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Tropical Atlantic & Pacific Basin Outlooks & Discussions

Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic - Caribbean - Gulf of Mexico
en Español

000
ABNT20 KNHC 251750
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Tue Aug 25 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Central Subtropical Atlantic (AL95):
An area of low pressure located several hundred miles northeast 
of Bermuda is moving north-northeastward at 15 to 20 mph.  The 
associated shower activity remains disorganized and the circulation 
is broad and elongated.  This system could still become a 
short-lived tropical depression or storm tonight before encountering 
increasingly hostile conditions by early Wednesday, likely ending 
its chances for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL96):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure 
centered a few hundred miles south-southeast of the Cabo Verde 
Islands have changed little in organization over the past several 
hours.  However, environmental conditions appear conducive for 
gradual development, and this system is likely to become a tropical 
depression during the next day or two while it moves westward to 
west-northwestward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. 
Environmental conditions could become less conducive for development 
by the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch
  
Tropical Weather Discussion
Atlantic - Caribbean - Gulf of Mexico
549 
AXNT20 KNHC 251546
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Tue Aug 25 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1430 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES... 

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (Invest AL96): An area of low pressure
of 1009 mb is at 12N23W a few hundred miles south-southeast of 
the Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and 
thunderstorms. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection 
is occurring from 09N-14N between 21W-26W. Peak winds are near 25 
kt and seas to 7 ft. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
gradual development, and this system is likely to become a 
tropical depression during the next day or two while it moves 
westward to west-northwestward across the eastern and central 
tropical Atlantic. Environmental conditions could become less 
conducive for development by the weekend. Formation chance through
48 hours is high.

Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at website: 
https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATWOAT.shtml for more details on
this feature.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 23W from 06N-21N,
moving westward around 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated 
strong convection is occurring from 09N-14N between 21W-26W. This 
system is Invest AL96, which is discussed in detail above.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 50W south of 
17N moving westward around 15 kt. No significant deep convection
is occurring in association with this wave.

An eastern Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 68W south of 20N.
It is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. No convection is presently 
occurring with this wave.

A western Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 81W south of 20N 
to Panama moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is occurring south of 16N west of 80W.
 
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Mauritania near
19N16W to the 1009 mb low at 12N23W, then westward to 11N41W. The
ITCZ begins at 11N41W to 10N49W, where it breaks for an tropical
wave, then begins again at 10N51W to coastal Guyana at 08N59W. 
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is occurring 
from 09N-14N between 21W-26W. Scattered moderate convection is
occurring from 08N-12N between 29W-38W and from 08N-11N west of
55W.
 
...GULF OF AMERICA...

A weak 1017 mb high is centered over the central Gulf near 24N87W
contributing toward moderate or weaker winds with seas 1-4 ft this
morning. A 1015 mb at 30N86W along a trough extending from 30N86W
to 28N87W is accompanied by scattered moderate convection north 
of 28N east of 90W.

For the forecast, weak high pressure will remain centered over 
the central Gulf through Wed, with the western Atlantic ridge 
remaining dominate over the basin thereafter. This will maintain 
gentle to locally moderate winds and slight seas into the weekend.
A surface trough will generate locally fresh winds north and west
of the Yucatan Peninsula in the early evenings through the 
period. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between the Bermuda-Azores High north of the
area and the 1008 mb Colombian Low is forcing fresh to strong
trades over the central Caribbean with seas 6-9 ft. Elsewhere
winds are moderate or weaker with seas 2-5 ft. Scattered moderate
and isolated strong convection is occurring south of 16N west of 
80W.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between western Atlantic high
pressure and relatively lower pressure in northern South America
will continue to maintain fresh to strong trades and resultant
rough seas over the south-central Caribbean through the rest of
the week and into the weekend. Winds may be near gale-force in the
Gulf of Venezuela at night starting tonight, and northwest of
Colombia at night starting Wed night. Elsewhere, mainly moderate 
to fresh trades and moderate seas will prevail, aside from light 
to gentle winds and slight seas in the NW part of the basin. Winds
will pulse at times through the week following passages several 
tropical waves that will quickly move west across the basin. Long 
period northeast to east swell from an approaching low pressure 
system, Invest AL96, or possibly a tropical cyclone, may begin to 
impacts to the far eastern portion of the tropical N Atlantic 
zone starting Sat. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section for more details on
low pressure, Invest AL96, and a tropical wave that emerged off 
the coast of Africa yesterday.

A 1030 mb Bermuda-Azores High is centered north of our waters a
42N41W. The pressure gradient between the northward-displaced high
and lower pressure over the ITCZ and monsoon trough is only
forcing gentle to moderate trades with seas 3-7 ft. An upper-level
trough north of the Greater Antilles is forcing scattered moderate
and isolated strong convection north of 22N between 54W-61W. 

