937
FXUS66 KSTO 262052
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
1252 PM PST Thu Feb 26 2026

..KEY MESSAGES...

 - Showers and thunderstorms mainly over the northern Sacramento
   Valley, foothills and mountains this weekend into early next
   week, otherwise dry weather prevails

 - Warming conditions likely over the next week with above normal
   temperatures

&&

.DISCUSSION...

...Today - Friday...
Warmer and drier weather is the main highlight for weather today
as this morning`s fog has burned off. Forecast highs are expected
to be in the 60s to 70s in the Valley and foothills, and 50s to
70s in the mountains. Forecast highs and lows will be trending
above normal for late February climatology. Patchy fog will be
expected in the mornings as well, especially from the
Central/Southern Sac Valley southward.

...Saturday - Sunday...
Ensemble guidance indicates an upper level low approaching the
West Coast and moving into California this weekend into early next
week. This will bring showers and thunderstorms to the area with
best chances are over the northern and central Sacramento Valley
and in the foothills and mountains. The latest run of the National
Blend of Models (NBM) shows roughly a 15-30% chance of
thunderstorms this weekend over those aforementioned locations
with best chances to see storms from 12 PM - 8 PM. Heavy rain
rates and gusty winds are the main threats with any developed
thunderstorm given the warm nature of this system but will
continue to monitor the forecast to assess thunderstorm potential.

Warmer than average temperatures are also favored to continue over
this timeframe with highs generally in the 60s to 70s in the
Valley and foothills, and 50s to 70s in the mountains. Dry weather
then prevails across the area mid next week.

...Early Next Week...
Decreasing thunder chances and overall precipitation impacts on
Monday as we transition back to warmer, drier conditions over
Northern CA by mid to late week. Afternoon highs in the 60s
throughout the Valley with fairly quiet weather highlights at the
moment.

&&

.AVIATION...

General VFR conditions returned late morning with light north
wind gusts up to 10-15 kts until IFR to LIFR conditions
redeveloping tonight after 06z Friday thru 18z Friday from
fog/mist from the Central Sacramento Valley southward and their
adjacent eastern foothills.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$