000
AXNT20 KNHC 152350
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Sat May 16 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2230 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 35W, from 12N southward,
and moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Widely scattered moderate
convection is noted ahead of the wave from 02N to 04N between 36W
and 38W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 57W, from 13N southward
into western Suriname, and moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. 
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen across 
Guyana and Suriname.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near Saloum Delta area in
Senegal, then curves southwestward to 03N26W. An ITCZ continues 
from 03N26W to 01N32W, then westward from 00N36W to near the
Amazon River Delta, Brazil. Numerous moderate to scattered strong
convection is present near and south of the monsoon trough from  
02N to 07N and east of 24W. Widely scattered moderate convection
is seen up to 150 nm along either side of the ITCZ.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A surface ridge reaches southwestward from a 1018 mb high near 
the Florida Big Bend area to south of Tampico, Mexico. Light to 
gentle winds and seas at 1 to 2 ft are present the eastern half of
the Gulf. Moderate to fresh NE to SE winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are
noted off northern Yucatan Peninsula, and the coast of southern 
Texas and northeastern Mexico. Mainly gentle winds and seas of 2 
to 4 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, high pressure will dominate into early next 
week. As low pressure deepens over Texas, the pressure gradient 
will tighten, causing moderate to fresh SE winds off the Texas 
and Mexico coast to expand across the entire western Gulf this 
weekend, then continue through early next week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Tight gradient between a broad surface ridge near 24N and a 1008
mb low near the Colombia-Venezuela border is sustaining fresh to
strong NE to E winds and 6 to 9 ft seas at the south-central
basin. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds and seas at 3 to 6 ft are
evident at the northwestern and waters north of Costa Rica and
Panama. Moderate to fresh E winds with 4 to 6 ft prevail elsewhere
in the Caribbean Sea.

For the forecast, fresh to near-gale trades across the central 
basin, with the strongest winds offshore Colombia and in the Gulf 
of Honduras will persist into midweek next week. Moderate to 
fresh trades are expected across the remainder of the basin, 
pulsing to strong in the Gulf of Honduras at night Sat through 
Tue. Rough seas produced by large NE swell will impact the 
Atlantic waters east of the Lesser Antilles into Mon, before
gradually subsiding afterward.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough former stationary front stretches southwestward
from southwest of Bermuda across 31N70W to the central Bahamas.
Scattered moderate convection is flaring up east of this feature,
north of 27N between 63W and 69W. Scattered showers are present
near the trough itself, including the central Bahamas and Great
Bahama Bank. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for
additional convection in the Atlantic Basin. 

Moderate to fresh with locally strong S to SW winds and 6 to 8 ft
seas are found near the trough, north of 28N between 55W and 68W.
Otherwise, a broad surface ridge extending southwestward from a
1034 mb Azores High across 31N40W to near the southeast Bahamas is
supporting light to gentle winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft north of 
26N between 35W and the Florida/southern Georgia coast. To the 
south, gentle SE to E winds and 2 to 4 ft seas exist from 20N to 
26N and west of 65W. For the Atlantic waters from 05N to 26N 
between 35W and the 65W/Lesser Antilles, moderate to fresh NE to E
winds and seas at 6 to 9 ft seas dominate. Gentle to moderate NE 
to E winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft in mixed moderate swells prevail 
for the remainder of the Atlantic west of 35W.

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong SW winds north of 
30N will lift north of the region this evening, allowing rough 
seas to diminish. Thereafter, moderate seas with moderate to 
fresh easterly winds will prevail through early next week. 

$$

Chan
  

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 160404
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sat May 16 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0345 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from northwestern Colombia
southwestward and westward across the southwestern Caribbean,
and continues to across the central portion of Costa Rica and 
to 10N85W, then southwestward to 05N93W and to 07N104W, where
it transitions to the ITCZ to 07N120W and to beyond 06N140W.
Numerous moderate to strong convection is within 180 nm south 
of the ITCZ between 132W-135W, also within 120 nm south of
the ITCZ between 135W-140W, and within 120 nm north of the 
ITCZ between 132W-137W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong 
convection is within 120 nm northwest of the trough between
91W-95W, and to the southeast of the same trough from 04N to 06N
between 83W-89W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

The pressure gradient between a broad area of high pressure 
west of Baja California and relatively lower pressure associated
to the thermal trough over Baja California is generally sustaining
mostly fresh northwest winds over the offshore waters of Baja 
California. A set of large northwest swell is just starting 
to cross 30N between 118W and 125W. Seas are 7 to 10 ft north
of Punta Eugenia and 5 to 7 ft from Punta Eugenia to Cabo San
Lazaro.

In the Gulf of California, the gradient there is maintaining
moderate west to northwest, except for moderate south to
southwest winds in the northern portion of the Gulf. Seas are 
3 to 4 ft in the Gulf, except for higher seas of 4 to 6 ft in 
long-period southwest swell at the entrance to the gulf.
 
Isolated showers and thunderstorms are seen over the far western
offshore waters of Oaxaca.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh southwest to west gap winds 
in the northern and central Gulf of California are expected to 
pulse to fresh to strong speeds Sat night and to strong to near 
gale-force Sun night. Mostly fresh northwest winds over the 
offshore waters of Baja California will continue through Mon 
morning, except increase to fresh to strong speeds west of Baja 
California Norte Sat night into Sun due to a tightening of the 
pressure gradient as strong high pressure north of the area 
shifts eastward. Large northwest swell will induce rough to very 
rough seas offshore Baja California Norte through Mon night, and 
rough seas offshore Baja California Sur Sat through Tue.
 
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

A recent ASCAT satellite data pass shows fresh northeast to east
winds just northwest of the Gulf of Papagayo region. Seas with 
these winds are 4 to 6 ft. Ascat satellite data passes indicate
mostly light to gentle south to southwest winds south of the
monsoon trough. Seas are over this part of the area 3 to 5 ft in 
long-period south to southwest swell.

For the forecast, fresh to strong gap winds will pulse during 
the night time hours offshore of the Papagayo region through the 
period. Rough seas will accompany these winds. Moderate to fresh 
north to northeast winds will pulse across the Gulf of Panama 
tonight and Sat night. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and 
moderate seas in southerly swell are expected through early next 
week. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected 
over the offshore waters of Colombia, and mostly over the outer 
offshore waters of Panama and Costa Rica.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A surface trough near 12N118W is generating scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection well southwest of the Revillagigedo
Islands from 06N to 10N between 115W and 120W. A broad ridge 
stretches southeastward from a strong 1034 mb high located well 
west of northern California across 30N130W to just southeast of 
the Revillagigedo Islands. This feature controls the wind regime 
north of the ITCZ, with moderate to fresh northeast to east 
winds west of 122W, and mostly moderate north to northeast 
winds east of 122W. Seas north of the ITCZ range from 6 to 8 ft 
in mixed swell. South of the ITCZ, gentle to moderate east to 
southeast winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft in mixed moderate swell 
prevail.

For the forecast, the aforementioned strong high pressure will 
shift eastward through late Sat leading to a tightening of the 
pressure gradient over the waters north of 27N between 120W and
130W. This will bring fresh to strong northwest to north winds 
for this area during the weekend. Associated long-period, large
north swell will build seas there to between 12 and 16 ft. The 
high is forecast to shift back westward while weakening early 
next week, which should allow these winds to diminish to between 
moderate and fresh. The large north swell will begin to slowly 
subside from Mon and beyond, with seas west of Baja California 
dropping below 12 ft.

$$
Aguirre
  

No Storms to Report