For the forecast west of 55W, an elongated trough from north of 
the area to 29N63W will support showers and thunderstorms over the
waters north of 22N and east of 61W through at least tonight. 
High pressure dominates the remainder of the waters with mainly 
moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas north of 23N 
through the remainder of the week. Moderate to at times fresh 
trades, will prevail south of 23N, with slightly higher winds 
pulsing at times as the northern extent of tropical waves most 
westward across the far southern waters into the weekend. Long 
period northeast to east swell from an approaching low pressure 
system, Invest AL96, or possibly a tropical cyclone, may begin to 
impact the far SE portion of the area starting Sat.

$$ 
Landsea
  
Tropical Weather Outlook
Eastern Pacific
en Español

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 251754
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue Aug 25 2026

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Storm Lala, located several hundred miles north of Pearl and Hermes 
Atoll, on Tropical Storm Iselle, located several hundred miles 
west of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula, and on 
Tropical Storm Julio, located well west-southwest of the southern 
tip of Baja California Peninsula.  

Central East Pacific:
A tropical wave located well to the south of southern Mexico is 
producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms. This system 
has become become better organized since yesterday, and 
environmental conditions appear favorable for further development. 
A tropical depression is expected to form in a few days while it 
moves generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, well offshore 
of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Western East Pacific:
A trough of low pressure located well to the east-southeast of the 
Hawaiian Islands is producing some disorganized showers and 
thunderstorms. An area of low pressure is forecast to form along the 
trough during the next couple of days, and environmental conditions 
appear conducive for some gradual development thereafter. A tropical 
depression is likely to form during the latter part of the week or 
early this weekend while the system drifts northeastward, then 
turns to the west-northwest.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Well Offshore of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form well offshore of Central America 
late this week or this weekend. Environmental conditions should
support some gradual development of this system, and a tropical 
depression could form late this weekend or early next week while it 
moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph well offshore 
of southern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

Central Pacific:
An area of low pressure could form well south of the Hawaiian 
Islands late this week.  Some gradual development is possible by 
the weekend into early next week while the system moves slowly to 
the west or west-northwest, well south-southwest of the Hawaiian 
Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake
  
Tropical Weather Discussion
Eastern Pacific
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 251620
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Tue Aug 25 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Iselle is centered near 20.9N 121.1W at 1500 UTC,
moving west-northwest at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central 
pressure is 988 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 60 kt with 
gusts to 75 kt. Peak seas are estimated near 28 ft. Numerous 
moderate to strong convection is noted from 20.5N to 23N between
119W and 121W, while scattered moderate convection extends 
elsewhere from 20N to 24N between 115W and 122W. This current west-
northwest motion is expected to continue for the next couple of
days, while Iselle gradually weakens due to continued westerly
upper level wind shear. Iselle is forecast to become a post- 
tropical remnant low by early Friday. S-SW swell generated by 
Iselle is affecting the offshore waters and west coast of the 
Baja California Peninsula, and will continue through Wed morning 
before subsiding quickly. These swells are likely to cause large 
and powerful surf and life- threatening rip current conditions. 
Please consult products from your local weather office. 
 
Tropical Storm Julio is centered near 18.0N 118.9W at 1500 UTC, 
moving north-northeast at 19 kt. Estimated minimum central 
pressure is 1001 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with 
gusts to 55 kt. Peak seas are estimated at 15 ft within 90 nm
across the SE quadrant. Numerous moderate to strong convection 
is noted from 15N to 17.5N between 118.5W and 121W, while 
scattered moderate isolated strong convection extends elsewhere 
from 10N to 17N between 117W and 124W. Julio has accelerated its
forward motion this morning, and combined with northwesterly
upper level wind shear, the center has become exposed to the
north of the area of strong convection. Julio is expected to move
quickly northward, continue to weaken, and gradually become
absorbed within the outer eastern circulation of Iselle this
evening through tonight.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued
by the National Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest NHC
Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for 
more details on these two systems.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 107W, from 07N to 19N, moving westward 
at 15 kt. Scattered to numerous moderate isolated strong 
convection is noted from 05N to 14N between 100W and 111W.

The tropical wave previously along 110W is gradually merging with
the wave now along 107W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N75W to 08N109W, then resumes 
SW of Julio from 15N122W to low pres near 10N138W 1007 mb to 
beyond 09.5N140W. Aside from the convection related to the 
tropical waves, T.S. Julio and T.S. Iselle described above, 
scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 02.5N to 
08.5N E of 90W, and from 02N to 13N between 90W and 100W.
Scattered to locally numerous moderate to strong convection is
noted from 04N to 12N between 121W and 143W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for more information
about T.S. Iselle. 

