000
FXUS66 KSTO 262212
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
212 PM PST Sat Nov 26 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Pattern change to cooler weather starts Sunday. Chances for
precipitation Monday and again mid to late week, with periods of
locally breezy winds.

&&

.DISCUSSION (Tonight THROUGH Monday)...
Gusty winds up to 25 mph over the north and west end of the
valley will taper off this evening. A cooling trend will start on
Sunday as a low pressure area approaches the region. Slightly
cooler air and some cloud cover will start to trend temperatures
downward. The weak trough will move through the region late
Sunday night through Monday night. Precipitation amounts look very
light with only up to a couple of inches of snow expected. Snow
levels look to be between 3500 and 4500 ft. Precipitation in the
valley will be very sparse with the best chances over the north
end of the valley. Most valley areas are expected to remain dry.

Colder air behind this system will lead to a couple of cold
morning temperatures. Temperatures Tuesday will should lower into
the mid 30s with areas of frost expected in the morning. Daytime
highs will be in the 50s for the valley.
&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Wednesday THROUGH Saturday)...

Wednesday morning will start out very cold and will be the coldest
day of next week. Temperatures are mainly forecast around freezing
in the valley with some of the colder spots dipping into the upper
20s. Zonal flow will set up ahead of a system that will be
dropping down from the north. Cooler air and some cloud cover is
expected to keep temperatures in the 50s for the valley.

Wednesday night into Friday morning the system will move through
the region. Models are mixed on the snow levels generally ranging
between 4500 to 6000 feet for most of the storm with the higher
elevation favored by the European model. Snow levels over the
Southern Cascades will be about a thousand feet lower than what
was earlier indicated. Another system will move into the region
next Saturday. The European is much wetter and stronger than the
GFS at this point and ensembles seem to be doing a blend of both.
GFS wants to bring a dry day for most of Friday with the European
the NBM favoring continued rain. High uncertainty with this later
storm continues at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...

Areas of northerly surface wind gusts 15-25 kts thru 02Z Sunday
in the northern Sacramento Valley. MVFR/IFR visibility possible
for HZ/BR in the far southern Sacramento Valley and northern San
Joaquin Valley after 03Z Sunday. VFR conditions elsewhere over
interior NorCal next 24 hrs.
&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$