000
AXNT20 KNHC 050931
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Fri Jun 5 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0930 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gale Warning East of 35W: The pressure gradient between a 1028 mb  
high pressure system centered southwest of the Azores near 34N36W 
and lower pressures in northwest Africa supports strong to gale- 
force northerly winds in the marine zone of Agadir. Scatterometer
data confirmed the presence of these wind speeds off the coast of
Morocco. Gale-force winds are expected to occur through 05/0000 
UTC, with severe gusts. These winds will create rough seas of 10 
ft and higher. Similar conditions will continue into the weekend.
For more details, refer to the Meteo-France High Seas Forecast 
listed on their website https://wwmiws.wmo.int.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 20W, south of 13N, moving west at 10 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is present from 05N to 08N between 
18W and 25W.

A tropical wave is along 45W, south of 12N, moving westward at 
15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is 
evident from 04N to 09N between 40W and 50W, more concentrated on
the east side of the wave axis. Moderate to fresh winds are
associated with the wave. 

Another tropical wave is along 57W, south of 16N, moving westward
at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is near the wave axis S of
11N. This tropical wave will move across the Windward Islands
tonight into Sat increasing the likelihood of showers.

A tropical wave is over the eastern caribbean along 70W, south of
15N, moving westward at 15 kt. Convection is limited over the 
Caribbean waters. Currently, the wave appears to enhance convection
over Lake Maracaibo in western Venezuela. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania
near 18N16W and continues southwestward to 06N27W. The ITCZ extends
from 06N27W to 04N40W to the coast of Brazil near 00N50W. The convection
in this area is mainly associated with the tropical waves previously
mentioned. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Recent satellite derived wind data indicate fresh to strong E to
SE winds over the eastern Gulf and north of a stationary front 
that extends across western Cuba into the SE Gulf to near 23N87W. 
Similar wind speeds are also noted over the eastern Bay of 
Campeche, and in the NW Gulf north of 28N between 92W and 95W.
Moderate to rough seas are within the strongest winds, except in 
the Bay of Campeche where slight to moderate seas are noted. 
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight seas prevail. 
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are near the frontal boundary.

For the forecast, the fresh to strong E to SE winds over the 
eastern Gulf will diminish to gentle to moderate speeds later 
today as the Atlantic ridge builds westward across the Gulf 
region. The exception will be off the Yucatan Peninsula, where a 
diurnal trough will allow moderate winds to pulse to fresh, 
occasionally strong, during the evenings. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The Atlantic ridge, anchored by a 1028 mb high pressure located 
near 34N36W, reaches the NE Caribbean. The ridge, combined with 
the Colombian low, supports fresh to strong easterly trade winds 
and moderate seas in the south-central Caribbean. Meanwhile, a 
stationary front extends across western Cuba and the SE Gulf of 
America. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted near the 
front. Farther south, fresh to strong easterly winds and moderate 
to rough seas are observed in the Gulf of Honduras likely due to 
the pressure gradient between high pressure over the SE of the 
United States and a broad are of low pressure in the eastern 
Pacific, offshore of Central America. Elsewhere, moderate or 
lighter winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh E to SE trade winds and 
moderate seas will persist across the Caribbean into Sat as the 
Atlantic ridge north of the area weakens and shifts eastward. The 
exception will be fresh to strong pulses in the Gulf of Honduras 
tonight. Then, winds will begin to increase again over the central
Caribbean by Sat night, and over the NW part of the basin early 
next week as the Atlantic ridge rebuilds north of area.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section about a Gale Warning in
the Meteo-France forecast region. 

A frontal boundary extends from near Bermuda to the central Bahamas
and western Cuba. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms 
are along the front, particularly north of 27N. High pressure
located over the SE of the United States follows this system. The
remainder of the Atlantic forecast area is dominated by a broad 
subtropical ridge, supporting a gentle to moderate anticyclonic
flow N of 20N E of front to about 30W. Fresh to strong N to NE 
winds and rough seas are found north of 18N and east of 30W.
Moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas are S of 20N between
the coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles. 

For the forecast west of 55W, the front will dissipate late today
into Sat, as high pressure builds across the area. This pattern 
will allow gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas into early 
next week. 

$$
GR
  

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 051535
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Fri Jun 5 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Amanda is centered near 13.3N 133.7W at 1500 UTC,
moving west at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 
mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. 
Peak seas are currently around 4 m, or 13 ft, within 45 nm across
the NW semicircle. Scattered to numerous moderate isolated 
strong convection is noted within 120 nm across the W semicircle.
Additional scattered moderate convection is elsewhere within 210
nm in the NE quadrant. Amanda is expected to continue moving
westward this morning, followed by a southwestward motion this
afternoon through Sat. Little change in strength is forecast this
afternoon, but gradual weakening is likely to begin by tonight 
and continue through the weekend. Amanda is forecast to 
degenerate into a remnant low on Sun. Please read the latest 
HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at 
website
- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest 
Amanda NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N73W to 11.5N84W to 09.5N94W 
to low pressure near 14N104W 1010 mb to 09.5N121W to 11N129W, 
then resumes SSW of Tropical Storm Amanda near 08.5N134W to 
07N140W. Scattered to numerous moderate isolated strong 
convection is noted from 01N to 16N E of 98W, and from 08N to 
16N between 98W and 116W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted from 04.5N to 12.5N between 116W and 140W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A ridge, anchored by a 1029 mb high pressure center located near
35N143W, extends southeastward and into the Baja California 
waters to near the Revillagigedo Islands. This pattern is 
producing gentle to moderate NW winds across the Baja waters, 
and moderate to locally fresh NW to N winds across the Baja Sur 
waters to the Revillagigedo Islands. Seas across these waters are
5 to 7 ft in mixed NW and SW swell, except 7 to 9 ft to the W
through N of Isla Guadalupe in fresh N-NW swell. Inside the Gulf
of California, light S to SW winds generally prevail, except 
moderate N of 30N, with seas of 1 to 3 ft across the Gulf, except
seas of 4 to 6 ft in SW swell near the entrance. Across the 
remainder of the Mexican offshore waters, light to gentle winds 
dominate, with seas of 6 to 8 ft, primarily in SW swell. 
Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue across the near and
offshore waters between Chiapas and Oaxaca, and along the coast 
of Michoacan as described above.

