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Tropical Atlantic & Pacific Basin Outlooks & Discussions

Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic - Caribbean - Gulf of Mexico

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Tue Jul 17 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected for the next five days.

Forecaster Berg

Tropical Weather Discussion
Atlantic - Caribbean - Gulf of Mexico

AXNT20 KNHC 171658

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1258 PM EDT Tue Jul 17 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1600 UTC.


SW Caribbean Sea gale warning: The pressure gradient is forecast 
to tighten between strong central Atlantic high pressure and 
broad low pressure over the southwestern Caribbean Sea beginning 
late Wed night increasing the present ongoing strong NE-E winds 
over the area from 11N-15N between 70W-77W, including the waters 
along the coast of Colombia, to increase to minimal gale force. 
These winds will weaken to just below gale force in the early 
morning hours of Thu. Seas are expected to build to the range of 
10-14 ft with the gale force winds, then subside to 8-11 ft Thu 
morning. Please read the High Seas Forecast, under the AWIPS/WMO 
headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, for more details.


A tropical wave is over far western Africa with its axis 
extending from 19N16W to 10N16W to near 05N16.5W. It is moving 
westward near 13 kt. A well defined 700 mb trough is noted in the 
model guidance over far western Africa. Latest satellite imagery 
is showing increasing cloudiness along with convection in the 
vicinity of the wave. The observed cloud pattern is more typically
characteristic of the presence of an ongoing W African monsoon 
trough, with the wave passing through it. The imagery shows 
scattered moderate convection within 120 nm east and 60 nm west of
the wave from 08N-10N. A major outbreak of Saharan Air Layer 
(SAL) dust envelops the wave environment north of 10N as seen in 
GOES-16 images.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along a position 
from near 23N45W to 16N48W to near 08N51W, moving westward at 
15-20 kt. The wave is depicted on GOES-16 RGB imagery as having a 
rather broad inverted-V shape envelope of broken to overcast 
stratocumulus clouds covering the area from 09N-23N between 38W- 
57W. The wave is being intruded upon by Saharan dust limiting 
significant convection from developing near it. Only scattered 
showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen within 180 nm to the
east of the wave from 10N-12N, while isolated showers are within 
30 nm of a line from 16N47W to 15N50W. The GOES-16 RGB images of 
the far eastern Atlantic are depicting yet another massive plume 
of Saharan dry air and associated dust following in behind the 
wave from 08N-27N east of the wave, to well inland W Africa
including the environment of the tropical wave that is analyzed 
from 19N16W to 10N16N to 16.5W as described above.

A tropical wave axis over the central Caribbean extends from
eastern Cuba to 15N77W and inland to the Panama/Colombian border
near 07N745, moving westward around 20 kt. Saharan dust is 
following in behind this wave axis as observed in GOES-16 
satellite imagery. No deep convection is presently noted with this
wave over the Caribbean waters. The earlier noted scattered 
moderate to strong convective activity has shifted westward to 
Panama and weakened to scattered moderate convection over central
Panama and its immediate adjacent waters. Isolated showers are 
possible elsewhere within 60-90 nm of the wave axis.


The monsoon trough axis extends from W Africa along the coast of 
Mauritania near 19N16W southwestward to 11N20W and to 07N30W, 
where latest scatterometer data indicates that the ITCZ begins and
continues to 09N39W to 09N49W. It resumes west of the above 
described tropical wave at 09N51W and to 07N59W. Scattered 
moderate convection is within 120-180 nm east-southeast of the
trough between 18W-21W. Similar activity is also within 60 nm 
south of the ITCZ between 32W-37W, and within 30 nm of a line 
from 06N38W to 05N45W.



The western periphery of Atlantic high pressure ridging extends 
E to W over the central gulf waters.Light to moderate 
anticyclonic flow are over the gulf waters. Current NWS mosaic 
radar shows scattered moderate convection over the northern gulf 
north of 28N between 88W-91W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms 
are over the remainder of the gulf waters. Expect rather weak 
high pressure to prevail across the northern gulf waters through 
Thu. A surface trough will move westward off the Yucatan Peninsula
each evening through Thu, enhancing nocturnal winds over the 
eastern section of the SW Gulf.


Please read the Special Features section for details about the 
next pulsing gale force wind event in the far SW Caribbean near 
the coast of Colombia. Aside from the tropical waves mentioned 
above, a small upper-level low is seen on water vapor imagery over
the extreme northeastern part of the Yucatan Peninsula, with a 
shear axis stretching from it eastward to east-central Cuba and to
the SE Bahamas. Mainly fresh E winds will continue over the 
central Caribbean Sea and strong NE-E winds will be over the SW 
and S central sections of the Caribbean through Thu. Low-cloud
streamers with brief isolated showers will continue over the far 
eastern Caribbean through Thu. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
will develop over the interior sections of Hispaniola each 
afternoon through Thu.


