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Tropical Atlantic & Pacific Basin Outlooks & Discussions
Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic - Caribbean - Gulf of Mexico
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 700 PM EST Sun Nov 30 2025
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
This is the last regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlook of the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on May 15, 2026. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.
$$ Forecaster Bucci NNNN
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Tropical Weather Discussion
Atlantic - Caribbean - Gulf of Mexico
000
AXNT20 KNHC 221042
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Mon Dec 22 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Central Atlantic Significant Swell: A cold front will move through
Central Atlantic waters early this week, with strong to near
gale-force northerly winds behind it. Significant NW swell, with
period of 8 to 12 seconds, generated by gales N of the region will
accompany these winds and combine with wind-waves to induce very
rough seas SE of Bermuda starting tonight, spreading E across
waters N of 20N through Wed. Widespread seas of 12 to 16 ft can be
expected from 40W to 70W during this period. Please read the
latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center
at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more
information.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough is now confined entirely inland over Africa.
The ITCZ extends from 04N19W to 03N35W to 02N50W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 00N to 07N between 04W and 28W,
and from 00N to 10N between 29W and 44W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A cold front extends from Sarasota, Florida NW to SE Louisiana.
On the SW Gulf, a surface trough is generating scattered heavy
showers and tstms across the E Mexico offshore waters and in the
Bay of Campeche. Surface ridging dominates elsewhere, thus
supporting moderate to fresh NE to E winds and slight to moderate
seas.
For the forecast, high pressure building across the eastern
United States will tighten the pressure gradient across the
Florida Straits, bringing an increase in winds today. Fresh winds
over those waters will reach strong speeds today into Tue evening.
Rough seas will develop with the strong winds.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
The pressure gradient between the high pressure N of the region and
relatively lower pressure in northern Colombia is allowing for
mostly moderate to fresh trade winds across the basin, except for
fresh to strong winds off Colombia where seas are rough to 10 ft.
For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds off Colombia will
pulse mainly at night through Sat, supporting rough seas in the
south-central and portions of the SW Caribbean waters. High
pressure will move off the coast of the United States in the wake
of a cold front over the SW N Atlantic waters this evening. This
will tighten the pressure gradient over the waters in the lee of
Cuba, south of Hispaniola, and in the Windward Passage, thus
resulting in fresh to strong NE winds over these waters through
Thu night. Otherwise, E long period swell over the tropical
Atlantic waters will subside this morning. New long-period
northerly swell will affect the tropical Atlantic waters Wed and
Thu, and then again Fri evening through Sat.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
See Special Features section above for information on significant
swell arriving starting tonight that will bring very rough seas
to part of the central Atlantic into mid-week.
A cold front extends from 31N70W to Port St Lucie, Florida and is
followed by fresh to locally strong N to NE winds and moderate
seas. Ahead of the front, a pre-frontal trough from 30N63W to
24N75W is generating scattered showers N of 27N between 60W and
68W. The Azores High of 1026 mb located just S of the Islands
extends a ridge across the remainder subtropical Atlantic waters,
and supports moderate to fresh NE to E winds E of 40W along with
rough seas to 10 ft. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas
are ongoing elsewhere.
For the forecast W of 55W, the cold front will rapidly progress
eastward through midweek. Widespread strong to locally near-gale
force NE winds and rough seas are expected in the wake of the
front. Very rough seas in excess of 12 ft will be possible east of
75W Tue through midweek. A second cold front is forecast to enter
the northern waters by midweek with strong winds and building
seas in the wake of the front E of 70W.
$$
Ramos
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Tropical Weather Outlook
Eastern Pacific
ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1000 PM PST Sun Nov 30 2025
For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
This is the last regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlook of the 2025 Hurricane Season. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on May 15, 2026 for the eastern North Pacific and on June 1, 2026 for the central North Pacific. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.
$$ Forecaster Gibbs NNNN
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Tropical Weather Discussion
Eastern Pacific
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 220935
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Mon Dec 22 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0905 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient
between a persistent high pressure system over the southern
United States and lower pressures in the deep tropics will
support fresh to near gale-force northerly winds across the Gulf
of Tehuantepec through Fri. Seas with these winds are 6 to 9 ft.
High pressure building over the slopes of the Sierra Madre
mountains in Mexico will force winds to pulse to gale speeds at
night tonight through Wed. Seas will peak around 11 ft (3.5 M)
with the strongest winds. Conditions will improve by the weekend.
