en Español

000
ABNT20 KNHC 161116
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Jul 16 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located 
southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands remain disorganized. Some slow 
development is possible during the next day or two while the system 
moves generally west-northwestward at about 10 mph. By this 
weekend, the system is forecast to move into a less conducive 
environment, and further development is not expected.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

Northeastern Gulf of America and Offshore of the Southeastern U.S.:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form this weekend over the 
northeastern Gulf of America. Some gradual development of this 
system is possible while it moves slowly northeastward over the 
northeastern Gulf and near the coast of the southeastern United 
States early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven
  

000
AXNT20 KNHC 160954
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Thu Jul 16 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0930 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Caribbean Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between high 
pressure north of the basin and the Colombian low will support
fresh to strong NE-E winds in the south-central Caribbean during
the next several days. Winds will pulse to gale-force across the 
waters N of Colombia each night through Sat night. Rough to very 
rough seas will prevail with these winds.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST 
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed along 21W, south of
16N, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is 
present from 08N to 13N and east of 23W and remains disorganized.
Some slow development is possible during the next couple of days 
while the system moves generally west-northwestward at about 10 
mph. By this weekend, the system is forecast to move into a less 
conducive environment, and further development is not expected. 
The disturbance has a low chance of development over the next 7 
days.

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 32W, south of 18N, 
moving westward at 15 kt. No significant convection is noted with
this wave at this time.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Africa near 21N17W and continues southwestward to a 1013 mb low 
pres near 12N21W to 09N34W. The ITCZ extends from 09N34W to 
07N58W. Scattered moderate convection is noted S of the monsoon
trough between 23W-29W, and along the ITCZ between 46W-52W. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A 1022 mb high pressure system positioned over the northern Gulf 
near 29N88W. The high supports moderate to fresh E-SE winds 
across much of the western and SE Gulf. Seas are 3-5 ft in these 
waters. In the rest of the basin, light to gentle winds and slight
seas prevail. A few showers are present north of Yucatan and in 
the eastern Bay of Campeche, while drier conditions are noted in 
the remainder of the Gulf.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will pulse offshore the 
Yucatan Peninsula each night. Gentle to moderate winds, and slight
to moderate seas, will prevail elsewhere. 

Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is forecast to form this
weekend over the northeastern Gulf of America. Some gradual 
development of this system is possible while it moves slowly 
northeastward over the northeastern Gulf and near the coast of the
southeastern United States early next week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the south-central Caribbean offshore
of Colombia. Please, refer to the Special Features section for 
more details.

The Atlantic subtropical ridge centered north of the Caribbean
forces strong to gale easterly trade winds across the central 
Caribbean, with the strongest winds occurring off Colombia and in 
the Gulf of Venezuela. Rough to very rough seas are found in these
waters. Fresh NE winds and moderate seas are noted in the 
Windward Passage and Gulf of Honduras. Meanwhile, moderate to 
fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are present in the eastern 
Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to 
moderate seas are prevalent. 

A diffluent pattern aloft combined with abundant tropical moisture
is generating a large area of showers and thunderstorms over the
NW Caribbean and the Yucatan Peninsula, particularly in the Gulf
of Honduras. Gusty winds, frequent lightning, and higher seas are
likely with this convective activity.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure north of
the basin and the Colombian low will support pulsing NE winds to
gale-force across the waters N of Colombia each night through Sat
night. Otherwise, strong to near-gale trade winds and rough seas
will prevail across the central Caribbean into early next week. 
East winds will pulse fresh to strong each evening in the Gulf of
Honduras and Windward Passage. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough along 76W and north of 24W is producing a
scattered showers west of 72W and north of 22N. The tropical 
Atlantic is under the influence of broad high pressure. Moderate 
to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are occurring south of 
the SE Bahamas and north of Haiti and eastern Cuba. Moderate 
easterly winds and moderate seas are found south of 22N and 
between Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Meanwhile, in the far 
eastern Atlantic, fresh to strong and seas of 5-8 ft are noted 
north of the monsoon trough and east of 23W. Fresh to strong SW 
winds and seas of 5-8 ft are evident south of the monsoon trough 
and east of 23W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate 
seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the subtropical ridge will remain
dominant through the forecast period. The weather pattern will 
support moderate to fresh trades south of 25N, with gentle winds 
to the north. Pulsing strong winds are expected each night 
offshore Hispaniola and in the Windward Passage. 

$$
ERA
  

en Español

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 161114
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Thu Jul 16 2026

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Storm Elida, located several hundred miles southwest of the southern 
tip of the Baja California Peninsula. 

