000
FXUS66 KSTO 252217
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
217 PM PST Thu Feb 25 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Mild and dry weather expected through the weekend. Breezy north
to east winds return Saturday into Sunday morning. Unsettled
weather may return early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Quiet conditions prevail across interior NorCal this afternoon
under dry northwest flow. Afternoon temperatures will reach into
the mid 60s to low 70s in the Valley, with mid 40s to 50s over the
mountains. Similar conditions are expected on Friday, except for
slightly cooler daytime temperatures for locations generally north
of I-80. Cooler air will continue to move into the region on
Saturday continuing the cooling trend.

Ensemble solutions in good agreement that an upper trough will
dig into the Great Basin on Saturday. This pattern will favor
another round of breezy north to east winds Saturday into Sunday
morning. Latest forecast indicates wind gusts in the 20 to 35 mph
range in the Valley, with gusts 40-50 mph over the mountains.
Strongest gusts for the Valley will be late morning into the
afternoon hours. Meanwhile, northeasterly to easterly winds over
mountains will be increasing during the overnight hours.

Breezy conditions may linger into Sunday morning over the
mountains before subsiding. Dry conditions and milder temperatures
are expected on Sunday.

&&

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Monday THROUGH Thursday)...
Ensemble guidance in the extended is a mixed-bag with the
possibility of light precipitation chances returning late
Monday/Tuesday timeframe. See no reason to deviate from the
National Blend of Models due to the heightened uncertainty, which
presently paints a swath of 20 to 40 percent PoPs for the northern
Sacramento Valley and as far south as I-80 in the Sierra.

In the far extended, guidance suggests the another chance of wet
weather around March 5-6. Any opportunity for precipitation is
welcome at this point in the wet season, especially considering
the accumulated deficits water year-to-date: -12.89 inches for
Redding, -7.43 inches for Sac Exec. Keep in mind as the calendar
flips to March, climatology begins to back off on our normals. For
both the northern and southern ends of the Sacramento Valley,
normal daily precipitation amounts are cut in half from March 1 to
March 31. While storm systems will undoubtedly bring yet-to-be-
determined quantities of precipitation to the region over the
course of the month, the window of opportunity for "catching-up"
begins to close. // Rowe

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are forecast to prevail throughout northern
interior California over the next 24 hours. Winds are generally
forecast to be at or below 12 kt.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$