Northern Waters Gale Warning: A cold front extends from 30N133W
to 25N140W. A low pressure system is expected to form along the
front tonight and strengthen into Tue. The low pressure is
forecast to produce strong to gale-force winds in the northern
waters, mainly north of 28N and between 127W and 135W, tonight
into Tue. Winds will decrease below gale-force Tue evening as
the low pressure moves farther north of our waters. Strong to
near gale-force winds will persist north of 26N into late Thu.
Northerly swell will follow the strong low pressure and cold
front, supporting seas of 12 to 18 ft reaching as far south as
24N and east as 125W by Thu. Meanwhile, seas to 8 ft will reach
11N and 117W also by Thu.
Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more information.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 07N78W to 06N93W and to 08N107W.
The ITCZ stretches from 08N126W to beyond 08N140W. Surface
trough along 121W. Scattered moderate convection is observed
from 07N to 17N and between 95W and 123W.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Please read the Special Features section for more details on the
Gale Warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.
A strong 1036 mb high pressure system in the eastern United
States extends a ridge to the Gulf of America, supporting fresh
to near gale-force northerly winds across the Gulf of
Tehuantepec. Seas in these waters are 6-9 ft. Farther south,
moderate to locally fresh NE-E winds and moderate seas are
evident in the far offshore waters of Oaxaca.
Meanwhile, the remainder of the offshore waters of Mexico are
under the influence of a 1019 mb high pressure system near
31N123W that extends a weak ridge to the Revillagigedo Islands.
A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicate that gentle to
moderate northerly winds are found off Baja California Norte,
while light to gentle winds are noted off Baja California Sur.
Seas in these waters are moderate. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker
winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.
For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will support
fresh to near gale-force northerly winds and moderate to locally
rough seas through Fri. Winds are expected to pulse to gale-
force at night from today through Wed. Rough seas will develop
with these winds. Looking ahead, a cold front will be west of the
Baja California Norte offshore waters by the middle part of the
week. The leading edge of a northwest swell set propagating out
ahead of the front will begin to impact the western part of the
offshore waters north of Punta Eugenia on Wed, and the entire
offshore waters north of that same location by Fri building seas
there to just below 12 ft. Fresh to strong southerly winds may
develop in the northern Gulf of California Wed night into Thu.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
The strong subtropical ridge centered over the eastern United
States forces fresh to locally strong easterly trade winds and
moderate seas across the Gulf of Papagayo, extending downstream
to 90W. Farther east, moderate to locally fresh northerly winds
and seas of 3-5 ft are found in the Gulf of Panama. In the
remainder of the basin, moderate or lighter winds and moderate
seas prevail.
For the forecast, the aforementioned high pressure will support
fresh to strong northeast to east winds, mainly during late
night and into the early mornings in the Gulf of Papagayo over
the next several days. In the Gulf of Panama, mainly gentle to
moderate north winds are expected during the period, except for
winds occasionally reaching fresh speeds at night as weak low
pressure meanders off Colombia. Elsewhere, a weak pressure
gradient will generally allow for moderate or lighter winds along
with slight to moderate seas across the remainder of the
forecast waters through the period.
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
Please read the Special Features section for more details on the
Gale Warning in the northern waters.
A weak cold front is moving across the far northwest waters,
producing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms near the
boundary. The remainder of the tropical eastern Pacific is under
the influence of a broad subtropical ridge over the northern
waters. The pressure gradient between the aforementioned ridge
and lower pressures in the deep tropics results in moderate to
fresh easterly winds and moderate seas between 10N and 20N and
west of 110W. Similar conditions are found in the eastern waters,
north of 08N and east of 110W. A recent scatterometer satellite
pass showed that stronger winds are occurring near the strongest
convection. Meanwhile, moderate to locally fresh S-SE winds and
moderate seas are present south of 07N. Elsewhere, moderate or
weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent.
For the forecast, surface trough along the ITCZ near 123W will
enhance deep convection and strengthen winds for a couple of
days. Meanwhile, low pressure will develop today along the cold
front in the far NW waters. The low pressure will be driving the
front across the northwest waters southeastward today into Tue along
29N between 125W and 135W before it lifts north of the
discussion area. A very tight gradient between the low and strong
high pressure that builds in behind the front will produce strong
to gale-force northwest to north winds north of about 28N and
between 127W and 135W tonight into Tue. Rough to very rough seas
are expected to build with these winds. By the the middle part
of the week, low pressure will have intensified into storm status
north of the area. The wind field with this system is expected
to expand over a large area. This will bring strong to near gale-
force westerly winds and rough to very rough seas over the
discussion waters north of about 24N and west of 125W.
$$
Delgado
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Tropical Weather Discussion
Central Pacific
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