South Lake Tahoe, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Discussion - Wx Hazards - Wx Special Statements

Weather Forecast Discussion

175
FXUS65 KREV 021023
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
223 AM PST Thu Jan 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...

* Today starts quiet this second day of the new year. If you need to
  travel over the Sierra east or west, today is your day.

* A fast moving storm arrives Friday afternoon bringing another
  round of gusty winds, valley rains and mountain snow.

* Next week, a slow and gradual warming trend appears with some
  signals for weak, fast-moving storms passing just north of the
  region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A progressive short wave ridge that passes quickly over the western
US today will bring a brief period of dry and quiet conditions.  The
west then southwest flow aloft will confine moisture and shower
activity confine well to the north in northern California closer to
the Oregon border. Any areas of morning freezing fog that had
developed in Sierra valleys will not last long and burn-off later
this morning. This brief period of nicer weather will allow for
uninterrupted travel over Sierra passes before the next significant
storm system bring another round of snow and wind impacts to the
region.

Friday Storm System:

The new year starts with its first impactful winter storm system
that is projected to arrive in northeast CA, and the Sierra mid-
morning through afternoon Friday with gusty ridges winds 80-90 mph
and quick bursts of heavy snowfall over mountain passes. This
storm system will then quickly push into western NV the remainder
of Friday afternoon and evening with increased shower chances and
gusty southwest winds.

* Winds: This round of strong southwest winds with produce gusts
  up to 35-45 mph in most western NV valleys, and 80+ mph across
  Sierra ridges. Hi-Res ensemble guidance projects wind prone
  areas along the I-580 corridor through the Washoe Valley,
  Highway 395 corridor through Douglas County to Holbrook
  Junction, and then into Mono County, as well as Highway 95
  through Mineral County to once again see a 60-70% chance for
  peak gusts reaching 50+ mph. Look for wind gusts to gradually
  dissipate Friday evening into Saturday morning as gradients
  relax behind the exiting cold front.

* Precipitation: Look for light to moderate snowfall to start
  across higher elevations of northeast CA early Friday morning
  that quickly shifts southeast into the central Sierra and the
  Lake Tahoe Basin late morning Friday and afternoon. Quick bursts
  of heavy snow showers will bring 1-2 inch snowfall rates for
  higher mountain passes above 6500-7000 feet like Donner, Yuba
  Pass, Echo Summit late Friday morning into the afternoon as
  well. Multi-run ensemble guidance, however, does shows a slight
  upward trend in liquid equivalent amounts along and west of the
  Sierra Crest above 7000 feet. Therefore, hi-Res ensemble and
  blended project a 30-50% chance for up to 3-5 inches of snowfall
  falling on higher mountain passes beginning around 10 AM
  through 4 PM Friday. Snowfall intensity will diminish later
  Friday evening, and become more showery through Saturday.
  Blended guidance still projects up to 8-10 inches of new snow on
  higher western peaks around the Lake Tahoe Basin. Rainfall
  amounts for showers spilling over into western NV Friday
  afternoon and early evening will range from 0.10-0.25 inches
  across the Sierra Front to a few hundredths of an inch over the
  Basin and Range.

* Impacts: Be prepared for hazardous driving conditions in wind
  prone areas, especially for high profile vehicles. Wind gusts
  reaching 40-50 mph will bring choppy lake conditions with wave
  heights of 2-4 feet on larger area lakes. Also, look for brief
  periods of blowing dust rising from areas dry lake beds/playas
  across the Basin and Range. In addition to gusty winds over higher
  Sierra passes, snowfall across the region may create additional
  travel challenges Friday morning and afternoon, before tapering
  off overnight Friday into Saturday. Travelers should anticipate
  chain controls, delays, and hazardous driving conditions over
  mountain passes. It is advised to check road conditions with
  CalTrans and NDOT before traveling into the mountains.

Saturday Onward:

* Much of the weekend will see a dry northwest flow loft that
  pulls chillier temperatures into the Sierra and western NV. The
  passage of an inside slider-like system through the region
  Monday will bring low confidence chances of a few showers along
  the OR border into northwest NV. High pressure ridging quickly
  into the Great will also allow for gusty northeast to east
  ridges winds across the Sierra later Tuesday afternoon through
  early Wednesday morning. Otherwise, look for drier conditions
  and a return of valley inversions under clear skies and lighter
  winds. -Amanda

&&

.AVIATION...

* Mostly VFR conditions and light winds will prevail for Sierra and
  western NV main terminals through today.

* A quick moving storm system advancing into the region will
  increase FL100 winds to 45-60kts between 12-21Z Friday.
  Therefore, Sierra ridge wind gusts will increase to 70-80 kts
  Friday morning into the afternoon. Look for onset of mountain
  wave turbulence, rotors, and LLWS for Sierra and western NV
  terminals between 09Z Friday through 06Z Saturday.

* Hi-Res model guidance projects wind gusts for Sierra terminals
  (KTRK/KTVL) to reach 35-45kt during the same time period. The
  same guidance projects a 50-70% for wind gusts exceeding 40 kts
  for KRTS-KRNO-KCXP-KMEV between 18-23Z Friday. KMMH has a 40-60%
  chance for winds exceeding 40 kts between 19-00Z. Most other
  terminals across the Basin and Range could also see gusts
  approach 30-40 kts for Friday afternoon as well.

* For Sierra terminals Friday morning and afternoon, periods of
  -SHSN/SHSN could lower CIG/VIS conditions to MVFR/IFR with
   quick bursts of +SHSN bringing LIFR conditions through the
   afternoon. Snow Accumulation chances for Friday: 30-40% for up
   to 1-2 inches at KTVL, and 40-50% up to 1 inch at KTRK. Pilots
   should look for rapidly changing airfield conditions and
   increasing mountain obscurations Friday morning into the
   evening. -Amanda

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

Hazardous Weather Outlook

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