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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sun Jun 8 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart
NNNN
    

919 
AXNT20 KNHC 080445
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Sun Jun 8 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0445 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A central Atlantic tropical wave axis has been relocated and is 
now analyzed along 53W from French Guinea to 11N. Scattered 
showers and thunderstorms are along the wave axis, west of the 
wave to Suriname, and east of the wave over northeast Brazil.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 11N15W and 
continues southwestward to 09N20W, where it transitions to the 
ITCZ that extends from 09N20W to 05N50W. Scattered moderate 
convection is seen within 120 nm north and south of the ITCZ.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

High pressure continues to extend westward from the Atlantic to
across Florida and the central Gulf waters. While, a trough is 
analyzed over the Yucatan Peninsula. The related gradient is 
allowing for gentle to moderate winds west of 90W, except for 
fresh lo locally strong NE winds north of the Yucatan Peninsula. 
East of 90W, light to gentle winds prevail, except for moderate 
winds over the NE part of the basin. Seas are 2-4 ft throughout 
the basin. 

For the forecast, Atlantic high pressure will extend its ridge 
into the eastern Gulf through the weekend, then build modestly 
westward into the central Gulf through the middle of next week. 
Moderate to fresh E to NE winds are expected each afternoon and 
evening north of the Yucatan Peninsula and into the eastern Bay of
Campeche as a trough develops daily and moves westward, with 
moderate to fresh SE winds elsewhere in the western and south- 
central Gulf. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between central Atlantic high pressure and 
relatively lower pressures in South America is supporting fresh 
to strong trades over the south-central Caribbean and the Gulf of
Venezuela. Moderate to fresh trades prevail elsewhere in the 
central basin along with seas of 7 to 9 ft. Gentle to moderate 
trades and 3 to 5 ft seas prevail in the eastern and western 
Caribbean. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is 
evident south of 15N and west of 80W.

For the forecast, weak high pressure N of the region and centered
W of Bermuda will shift NE and into the N central Atlantic 
through the weekend. The Atlantic ridge will then build SW into 
the Bahamas and S Florida through the middle of the week. This 
pattern will lead to fresh to strong trades and moderate to rough 
seas across most of the central basin, spreading westward through 
the middle of next week, except in the SW Caribbean where winds 
will be weaker. Moderate to fresh winds will prevail elsewhere. 
Seas will build to rough with the increasing winds, as well as in 
the Tropical N Atlantic by early next week through at least mid- 
week.

Of Note: A potential for significant rain continues into early 
next week across eastern Nicaragua and possibly into northeast 
Honduras as unsettled weather is forecast to develop across the 
area. Uncertainty in terms of rainfall amounts is high at this 
time. Please refer to your local meteorological office for more 
details. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A tropical wave is analyzed over the basin. Refer to the section
above for details.

Fo the western Atlantic, moderate S to SW winds are noted north 
of 27N and west of 68W due to a somewhat tide pressure gradient 
over the area. The tropical Atlantic is dominated by high pressure
of 1030 mb centered near the Azores. Gentle to moderate trades 
and 3 to 5 ft seas prevail north of 21N. South of 21N, moderate to
locally fresh trades prevail. 

For the forecast west of 55W, Atlantic high pressure will build modestly
W-SW into the Bahamas and S Florida through Tue, then weaken 
slightly by mid-week. Expect fresh to strong winds to pulse each 
afternoon and evening offshore of Hispaniola early next week, with
pulsing moderate to fresh winds off NE Florida and elsewhere 
south of 22N. These winds will weaken somewhat mid- week as the 
high weakens. 

$$
KRV
  

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
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Tropical Weather Outlook...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sat Jun 7 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

1. South of Southern Mexico (EP92):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure 
located about 150 miles south of the southwestern coast of Mexico 
have become better organized this evening. Recent satellite-derived 
wind data indicate that the circulation has become better defined, 
and the system is already producing gale-force winds. If these 
trends continue, advisories could be initiated on a tropical storm 
later tonight. The low is forecast to move west-northwestward at 
around 10 mph during the next few days. Locally heavy rains are 
possible along portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico in 
association with this system, and interests there should monitor its 
progress. For more information on this system, including gale 
warnings, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather 
Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...near 100 percent.

