155
FXUS66 KSTO 261939
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
1239 PM PDT Mon Oct 26 2026

For additional details on weather and expected impacts over the
next 7 days, please visit weather.gov/sto/briefing.

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Cool and dry weather through Friday

 - Breezy southwest winds today, strongest over the higher
   elevations of the southern Cascades and northern Sierra

 - Pattern change to unsettled weather this weekend

.DISCUSSION...

...Today through Friday...
Latest GOES-west visible satellite shows some low to mid level
clouds over the mountains this afternoon, especially for Shasta
County and the Coast Range. Temperatures are currently trending
approximately 3 to 8 degrees cooler than this time yesterday
across much of the forecast area. Breezy southwest winds are
currently being observed over the higher elevations of the
southern Cascades and Sierra Crest, with gusts of 20 to 40 mph.
Winds are expected to gradually decrease as we head into this
evening.

The upper level pattern will feature troughing over the
Pacific Northwest that will keep temperatures below normal over
the next several days with a general cooling trend. Forecast high
temperatures are expected to be in the 60s to low 70s in the
Valley, 50s to 60s in the foothills, and 40s to 60s in the
mountains. Cold morning lows are expected for the mountains and
higher elevation basins the next few days, with near to below
freezing temperatures. Patchy fog or haze will be possible each
morning in the Valley. Dry weather will prevail over the next
several days with no precipitation in the forecast until the
weekend. Lighter onshore flow is expected Tuesday, with a
transition to a brief period of northern flow Wednesday morning.

...This Weekend...
A pattern change to unsettled weather will bring renewed
precipitation chances to the forecast this weekend. Latest
guidance indicates that the system has slowed and precipitation
amounts have trended slightly lower. There is still some
uncertainty in the track and strength of this. Best chances for
precipitation are currently over the mountains south of Interstate
80. The National Blend of Models currently advertises a 30 to 50
percent probability of snow amounts greater than 2" over the
higher Sierra peaks for Saturday-Sunday. Wetting rain (>0.10")
probabilities for the same time frame are around 50 to 70
percent for the mountains and 15 to 30 percent for the Valley.
Ensemble guidance is still hinting at the potential for unsettled
weather to continue into the first week of November as well,
however there is more uncertainty beyond days 6-7. Some of the
cluster analysis is showing a period of ridging early next week
with offshore troughing. Be sure to check back for updates and
plan ahead for unsettled weather!

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. Winds
generally less than 12 kts everywhere.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$