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Tropical Atlantic & Pacific Basin Outlooks & Discussions
Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic - Caribbean - Gulf of Mexico
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 700 PM EST Sun Nov 30 2025
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
This is the last regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlook of the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on May 15, 2026. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.
$$ Forecaster Bucci NNNN
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Tropical Weather Discussion
Atlantic - Caribbean - Gulf of Mexico
000
AXNT20 KNHC 101614
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Tue Mar 10 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1600 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between the
Atlantic ridge and the Colombian low will continue to support
fresh to strong trades across the eastern Caribbean through today,
and over the central part of the basin through Wed night. Winds
offshore of northwestern Colombia will pulse to gale-force during
the night-time hours tonight and again Wed night. Seas of 8-12 ft
are expected with the strongest winds. Please read the latest
High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at
website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.
Gale Warning E of 35W: Meteo-France has issued a Gale Warning for
the forecast zones of Agadir and Tarfaya. The forecast calls for
northerly gales with severe gusts through 11/1200 UTC at least.
Very rough seas are likely with these winds. Please refer to the
Meteo- France High Seas Forecast listed on their website
https://wwmiws.wmo.int for more details.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Africa
near 10N14W, then continues SW to near 04N20W. The ITCZ extends
from 04N20W to 02S30W to the coast of Brazil near 02S45W.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted from 02N to 05N
between 13W and 17W, and from 00N to 02N between 40W and 45W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A surface ridge extends from the western Atlantic and across the
northern Gulf. This pattern is supporting moderate to fresh SW
winds and 3-5 ft seas across the western Gulf, and gentle breezes
and 1-3 ft over the eastern Gulf.
For the forecast, a broad surface ridge extending across the basin
will prevail through Wed night. The pressure gradient between the
ridge and lower pressures over Mexico will support mainly
moderate to fresh E to SE winds basin-wide, pulsing to fresh and
strong near the northern Yucatan and the western Gulf in the
evenings, and slightly weaker winds overall in the northeastern
Gulf. Seas will be slight to moderate through Wed. A cold front
will impact the northwestern Gulf beginning Wed night, before
moving across the basin through Fri night. In the wake of the
front, winds will increase to fresh to strong speeds and seas will
build to 7 to 10 ft through Thu night with conditions improving
thereafter as ridging gradually rebuilds across the basin.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
Please see Special Features section above regarding a Gale Warning
in effect for the south-central Caribbean.
Recent buoy observations and overnight scatterometer satellite
data confirm fresh to strong winds off Colombia, the Gulf of
Venezuela, and off Cabo Beata on the southern coast of Hispaniola.
Moderate to fresh trade winds are evident elsewhere, except gentle
to moderate breezes over the northwest Caribbean. Seas are 7-9 ft
off Colombia, 5-7 ft elsewhere, except 2-4 over the northwest
Caribbean. A sharp upper trough extending from the Turks and
Caicos Islands to Costa Rica is supporting scattered showers and
thunderstorms around Jamaica.
For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a Bermuda High and a
Colombian low will support fresh to strong trades across the
eastern basin through today, and the central basin through Wed
night. Winds offshore of northwestern Colombia will pulse to gale-
force during the night-time hours tonight and Wed night. Fresh to
strong winds will linger in the S-central Caribbean into the
upcoming weekend. Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds will pulse
near the Windward Passage and south of Haiti through Thu.
Moderate to fresh winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras and Lee
of Cuba through Wed night. Large easterly trade- wind swell from
the tropical North Atlantic will keep rough seas near the Lesser
Antilles through early Thu. Marine conditions will improve
slightly but temporarily by the end of the week as the pressure
gradient weakens due to a weak cold front approaching the NW
Caribbean.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A surface ridge extends from 1029 mb high pressure centered east
of Bermuda to the coast of northeast Florida. This pattern is
supporting moderate to fresh E winds and 6-8 ft seas south of 24N
and west of 60W, and gentle breezes and 4-6 ft seas elsewhere.
Farther east, a surface trough is along roughly 42W from 20N to
30N, associated with an upper low over that area. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms associated with the upper low and
surface trough are active from 22N to 26N between 35W and 45W.
Divergent flow aloft is also supporting scattered showers and
thunderstorms from 14N to 20N between 25W and 30W. Fresh to strong
NE to E winds and 7-10 ft seas are active east of the trough,
north of 20N. Gentle to moderate breezes and 5 to 7 ft seas are
noted elsewhere across the basin east of 60W, except for fresh
trade winds and seas to 8 ft over the tropical Atlantic west of
50W.