A weak surface trough over the western Atlantic extends from near
32N61W to 30N63W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms 
are ahead of the trough from 27N to 32N between 55W-59W and also 
from 28N-30N between 59W-61W. The trough will dissipate Wed as  
the supporting upper trough continues to lift northeastward 
away from it. High pressure will build in the wake of the trough.
A large area of Saharan Air Layer (SAL) dust that is currently 
over the central Atlantic from 09N-24N and between 48W- 65W will 
continue to translate westward through the rest of the week. A 
more subtle batch of dust tracking westward is observed from 18N- 
27N between 60W and the Bahamas. It spreads southwestward to over 
much of Cuba, with some of it spreading westward through the 
Straits of Florida.

For additional information 
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Tropical Weather Outlook
Eastern Pacific

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue Jul 17 2018

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an area of low
pressure located several hundred miles southwest of the southern tip
of the Baja California Peninsula has become less organized.
Upper-level winds are forecast to be unfavorable for development
during the next few days while the system moves westward to
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Pasch

Tropical Weather Discussion
Eastern Pacific

AXPZ20 KNHC 171557

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1556 UTC Tue Jul 17 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1530 UTC. 


A tropical wave is analyzed N of 05N along 90W and is estimated 
to be progressing W at 12 kt. No significant convection is
observed with this wave.

A tropical wave is analyzed from 04N to 14N near 109W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted where the tropical wave intersects
the ITCZ from 07N to 09N between 108W and 110W. 

A tropical wave is analyzed from 08N123W through a 1009 mb 
surface low embedded along the wave at 14N122W to 17N121W. This 
system is moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate and 
isolated strong convection is observed from 14N to 17N between
119W to 121W. Earlier scatterometer passes showed fresh easterly
flow within 180 nm either side of the wave axis from 13N to 15N.
A concurrent altimeter satellite pass showed seas to 8 ft.


The monsoon trough extends from 09N78W to 08N100W. The ITCZ
continues from 08N100W to the tropical wave near 109W, then on to
10N116W. The ITCZ continues from the 1009 mb low pressure near
14N122W to 09N130W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted within 120 nm either side of the ITCZ west of 125W.



A scatterometer pass from the previous evening along with reports
from Salina Cruz on the coast of Mexico near the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec indicated fresh to strong drainage flow into the 
Gulf of Tehuantepec earlier this morning. This flow is being
enhanced between high pressure over the western Gulf of Mexico 
and a tropical wave passing westward south of the region, and 
strong nocturnal winds with seas to 7 ft are expected into Thu 
morning. Light to gentle breezes and minimal seas are noted 
elsewhere over Mexican offshore waters. 

Divergent flow aloft associated with a mid to upper low over
northwest Mexico is supporting scattered overnight showers and 
thunderstorms inland over the mountainous terrain east of the 
Gulf of California. Some of this activity is currently impacting
the southern Gulf of California. This may repeat again tonight,
but taper off early as the mid/upper low migrates through the

Looking ahead, long period southwest swell will propagate into
the Mexican offshore waters by Fri, with combined seas in open 
waters building in excess of 5 ft. 


Gulf of Papagayo: Strong nocturnal drainage flow, accompanied by 
6 to 8 ft seas, are expected through Thu night with extended 
guidance suggesting these conditions will resume on Sun night. 

Gentle to occasionally moderate E winds are forecast elsewhere N 
of the monsoon trough which is meandering between 07N and 10N. 
Moderate southerly winds are forecast S of the monsoon trough 
for the next several days accompanied by 4 to 6 ft seas.

Long period southerly swell, in the form of 7 to 8 ft seas, will 
pass north of the Equator by Thu, and propagate northward into
the offshore waters of Central America through Sat.


A broad upper low is centered near 21N127W, supporting an
associated 1009 mb surface low near 14N122W along a tropical 
wave. While upper winds are unfavorable for further development, 
scatterometer data confirms fresh to occasionally strong easterly
flow in a swath on the northern side of the surface low through,
with seas observed at 8 ft. The tropical wave will continue 
west, reaching 130W by Thu, with the low gradually dampening out 
as the upper lift north of the area, allowing winds and seas to 
diminish. The subtropical ridge will build north of 20N, 
supporting moderate to fresh trade winds from 08N to 15N west of 
130W by late week.

Long period cross-equatorial swell, in the form of 7-9 ft seas, 
will move across the Equator between 90W and 125W on Wed, and 
continue to propagate N across the discussion area through Sat.


Tropical Weather Discussion
Central Pacific

No Storms to Report


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