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Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
915 AM EDT Tue Mar 18 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on May 
15, 2025.  During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks 
will be issued as conditions warrant.

$$
Forecaster Hagen
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445 
AXNT20 KNHC 180000
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Fri Apr 18 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near the coast of 
Gambia at 13N17W and continues southwestward to 05N20W, where 
it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 01N30W and to the 
coast of Brazil near 02N51W. Scattered moderate convection is 
within 120 nm north of the ITCZ between 40W and 51W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

High pressure stretches from Mid-Atlantic region southwestward
to over the basin. The gradient between the high pressure and low 
pressure in the Plains is allowing for fresh to strong southerly
winds to exist in the far western Gulf. Seas are 5 to 7 ft with
these winds. Fresh wind are elsewhere, except for moderate winds 
in the north-central section, and light and variable winds in 
the NE Gulf. Seas are 4 to 6 ft elsewhere except 2 to 4 ft in the
north-central and NE Gulf sections. No significant deep 
convection is occurring this evening.

For the forecast, fresh to strong northeast winds will pulse 
offshore of the Yucatan Peninsula and in the eastern Bay of 
Campeche through this weekend as a trough develops daily and 
moves westward. Elsewhere, fresh to locally strong SE winds will 
develop west of 90W tonight as a low pressure system strengthens 
in the Plains area. By Fri, fresh to locally strong SE winds are 
expected across much of the basin, including through the Florida 
Straits, as the pressure gradient strengthens between the 
aforementioned low and building high pressure over the western 
Atlantic. Seas will slowly build through this weekend, with 
rough seas possible near the strong winds by early Sat. Looking 
ahead, winds and seas will slowly diminish next week. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA... 

A moderate pressure gradient between high pressure off the
southeastern United States and low pressure of 1007 mb in
northwest Colombian Low is allowing for fresh to strong 
trades to be in the south-central Caribbean. Gentle to 
moderate trades are elsewhere. Seas are 6 to 9 ft in northeast 
to east swell in the southwestern Caribbean and 3 to 6 ft
elsewhere, except 5 to 7 ft in the west-central section. 
Scattered showers are possible north of 15N between 65W and 
68W, otherwise no significant deep convection is occurring over 
the Caribbean this evening.

For the forecast, strong high pressure north of the basin will 
support fresh to strong northeast winds across the central and 
western Caribbean tonight into early next week, including the 
Windward Passage and south of Cuba. Near-gale force winds may 
pulse off Colombia during the overnight hours, accompanied by 
rough seas. Large northerly swell will impact the Mona and 
Anegada passages in the northeastern Caribbean by late Sun. 
Looking ahead, winds and seas are expected to diminish starting 
Tue as the high pressure north of the area weakens. The 
weather pattern is expected to become unstable in the
northeastern Caribbean through the weekend as troughing sets 
up over that part of the area and while at the same time 
low-level convergence increases. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N61W to 29N65W, where it becomes 
stationary to 27N70W and to the central Bahamas. Satellite 
imagery shows scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms north 
of 29N between the front and a trough that extends from
31N55W southwestward to 26N62W and to near 23N68W. Scattered 
showers and thunderstorms are seen within about 180 nm southeast
of the trough from 23N to 27N. Elsewhere, a moderate pressure 
gradient between high pressure of 1029 mb that is well north 
of the area at 34N40W and relatively lower pressure to the 
south is generally inducing moderate to fresh trades south of 
28N and east of 60W. Fresh to strong northeast winds are 
near the Canary Islands and Western Sahara along with seas 
of 8 to 10 ft. Seas are about 5 to 8 ft in mixed swell elsewhere
across the tropical N Atlantic.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned cold front 
will weaken as it slowly drifts southward through Fri as high
pressure builds in its wake. The stationary portion will weaken 
and dissipate by Fri night. A tightening pressure gradient 
between these features will support an expansive area of strong 
northeast to east winds and rough seas are expected Sat into Sun 
through the Bahamas and near the Greater Antilles. Winds and seas
will slowly diminish west of 65W early next week. Looking ahead,
a complex low pressure system may develop in the central 
Atlantic this weekend, producing fresh to strong northeast winds
and rough seas surrounding the low, east of 65W. 

$$
Aguirre
  

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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1000 PM PST Sat Nov 30 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

This is the last regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlook of 
the 2024 eastern North Pacific Hurricane Season.  Routine issuance 
of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on May 15, 2025. During 
the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as 
conditions warrant.