Well Southwest of the Hawaiian Islands (CP90):
A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest 
of the Hawaiian Islands and around 400 miles southeast of Johnston 
Atoll is producing limited shower and thunderstorm activity. 
Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development 
over the next day or so, and a tropical depression could still form 
by Friday as the system moves slowly northwestward toward the 
vicinity of Johnston Atoll. By this weekend, this system is 
expected to move into unfavorable environmental conditions, likely 
ending its opportunity to develop.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Offshore of Southern and Southwestern Mexico:
A tropical wave located several hundred miles south of the coast of 
southern Mexico is producing a large area of disorganized showers 
and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for 
gradual development of this system thereafter, and a tropical 
depression is likely to form by this weekend into early next week 
while it moves generally west-northwestward well offshore of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high..90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kelly
  

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 160843
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Thu Jul 16 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0730 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Elida is centered near 15.6N 116.5W at 16/0900
UTC, moving west at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is
997 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60
kt. Peak seas are currently around 18 ft or 5.5 m, while a 0330
UTC altimeter pass helped determine the radii of 4 m seas. 
Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 60 nm in
the east semicircle and 30 nm in the west semicircle, with
numerous moderate isolated strong elsewhere from 11N to 19N
between 110W and 120W, and also from 05N to 11N between 111W and
124W. Elida is moving toward the west, and a turn toward the 
west-northwest is expected tonight, followed by a northwestward 
motion beginning Fri and continuing through the weekend. 
Additional strengthening is forecast during the next couple of 
days, and Elida is expected to become a hurricane tonight or 
early Fri before reaching its peak intensity on Fri. Please read
the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane 
Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml
and the latest Elida NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory 
at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 98.5W, north of 03N to across southern 
Mexico over portions of western Oaxaca to eastern Guerrero, 
moving westward at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated 
strong convection is noted from 03N to 12N between 89W and 102W,
and from 14N to 17N between 98W and 102W.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N75W to 10N86.5W to 07N97W to
13.5N112W, then resumes southwest of Elida from 13N119W to low
pressure, 1008 mb, near 09N138W to 09N140W. Other than the 
convection mentioned with Elida and the tropical wave above, 
scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 03N
to 05N between 78W and 88W, from 05N to 10N between 103W and
107W, and from 05.5N to 13.5N between 125.5W and 140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on Tropical
Storm Elida, centered about 539 nautical miles southwest of the 
southern tip of Baja California.

Fresh to strong winds and rough seas associated with the periphery
of Tropical Storm Elida are continuing to impact the 
Revillagigedo Islands. Seas near and south-southwest of the 
islands are 8 to 14 ft. Meanwhile, fresh to strong northerly 
winds are across the Tehuantepec region per a recent ASCAT-C
scatterometer pass, with seas of 6 to 8 ft. A broad ridge 
prevails elsewhere offshore of Baja California, while a NW to SE
surface trough is analyzed across the Baja California Peninsula.
This pattern is supporting mainly gentle NW to N winds and 3 to 
7 ft seas across the Baja offshore waters away from Elida. In the
Gulf of California, gentle to moderate SE to S winds and seas of
1 to 3 ft prevail. An upper-level low spinning over Baja 
California Sur is generating some cloudiness and a few showers 
and thunderstorms across parts of the Baja California Peninsula
and Gulf of California waters. Additional convection is present 
off southern Mexico near a tropical wave as described above.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Elida will weaken to a tropical 
storm over 24.3N 127.1W early Mon. Otherwise, a broad ridge 
will continue to dominate the offshore forecast waters of Baja 
California through the end of the week, allowing for gentle to 
moderate NW to N winds to continue along with moderate seas in 
mixed swell, higher well offshore due to Elida. In the Gulf of 
California, moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are 
expected to pulse out of the SW to W through gaps across 
portions of the Gulf through at least Fri, locally strong in the 
northern Gulf Fri night. Fresh to strong northerly winds will 
pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through at least the upcoming 
weekend, strongest during the late night and early morning hours,
with locally rough seas at times.

Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is expected to form later
this week several hundred miles south of the coast of southern 
Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual 
development of this system thereafter, and a tropical depression 
is likely to form by this weekend into early next week while it 
moves generally west-northwestward well offshore of 
Mexico. Increasing winds and building seas will be possible 
again in and around the Revillagigedo Islands late in the weekend
into early next week.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong NE to E winds continue across the Papagayo region
and downwind to near 89W, with moderate to fresh easterly winds 
elsewhere from 09N to 12N, and near the Gulf of Fonseca. Seas 
are 5 to 8 ft downstream of Papagayo. Moderate to fresh 
northerly winds are in the Gulf of Panama per a recent OSCAT
scatterometer pass. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas, 
primarily in SW swell, dominate the remainder of the offshore 
waters, except slight seas in the immediate lee of the Galapagos
Islands and nearshore western Colombia.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds and moderate to 
rough seas will prevail across the Papagayo region, peaking at 
night through Sun night, possibly increasing to near gale-force 
early next week, with moderate to fresh NE winds pulsing near the
Gulf of Fonseca. Moderate to fresh northerly winds will pulse 
across the Gulf of Panama into early morning today, and again 
tonight. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas in SW swell 
are expected elsewhere, except in the immediate lee of the 
Galapagos Islands and nearshore western Colombia where slight 
seas are forecast. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on Tropical
Storm Elida, centered about 539 nautical miles southwest of the 
southern tip of Baja California.

A ridge dominates the waters north of 09N/10N and the monsoon
trough, and to the west of 120W, or ahead of Tropical Storm 
Elida. The pressure gradient between the ridge and Elida supports
moderate to fresh N to NE winds, north of 12N, and 4 to 7 ft 
seas in mixed swells. A growing band of fresh to strong SW winds 
and 7 to 9 ft seas are found south of the monsoon trough and 
wrapping into the circulation of Elida, from roughly 05N to 10N 
between 112W and 133W. Moderate to fresh winds are found south 
of 04N between 90W and 115W, along with 6 to 7 ft seas. Mainly 
moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail across the 
remainder of the open waters.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Elida will weaken to a tropical 
storm over 24.3N 127.1W early Mon. Otherwise, a broad ridge 
will continue to dominate the offshore forecast waters of Baja 
California through the end of the week, allowing for gentle to 
moderate NW to N winds to continue along with moderate seas in 
mixed swell, higher well offshore due to Elida. Looking ahead, 
an area of low pressure is expected to form later this week 
several hundred miles south of the coast of southern Mexico. 
Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development
of this system thereafter, and a tropical depression is likely 
to form by this weekend into early next week while it moves 
generally west-northwestward well offshore of Mexico. Increasing 
winds and building seas will be possible again in and around the 
Revillagigedo Islands late in the weekend into early next week.
Seas may build to rough in new southerly swell mixed with distant
swells from Elida south of the Equator and west of 100W by the
start of the upcoming weekend, spreading north-northwestard into
early next week. Otherwise, little change is forecast elsewhere.

$$
Lewitsky
  

en Español

000
ACPN50 PHFO 161114
TWOCP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM HST Thu Jul 16 2026

For the central North Pacific...between 140W and 180W:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Elida, located several hundred miles southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California Peninsula.

Well Southwest of the Hawaiian Islands (CP90):
A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest
of the Hawaiian Islands and around 400 miles southeast of Johnston
Atoll is producing limited shower and thunderstorm activity.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development
over the next day or so, and a tropical depression could still form
by Friday as the system moves slowly northwestward toward the
vicinity of Johnston Atoll. By this weekend, this system is
expected to move into unfavorable environmental conditions, likely
ending its opportunity to develop.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kelly
NNNN