Pollock Pines, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Discussion - Wx Hazards - Wx Special Statements

Weather Forecast Discussion

647
FXUS66 KSTO 050950
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
150 AM PST Tue Nov 5 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Critical fire weather conditions from gusty north winds and dry
conditions expected through Wednesday for portions of the Central
Valley and Delta. A brief period of calmer weather arrives through
the end of the week before the weather pattern becomes more
unsettled this weekend into early next week.

.DISCUSSION...
As of early this morning, some upper level clouds are drifting
across interior NorCal, with otherwise light winds and seasonable
temperatures underneath. The aforementioned cloud cover is the
product of an upper level shortwave currently ejecting out of
British Columbia toward the Four Corners region. While
precipitation impacts are expected to remain displaced well
eastward of interior NorCal, the proximity of the mid level
features associated with this system will introduce increasing
north to east winds beginning later today.

As the shortwave digs toward the Four Corners throughout the day
today, the nose of the attendant mid level jet is expected to filter
into the Valley. This will allow for north winds gusting 25 to 35
mph through the Valley and Delta from late this morning into the
afternoon. These increasing northerly winds will also work to
lower humidity throughout the day as well, with daytime minimum
humidity values into the teens to low 20s for much of interior
NorCal.

Moving into the evening and overnight hours, the aforementioned
shortwave is expected to dig southwestward from the Four Corners
region toward the Great Basin/Desert Southwest. Given this
trajectory and the deepening trough, the attendant mid level jet is
expected to continue through the Valley into Wednesday. As a result,
the strongest north to east winds are expected to occur overnight
Tuesday into Wednesday morning, before gradually tapering down late
in the day on Wednesday. While strongest wind gusts are expected
from Interstate 5 westward, highest probabilities (70% to 90%) of
wind gusts exceeding 45 mph are expected west of Interstate 5 and
south of the Coastal Range into the Delta.

These persistent north winds are expected to limit overnight
humidity recovery to generally around 35% to 50% in strongest wind
areas. Additionally, daytime minimum humidity on Wednesday will
remain similar to Tuesday, with teens to low 20s expected for much
of interior NorCal. As a result, a Red Flag Warning goes into effect
at 10 am PST today and continues through 4 pm PST on Wednesday for
the Delta and western portions of the Central Valley. With the
strongest winds expected late Tuesday through Wednesday, a Wind
Advisory also goes into effect at 10 pm PST today, continuing
through 6 pm PST on Wednesday for similar portions of the Delta and
Central Valley.

Despite the somewhat more active upper level pattern, temperatures
through the remainder of the week are expected to largely stagnate.
Upper 60s to mid 70s are expected across the Delta, Valley, and
foothills, with 50s to 60s at higher elevations. Overnight low
temperatures will fluctuate night to night, primarily dependent on
cloud cover and overnight winds, and while frost potential at lower
elevations is expected to remain near zero, probabilities of low
temperatures less than 40F are sitting around 25% to 40%,
particularly on Thursday and Friday morning.

&&

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Saturday THROUGH Tuesday)...
Moving into the weekend, ensemble guidance is in generally good
agreement on a weak shortwave traveling across the Pacific
Northwest. There is some uncertainty on the timing of this wave,
but overall passage is expected midday Saturday into early Sunday.
While overall impacts are expected to be minimal at most, some
isolated to scattered showers will be possible across the northern
Valley and adjacent higher elevations. Even still, current
probabilities of exceeding 0.1" of precipitation in these areas
sit around 20% to 40% at this time. Ensemble guidance then begins
to diverge from Sunday into next week as a longwave trough looks
to impact interior NorCal in some capacity. While increasing
precipitation potential will be possible during this time frame,
there is large uncertainty in how this system will eventually
progress. Regardless, a more unsettled weather pattern at the very
least is anticipated toward the end of the extended forecast
period.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions expected to persist across interior NorCal next 24
hours. Generally light north to east winds 12 kts or less through
the morning, gusting 20 to 30 kts after 17z. A secondary peak in
north to east winds gusting 30 to 50 kts is then expected after
06z Wednesday, with strongest gusts through the Delta and along
the Sierra.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 4 PM PST Wednesday
for Carquinez Strait and Delta-Central Sacramento Valley in
Glenn, Colusa, Yuba, Northern Sutter, and Butte County Below
1000 Ft-Eastern Mendocino NF-Northern San Joaquin Valley in San
Joaquin and Stanislaus Counties Below 1000 ft-Southern
Sacramento Valley in Yolo-Sacramento Far Western Placer,
southern Sutter and Solano County Below 1000 Ft.

Wind Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 6 PM PST Wednesday for
Carquinez Strait and Delta-Central Sacramento Valley-Mountains
Southwestern Shasta County to Western Colusa County-Northern San
Joaquin Valley-Southern Sacramento Valley.

&&

$$

Hazardous Weather Outlook

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