For the forecast, high pressure well NW of the area extending a 
broad ridge into the Baja waters will weaken slightly through 
early next week as the high drifts to the W. This pattern will 
support gentle to moderate NW to N winds through tonight, then 
diminish slightly through Sun, except persisting to fresh near 
Cabo San Lucas, pulsing to strong Sun night into early next week.
Rough seas in building NW swell, will propagate across the outer
offshore waters N of Punta Eugenia through early next week. 
Southerly winds may pulse to fresh to strong in the Gulf of 
California N of 30N Sat night and Sun night. Low pressure 
located well offshore of southwestern Mexico is producing a large
area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental 
conditions appear conducive for development of this system, and a
tropical depression is likely to form during the next several 
days while it moves slowly northeastward near the coast of 
southern Mexico. Currently, this system has a high chance of
medium chance of tropical cyclone formation within 48 hours and a
high chance through 7 days.

....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

A weak surface pressure pattern continues N of the region, across
the Gulf of America and western Caribbean. This pattern is 
yielding light to gentle winds over the Central American offshore
waters, except locally moderate gap winds offshore Nicaragua, 
while gentle to moderate SSE winds are from offshore Ecuador to 
the Galapagos Islands. Seas of 5 to 8 ft in building SW swell 
prevail across the area waters, except 7 to 9 ft from offshore 
Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands. Scattered showers and 
thunderstorms remain active offshore of much of the area waters 
near the monsoon trough as described above, with higher winds and
seas likely near this activity.

For the forecast, SW swell will continue to propagate across the
regional waters, maintaining moderate to rough seas through Sat
morning, with highest seas around 8 ft expected between Ecuador
and the Galapagos Islands. New larger SW swell is expected to 
arrive by Sat night, propagating NE into early next week and 
building seas to 7 to 10 ft, at a minimum. Otherwise, a trough 
of low pressure offshore of Central America is producing some 
disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Environmental 
conditions appear conducive for development of this system, and a
tropical depression could form during the next several days 
while it moves slowly northward toward the coast of Central
America. Regardless of development, monsoonal SW to W winds will
increase south of the monsoon trough over the weekend, likely
leading to heavy rainfall across portions of Nicaragua, El 
Salvador, and Guatemala. Currently, this system has a medium 
chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next 7 days. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see the Special Features section for information on Tropical
Storm Amanda located well SW of Baja California Sur.

High pressure at 1029 mb near 35N143W dominates the waters N of 
15N and W of 110W, extending southeastward to the Revillagigedo 
Islands. The pressure gradient between the ridge and T.S. Amanda 
is promoting moderate to fresh NE to E winds across the waters N 
of 13N and W of 130W. Seas over these waters and elsewhere N of 
10N are in the 7 to 10 ft range in a mix of trade wind waves and
NW to N swell.Moderate to fresh N to NE winds prevail N of 20N
between 120W and 130W, where seas are 6 to 9 ft in N to NE swell. 
Mainly gentle winds are S of the monsoon trough and W of 120W, 
with moderate to locally fresh winds S of the monsoon trough and 
E of 120W. Seas are 5 to 7 ft S of 10N and W of 115W, and 7 to 9
ft in mainly S-SW swell elsewhere.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Amanda will move to 13.1N 
134.3W late this afternoon, reach near 12.3N 135.3W late Sat 
afternoon, weaken to a 30 kt remnant low near 11.4N 136.4W late 
Sun afternoon, and maintain that intensity, reaching near 11.1N 
137.2W Mon morning. Meanwhile, the high pressure NW of the area 
will drift W and weaken slightly across the area waters today 
through the weekend as Tropical Storm Amanda tracks W then SW over
the western portion of the area, resulting in gradually 
diminishing winds across the trade wind zone. Little change is 
expected elsewhere through Sat morning, before large S to SW 
reaches the equator and moves through the regional waters through
early next week, reaching to 20N Sun night through Mon. Meanwhile,
northerly swell in the N-central waters with seas of 7 to 10 ft 
will linger for the next several days.

Looking ahead, monsoonal southerly winds are forecast to increase
to at least fresh to strong E of 110W this weekend into early
next week with possible tropical cyclone formation off both
southern Mexico and off portions of Central America.

$$
Stripling
  

No Storms to Report