$$
Forecaster Beven

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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 172205
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Thu Apr 17 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2145 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A trough axis extends from low pressure in northwest Colombia to 
09N84W to 06N90W to 06N97W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 
07N110W to 08N115W to 06N120W to 06N127W. Scattered moderate to 
strong convection is seen from 03N to 07N between 88W-92W, and 
within 180 nm south of the trough between 85W-88W. Scattered 
moderate to isolated strong convection is present from 02N 
to 07N between 107W-111W, within 120 nm south of the ITCZ between
119W-124W and within 60 nm north of the ITCZ between 111W-118W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Latest scatterometer satellite data indicates that north to 
northeast winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region have diminished
to 20-25 kt. Seas in the Gulf region have lowered to around  
6 ft. Deep-layer low pressure offshore of southern California
has induced a surface trough that extends from near southern 
California southwestward to near 29N127W. This trough is 
obstructing the eastern periphery of a broad area of high 
pressure that is present west of Baja California. The associated 
pressure gradient between the high pressure and relatively lower 
pressure across the Gulf of California is supporting mostly west 
to northwest gentle winds across the waters of Baja Norte, and 
moderate to locally fresh northwest to north winds across the 
Baja waters south of Punta Eugenia, becoming north to northeast 
near the Revillagigedo Islands. Seas are 5 to 7 ft in northwest 
swell north of Punta Eugenia and mostly 4 to 6 ft south to the 
Revillagigedo Islands. Elsewhere over the Pacific offshore 
waters, winds are moderate or weaker with seas of 4-5 ft in mixed
northwest and south swell. 

In the Gulf of California, winds in the northern section of the
Gulf have become fresh southwest winds with seas of 5 to 7 ft.
Gentle to moderate northwest to north winds are over the central
section while gentle northwest winds are over the southern
section. Seas are 3 to 4 ft in the central section and 2 to 3 ft
in the southern section. 

For the forecast, fresh to near gale southwest to west gap winds
will develop in the northern Gulf of California tonight while 
fresh to locally strong west gap winds develop across central 
portions of the Gulf. Winds across the Mexican Offshore zones 
will remain moderate or weaker north of Punta Eugenia, and 
moderate to fresh off Baja California Sur through Sat night, then
become moderate to locally fresh north of 20N Sun afternoon 
through Mon. Gentle to moderate northwest winds are expected 
in the southern section of the Gulf through Sun along with seas 
of 2 to 4 ft.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

High pressure across the central Atlantic and eastern Gulf of 
America extending into the northwestern Caribbean is inducing 
gap winds across the Pacific waters of Central America, and fresh
to near gale northeast to east gap winds across the Papagayo 
region as highlighted in the latest scatterometer data pass 
across that region. Seas are currently 6 to 8 ft there. 
Northeast winds across the southwestern Caribbean are producing 
fresh north winds in the he Gulf of Panama extending south
to near 04N as noted in the latest scatterometer data pass 
over the Gulf. Seas with these winds are 4 to 6 ft. Elsewhere, 
between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands, winds are gentle to 
moderate with 4 to 6 ft seas in S swell.

The Santa Maria Volcano located in southwestern Guatemala near 
14.8N91.6W is presently undergoing continuous volcanic ash 
emissions. The volcanic ash near the volcano is moving to 
southwest. Latest GOES-E satellite imagery shows resultant hazy 
skies along the coast of Guatemala, with similar conditions just 
offshore the coast. Reduced visibility is possible near the 
coast. Mariners are encouraged to be aware of the latest updates 
on the status of the volcano. 

satellite imagery shows scattered showers and thunderstorms over 
the waters west of Colombia from 03N to 05N between 82W and 85W.
Mostly scattered showers are over the waters west of Ecuador from
03.4S to 01S and between 82W and 84W.

For the forecast, high pressure over the eastern Gulf of America
that extends into the northwestern Caribbean will shift 
gradually eastward to the Atlantic waters between Cape Hatteras 
and Bermuda during the next several days to support fresh to 
strong northeast to east gap winds in the Papagayo region, 
pulsing to near gale tonight and Fri night, then diminish 
slightly through Mon night. The same high pressure will force 
moderate to fresh north winds in he Gulf of Panama to near 5N 
through Sat night. Locally strong north to northeast winds are 
expected in the Gulf of Panama tonight and Fri night. Moderate 
southwest swell will propagate into the regional waters early 
next week.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA....

Broad high pressure is the main feature controlling the weather 
pattern west of about 130W. A related ridge extends southward,
then weakly eastward over the subtropical waters west of the 
Baja California Sur waters, to the south of a surface trough 
extending from offshore of southern California to near 29N127W. 
A trough is located just west of the ITCZ from 02N129W to 
08N127W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is 
noted within 120 nm east and 60 nm west of the trough. The 
gradient related to the synoptic pattern in place continues to 
produce moderate to locally fresh northeast trades between the 
ITCZ and 21N and west of about 110W as seen in scatterometer 
satellite data passes over those portions of the ocean. Seas with
these trades are in the range of 7 to 8 ft due to north swell.
The scatterometer data indicates gentle to moderate north to
northeast winds north of 21N. Latest altimeter satellite data 
passes show seas of 5 to 7 ft in mixed northeast and northeast 
swell with these winds. Gentle to moderate east to southeast 
winds are south of the ITCZ along with seas of 5 to 8 ft in mixed
north and east swell. Scattered moderate isolated strong 
convection is occurring near the ITCZ north to around 09N and 
between 112W and 125W.

For the forecast, little change in the winds across the open 
waters is expected for the next several days, except for slightly
stronger trades occurring W of 120W over the weekend. The 
persistence of these winds will lead to building seas of 8 to 9 
ft, subsiding Mon. Otherwise, new moderate northerly swell is 
forecast to reach the far northern waters west of the Baja 
California Peninsula Mon, building seas to around 8 ft.

$$
Aguirre
  

No Storms to Report