For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to fresh easterly winds will prevail south
of 25N through Wed, reaching strong north of Hispaniola into the
Windward passage at times. Rough seas will prevail within these
winds and east of the central and southeast Bahamas through this
afternoon. Moderate or weaker winds can be expected elsewhere
across the region. Southerly fresh to strong winds may develop off
northern Florida Wed night ahead of a cold front. That front will
move offshore Thu night with fresh to strong winds and building
seas behind it, weakening and slowing from near Bermuda to the
northern Bahamas by Fri. High pressure ridging will build across
the basin for the end of the week into the weekend.
$$
Christensen
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Tropical Weather Outlook
Eastern Pacific
ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1000 PM PST Sun Nov 30 2025
For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
This is the last regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlook of the 2025 Hurricane Season. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on May 15, 2026 for the eastern North Pacific and on June 1, 2026 for the central North Pacific. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.
$$ Forecaster Gibbs NNNN
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Tropical Weather Discussion
Eastern Pacific
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 102038
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Tue Mar 10 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2000 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
A surface trough extends from 04.5N77W to 00.5N83W to 01.5N93W to
01.5N104W. The ITCZ is analyzed from 02N105W to 02N127W to beyond
01N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted
S of 03N between 85W and 96W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 04N to 05N between 92W and 105W and from 01N to 02.5N
between 123W and 127W.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Broad low pressure shifting eastward across Baja California and
the Gulf of California this morning has moved inland and weakened
across NW Mexico, and is now analyzed as a 1017 mb low near
30N112W. Associated broad cyclonic wind flow across the area N
of 20N and E of 118W is becoming less defined. Northwest of the
area, a broad surface ridge prevails and extends southeastward to
the Revillagigedo Islands. The resultant weakening pressure
gradient between the ridge and the low is producing moderate to
locally fresh NW to N winds across the Baja near and offshore
waters, where seas are 5 to 7 ft in NW swell. In the Gulf of
California, light and variable winds prevail across the northern
Gulf, while recent satellite scatterometer data showed gentle to
moderate W to NW winds across the remainder of the Gulf, with
seas to 4 ft across southern portions. Farther south, the
pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure across
interior Mexico is yielding fresh to strong northerly winds
within 150 nm of the Cabo Corrientes area, where seas are 6 to 8
ft. Light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas prevail
elsewhere, including moderate N winds spilling across the Gulf of
Tehuantepec.
For the forecast, the aforementioned low will continue to shift
eastward and farther inland while dissipating through this
evening. A ridge will build towards Baja California Sur and Cabo
Corrientes tonight through Thu, while new NW swell will enter
the waters of Baja California Norte. Fresh to strong NW to N winds
are expected between Baja California Sur and Cabo Corrientes,
including Las Tres Marias, from late today through Wed evening.
Northerly winds will then freshen inside the Gulf of California
Wed afternoon through Thu morning before the ridge weakens
modestly across the area. Otherwise, a strong gap wind event is
forecast to begin across Tehuantepec on Thu morning, with winds
reaching gale- force late Thu afternoon, then diminishing below
gale- force by late Fri morning. Moderate or weaker winds are
forecast across all the Mexican offshores throughout the upcoming
weekend.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Fresh NE to E gap winds and moderate seas to 7 ft prevail across
the Papagayo region, and extend downwind near 91W. Moderate N to
NE winds and moderate seas prevail across the Gulf of Panama and
downstream to 03.5N. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere N of
the equator. Cross-equatorial S-SW swell continues to spread
across regional waters, producing seas of 5 to 9 ft, and to 10 ft
south through southwest of the Galapagos.
For the forecast, fresh gap winds will continue to pulse to
strong at night across the Papagayo region through Fri night as
high pressure remains N of the area. Moderate N winds will also
pulse to fresh in the Gulf of Panama through Sat. Mainly light
to gentle winds will prevail elsewhere through the forecast
period. Cross-equatorial S-SW swell will continue to build across
the regional waters through tonight, before subsiding Wednesday.
Another round of cross-equatorial SW swell is expected to move
into the regional waters over the upcoming weekend.
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
High pressure of 1030 mb remains well NW of the region along
134W. An associated broad ridge covers the waters N of about 12N
and W of 107W. The related pressure gradient is sustaining fresh
NE to E winds from 08N to 21N between 112W and 140W. Moderate to
rough seas of 7 to 9 ft in mixed swell prevail with these winds.
Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker with moderate seas in
mixed N and S swell.
For the forecast, the low pressure over Baja California and the
central Gulf of California has moved eastward and inland across
NW Mexico and will dissipate this evening. High pressure will
reorganize NW of Baja California later tonight, and extend a
ridge south and southeastward across the E Pacific subtropical
waters. New NW swell will move into the waters W of the Baja
California offshores to about 130W tonight through early Thu, and
subside Thu night. Otherwise, large S-SW cross- equatorial swell
will continue to propagate N and NE, producing rough seas as far
N as 20N through Wed, before subsiding from east to west Wed
night through Fri. Looking ahead, another round of cross-
equatorial SW swell is expected to move into the regional waters
mainly E of 120W over the upcoming weekend.
$$
Stripling
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Tropical Weather Discussion
Central Pacific
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