Tropical Storm Iselle is moving away from the Mexican offshore
waters, located near 20.9N 121.1W at 8 AM PDT, moving west-northwest
at 9 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt, 
and the minimum central pressure is 988 mb. The proximity of 
Iselle continues to disrupt the ridge to its north, and into the
Baja offshore waters. This is maintaining light to gentle
northerly winds across the Baja California waters and similar N
to NE winds across the SW Mexican offshore waters. Seas are 7 to
11 ft in S-SW swell from Iselle across the Baja Sur waters, and 5
to 7 ft across the Baja Norte waters. Seas are 4 to 5 ft
elsewhere across the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters W
of Puerto Angel. Winds and seas are gradually diminishing across
the Revillagigedo Islands and area waters as Iselle gradually 
moves away from that area, as seas remain around 12 ft. Gentle to
moderate NW to W gap winds prevail across central and southern 
portions of the Gulf of California. A large cluster of strong 
thunderstorms covers much of the area across the entrance to the 
Gulf to Las Tres Marias, and are supported by an upper level low 
pressure system. This activity is shifting northward. Otherwise, 
fresh to strong N to NE gap winds persist across the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec and downwind to about 14N with 6 to 8 ft seas.

For the forecast, Iselle will continue to move west-northwestward
and away from the area waters, while gradually weakening,
reaching near 21.4N 122.5W this evening, and 22.0N 124.1W Wed
morning. Large S-SW swell from Iselle will continue to move 
through the Baja waters today through early Wed before quickly 
subsiding. Elsewhere, fresh northerly gap winds will continue to 
pulse to strong speeds across Tehuantepec region during the 
overnight and early morning hours through the upcoming weekend, 
with seas occasionally building to 8-9 ft. Looking ahead, another
tropical wave and developing low pressure area will follow a
similar trajectory as Iselle, Thu through the weekend, and impact
the outer offshore waters near the Revillagigedo Islands within
increasing winds and seas.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh NE to E gap winds continue across the Papagayo
region and downwind to near 90W, where seas are 6 to 8 ft. 
Moderate southerly winds and moderate seas are S of 03N and between
the Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. Moderate or weaker winds 
are found elsewhere, with slight to moderate seas in SW swell.
Scattered to numerous moderate to strong thunderstorms continue
across the waters from 02.5N to 08.5N between Colombia and 90W,
including the entrance to the Gulf of Panama, and nearshore
waters of western Panama, and Cost Rica.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE to E gap winds will 
pulse to strong speeds over the Papagayo region each night 
through Sat night building seas to around 8 ft. Moderate to 
fresh winds extending well downwind of Papagayo will impact the 
outer offshore waters of El Salvador and Guatemala through the 
end of the week. South of the monsoon trough, moderate to locally
fresh S winds will diminish to gentle to moderate speeds Tue 
night and then prevail through the remainder forecast period. 
Otherwise, cross- equatorial SW swell will move into the area 
waters Thu night through Fri. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see the Special Features section for more information about
T.S. Iselle and T.S. Julio. 

High pressure of 1020 mb located near 35N130W extends a broad 
ridge south and southeastward to approximately 118W, and drapes 
across Iselle. The pressure gradient between these features and 
low pressure associated with the monsoon trough is supporting 
moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds from 10N to 25N and W of 
130W per recent satellite scatterometer data. Moderate to fresh 
SW to W winds are south of the monsoon W of 131W while moderate 
to fresh E winds accompany the tropical wave near 107W. South of 
the monsoon trough and between 115W and 125W, fresh S-SW winds 
are feeding into Julio and the eastern side of Iselle. 
Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker and seas moderate.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Julio will move northward,
weaken and gradually become absorbed in the larger circulation of
Iselle, as Iselle shifts west-northwestward between 20N and 25N,
before dissipating Fri. A tropical wave located near 107W, well 
to the SW of SW Mexico, is producing a large area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear 
favorable for development of this system, and a tropical 
depression is expected to form by the end of the week while it 
moves generally west- northwestward at 10 to 15 kt, well offshore
of Mexico. This system has a low chance for tropical cyclone 
formation within the next two days and high chance of development
through 7 days.

Looking ahead, an area of low pressure could form well offshore 
of Central America late this week or this weekend. Environmental 
conditions could support some gradual development of this system,
and a tropical depression could form late this weekend or early 
next week while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 
15 mph well offshore of southern Mexico. This system has a low 
chance for tropical cyclone formation within the next two days 
and a medium chance of development through 7 days.

$$
Stripling
  
Tropical Weather Discussion
Central Pacific

en Español

000
ACPN50 PHFO 251754
TWOCP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM HST Tue Aug 25 2026

For the central North Pacific...between 140W and 180W:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Lala, located several hundred miles north of Pearl and Hermes
Atoll, on Tropical Storm Iselle, located several hundred miles
west of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula, and on
Tropical Storm Julio, located well west-southwest of the southern
tip of Baja California Peninsula.

Western East Pacific:
A trough of low pressure located well to the east-southeast of the
Hawaiian Islands is producing some disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. An area of low pressure is forecast to form along the
trough during the next couple of days, and environmental conditions
appear conducive for some gradual development thereafter. A tropical
depression is likely to form during the latter part of the week or
early this weekend while the system drifts northeastward, then
turns to the west-northwest.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Central Pacific:
An area of low pressure could form well south of the Hawaiian
Islands late this week.  Some gradual development is possible by
the weekend into early next week while the system moves slowly to
the west or west-northwest, well south-southwest of the Hawaiian
Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake
NNNN



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