2. Offshore of Southwestern Mexico (EP91): 
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low 
pressure located about 600 miles southwest of the southwestern coast 
of Mexico have become better organized this evening. Gradual 
development of this system is expected, and a tropical depression is 
likely to form on Sunday or early next week as it moves 
northwestward at 5 to 10 mph. For more information on this system, 
including gale warnings, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the 
National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

3. South of the Gulf of Tehuantepec:
An area of low pressure is forecast to develop late next week south 
of southern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for 
some gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression 
could form late next week or next weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.


High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 
KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

Forecaster Reinhart/Jelsema
    

579 
AXPZ20 KNHC 081003
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sun Jun 8 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0930 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Barbara has developed offshore of SW Mexico,  
centered near 15.2N 102.4W at 08/0900 UTC, moving west-northwest 
at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb. Maximum 
sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Scattered to
numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 07N-18N
between 96W-106W. Strengthening is forecast during the next day 
or so, and Barbara is forecast to become a hurricane on Monday. 
Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches, with localized amounts up to 6 
inches, are possible across portions of the Mexican states of 
Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco through Monday. This 
rainfall may lead to areas of flooding and mudslides. Swells 
generated by Barbara will affect portions of the coast of 
southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells are 
likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current 
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather 
office.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued
by the National Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest
Barbara NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Eastern Pacific Gale Warning: Showers and thunderstorms 
associated with a broad area of low pressure located about 600 
nm southwest of the southwestern coast of Mexico have become 
better organized overnight. Gradual development of this system is
expected, and a tropical depression is likely to form on today 
or early this week as it moves NW at 5 to 10 kt. This system has
a high chance of tropical development within the next 48 hrs. 
Despite of tropical development, gale force winds are expected
with this system by this afternoon.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued
by the National Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 12N94W, then resumes
near 08N117W to 07N126W. The ITCZ continues from that point to
08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is N of 06N between
81W-97W, and along the ITCZ and W of 136W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section for information on T.S.
Barbara and the Gale Warning in effect for the area of low 
pressure W of Barbara.

A weak pressure pattern in place is allowing for generally 
gentle to moderate northwest to north winds offshore Baja 
California, with occasional fresh winds between Punta Eugenia
and Cabo San Lazaro. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere off 
southern Mexico and in the Gulf of California. Combined seas are 
4 to 6 ft off Baja California primarily in northwest swell, and 
3 to 5 ft primarily in long-period southwest swell off southern 
Mexico, with the exception of the strong winds related to the now
T.S. Barbara as described above under Special Features. Seas of 
3 ft are over the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, outside of Barbara and the gale-low, expect 
fresh to strong winds with rough seas over the offshore waters 
off Guerrero and Michoacan, with the range of these seas of 8 to 
12 ft late this afternoon and into this evening, building to 10 
to 15 ft tonight.

These adverse marine conditions will expand westward across the 
offshore waters toward Cabo Corrientes through early week as the
systems approach the coast. Mariners should continue to monitor 
the latest statements from the National Hurricane Center, and 
plan their routes accordingly to avoid the adverse marine 
conditions.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

A weak pressure gradient remains over the area resulting
generally in gentle to moderate southerly winds south of the 
monsoon trough, and light to gentle winds to the north of it. 
Cross-equatorial southwest swell is producing moderate seas 
across the offshore forecast waters.

For the forecast, pulsing fresh to strong gap winds across the 
Gulf of Papagayo and the coast of Nicaragua will diminish Mon.
Mainly gentle to moderate breezes will persist elsewhere. 
Moderate seas in cross equatorial swell will subside early next 
week. Abundant deep tropical moisture will persist across the 
region maintaining a high likelihood of additional showers and 
thunderstorms for the next few days.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA....

Fresh to strong winds and rough seas with a component of SW swell are
active north of 05N between 100W and 115W, largely associated
with Invest 91E. Elsewhere weak ridging persists north of 25N, 
supporting gentle to moderate winds west of 120W. Seas to 8 ft
persist from 05N to 15N west of 135W in a combination of moderate
tradewind-induced waves and longer period SW swell. Moderate seas
are noted elsewhere. 

For the forecast, little change is expected through the middle of
week outside of the area near Invest 91 as described in the 
Special Features section. Looking ahead, SW winds will increase 
into the monsoon trough east of 110W later in the week, with 
building seas. This pattern is associated with broad low 
pressure that may develop off Central America and the far eastern
Pacific. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some 
gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression 
could form late next week or next weekend. 

$$
ERA
  

No Storms to Report