South Lake Tahoe, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Discussion - Wx Hazards - Wx Special Statements

Weather Forecast Discussion

345
FXUS65 KREV 252127
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
227 PM PDT Sat Apr 25 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Periods of rain and mountain snow are expected through tonight
  with isolated thunderstorms this afternoon.

* Showery weather continues Sunday into early next week with
  another round of afternoon thunderstorms possible.

* Drier and warmer weather favored late next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

According to the latest RAP upper air analysis, an upper trough
resides over the NW CONUS this afternoon with a weak Pacific low
just off the coast of CA. Current radar and satellite imagery report
showers having already developed in Lassen, Mineral and N. Washoe
counties this afternoon. While the entire region sees some chances
for precipitation today and tonight, forecast models are
highlighting two general areas for better chances (60-90%) for
showers today: NE CA and far NW NV as well as portions of the CWA
along and south of US-50. When looking at the latest HRRR run
convective parameters, there is between 100-300 J/kg of SBCAPE in
NE CA and N. Washoe County, which will support a 15-30% chance
for isolated thunderstorms this afternoon. Areas along and south
of US-50 will also see up to around a 15% chance for an isolated
thunderstorm or two this afternoon. Thunderstorms do look to stay
sub-severe, but will be capable of producing erratic, gusty
outflow wind gusts up to around 40 mph as well as brief periods of
moderate to heavy rainfall. Please keep this in mind if you have
outdoor plans today.

As for Sierra snow potential today and tonight, snow levels look to
be around 8000 ft this afternoon, but will decrease to around
5500-6000 by Sunday morning following a cold front passage this
evening. When looking at the latest NBM snowfall probabilities,
the Sierra crest sees around a 40-60% chance of 6 inches or more of
snow by Sunday morning. Snow-prone portions of US-395 in Mono
County have a 20-50% chance for 2 inches or more while I-80 at
Donner Pass has a 10-20% chance of exceeding 1 inch of snow. While
the latest Winter Storm Severity Index (WSSI) shows only pockets
of minor impacts through tomorrow morning, please use caution if
traveling through the Sierra tonight and tomorrow as roads may be
slick. The NBM still shows the White Mountains with the highest
potential snowfall amounts as there is a 20-40% chance that they
see 10+ inches of snow.

For tomorrow, more rain and mountain snow showers are expected
within the region as the upper trough reorients itself over the
CWA. The forecast also calls for a 10-30% chance for isolated
thunderstorms in the afternoon with the higher end chances seen in
the eastern portions of Pershing and Churchill Counties.
Thunderstorms are anticipated to not be severe again tomorrow, but
will be monitoring conditions in case this changes. Daytime high
temperatures cool behind the cold front with highs in W NV and NE
CA valleys being between the middle 50s and the lower 60s while
the Sierra communities will see high temperatures in the 40s.

Precipitation chances (~15-45%) will linger going into Monday, but
begin to taper off on Monday night. Beyond Monday, the forecast
for the rest of the work week shows dry conditions. Temperatures
also look to go on a warming trend next week to where portions of
W NV including the Reno-Sparks area currently see around a 30-60%
NBM probability of reaching or exceeding 80 degrees by next
Saturday. -078

&&

.AVIATION...

Rain and mountain snow showers continues to be the main weather
concern for the region today and going through the night. The area
forecast also has around a 10-30% chance for isolated thunderstorms
within the region. There is currently low confidence on whether
storms will impact TAF sites (KTVL-KMMH-KMEV having a 10-20% chance
between 25/22Z-26/03Z), but will continue to monitor conditions and
amend TAFs as needed. However, showers today may bring temporary MVFR
conditions to area terminal through 26/03Z. KTRK may see the risk
of morning fog causing sub-VFR visibilities between 26/12-18Z,
but low confidence at this time as winds could inhibit fog formation.
More rain and mountain snow chances are expected on Sunday. -078

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

Hazardous Weather Outlook

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