pressure rises across the
   eastern Great Basin/Four Corners region with relatively weaker
   low-level winds. Although sustained winds will be modest, deep
   mixing will promote occasional gusts upwards of 15-25 mph across
   northern AZ to northwest NM where RH values should fall into the low
   teens. Transient elevated conditions are possible, but poor
   deterministic agreement and/or ensemble consensus precluded
   introducing risk highlights. However, weak orographic ascent along
   the Mogollon Rim within a deeply-mixed, but weakly buoyant, air mass
   will support some potential for isolated dry thunderstorms. Given
   recent dry lightning over the region within a similar thermodynamic
   environment, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights were maintained
   and focused along and north of the more prominent terrain features.

      

   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 102150

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0450 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

   Valid 121200Z - 181200Z

   Upper-level troughing will develop across the Pacific Northwest
   D3/Tuesday into D4/Wednesday, bringing an increase to winds amid dry
   conditions. Rain and thunderstorm chances may increase across this
   region by late in the period. As the western highs shifts into the
   Four Corners Region, monsoonal moisture may return northward across
   portions of Arizona through mid to lake week, with lingering
   isolated dry thunderstorm chances before a shift to more wetting
   rainfall potential.

   ...Dry Thunderstorms...
   Isolated thunderstorms D3/Tuesday - D5/Thursday will become more
   widely scattered with a gradual increase in moisture northward as
   the western high shifts into the Four Corners region through the
   weekend. This may lead to an increase in wetting rainfall, with less
   potential for dry thunderstorms. Some lingering isolated dry
   thunderstorm chances may be possible, but for now this threat
   appears too low for inclusion of any areas.

   ...Wind/RH...
   Breezy conditions are expected across the Pacific Northwest as the
   pattern becomes more progressive, with broad troughing and several
   shortwave disturbances moving through early to mid-week. The most
   widespread winds are expected D4/Wednesday, when Elevated to locally
   Critical conditions are expected across portions of the Columbia
   River Basin in eastern Washington and Oregon as a trough moves
   inland and enhanced westerly flow overspreads the Cascade Range. A
   40% delineation was added with this outlook to cover this potential.

   ..Thornton.. 08/10/2025