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Tropical Atlantic & Pacific Basin Outlooks & Discussions

Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic - Caribbean - Gulf of Mexico
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu Aug 13 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently 
upgraded Tropical Storm Josephine, located over the tropical 
Atlantic Ocean several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles.

1. A low pressure area over eastern North Carolina is expected to move 
east-northeastward across the north Atlantic well to the south of 
New England and the Canadian Maritime provinces for the next several 
days.  This system could acquire some subtropical or tropical 
characteristics during the next two to three days while it moves 
over warm sea surface temperatures.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Beven

Tropical Weather Discussion
Atlantic - Caribbean - Gulf of Mexico

000
AXNT20 KNHC 131742
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
142 PM EDT Thu Aug 13 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Tropical Storm Josephine, at 13/1500 UTC, is 
near 13.7N 49.2W or 847 nm ESE of the northern Leeward Islands,
moving WNW at 13 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure 
is 1005 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 40 knots with
gusts to 50 knots. This general motion is expected to continue 
for the next few days followed by a turn toward the northwest 
late this weekend or early next week. Please monitor the
progress of Josephine if you are in the area of the 
Leeward Islands. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the 
next couple of days. Scattered moderate to strong convection 
is within 240 nm of the northern semicircle. Please read the 
latest NHC Public Advisory at 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml, and the 
Forecast/Advisory at 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml, for more 
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 36W from 19N southward, 
moving westward 15 knots. Isolated moderate convection is within
120 nm of the wave axis.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 72W from 23N southward, 
moving westward 15 to 20 knots. Isolated moderate convection 
is within 180 nm of the wave axis to include Hispaniola.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 89W from 20N southward, 
moving westward 10 to 15 knots. The wave is moving through 
Central America. Isolated moderate convection is within 
120 nm of the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of 
Mauritania near 19N16W, to 08N33W. The ITCZ extends from 08N38W
to 12N45W. Besides the convection mentioned in the tropical
wave section, isolated moderate convection is within 180 nm of
the monsoon trough.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge axis is over the N Gulf of Mexico along 29N.
Isolated moderate convection is over the E Gulf E of 86W to 
include Florida. Scattered showers are over the Bay of Campeche
S of 20N.

An upper level east-to-west oriented trough extends from NW Cuba 
to NE Mexico near 24N98W. 

High pressure in the northern Gulf will support gentle to
moderate winds and slight seas across the basin. Locally fresh 
winds are possible each night in the eastern Bay of Campeche 
near the Yucatan peninsula due to local effects.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Two tropical waves are over the basin. See above.

Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is over the
SW Caribbean S of 14N and W of 79W to include S Nicaragua and
Costa Rica. 

Fresh to strong trade winds will continue in south central 
Caribbean Sea through late Friday night. The comparatively 
strongest winds are expected near the coast of Colombia, and in 
the Gulf of Venezuela, each night. Fresh winds will pulse 
through the Windward Passage during the next several nights.

Tropical Storm Josephine is near 13.7N 49.2W 1005 mb at  
11 AM EDT moving WNW at 13 kt. Maximum sustained winds 40 kt
gusts 50 kt. Josephine will move to 14.5N 51.1W this evening,
15.8N 53.6W Fri morning, 17.1N 56.3W Fri evening, 18.5N 58.9W
Sat morning, 19.9N 61.3W Sat evening, and 21.3N 63.6W Sun 
morning. Josephine will weaken to a tropical depression near
24.0N 67.0W early Mon. Fresh to strong trade winds will 
continue across the south-central Caribbean through late Fri 
night, with strongest winds expected near the coast of
Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela at night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1022 mb high is over the W Atlantic near 35N62W. A 1027 mb 
high is over the E Atlantic near 37N31W. Scattered showers 
are N of the Leeward Islands from 21N-26N between 60W-64W.

Tropical Storm Josephine is near 13.7N 49.2W 1005 mb  at
11 AM EDT moving WNW at 13 kt. Maximum sustained winds 40 kt 
gusts 50 kt. Josephine will move to 14.5N 51.1W this evening, 
15.8N 53.6W Fri morning, 17.1N 56.3W Fri evening, 18.5N 58.9W 
Sat morning, 19.9N 61.3W Sat evening, and 21.3N 63.6W Sun
morning. Josephine will weaken to a tropical depression near
24.0N 67.0W early Mon. Otherwise, a persistent ridge extending 
from the Atlantic into the Gulf of Mexico will support gentle 
to moderate east to southeast winds, locally fresh S of 25N 
through Fri night.

$$
Formosa
Tropical Weather Outlook
Eastern Pacific
ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Thu Aug 13 2020

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Depression Ten-E, located about 1450 miles west-southwest of the 
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

1. A surface trough of low pressure located a few hundred miles 
west-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, continues to produce a large 
area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms off the southwestern 
coast of Mexico.  Even though this system has been slow to 
organize, environmental conditions are still conducive for 
development before it reaches cooler waters over the weekend, and a 
tropical depression is expected to form during the next couple of 
days.  This system is forecast to move west-northwestward at 10 to 
15 mph away from the west-central coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

2. A trough of low pressure is located just offshore the Pacific 
coast of Central America.  Conditions are expected to be conducive 
for a low to develop from this trough over the next few days, and 
and a tropical depression is likely to form this weekend or early 
next week while the system moves generally west-northwestward 
just offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Ten-E are issued under WMO 
header WTPZ35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP5.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Ten-E are issued under 
WMO header WTPZ25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP5.

Forecaster Berg

Tropical Weather Discussion
Eastern Pacific

078 
AXPZ20 KNHC 131607 CCA
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1508 UTC Thu Aug 13 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1520 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Depression Ten-E is centered near 13.7N 129.8W at 
13/1500 UTC moving W at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure 
is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 
40 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted within 
60 nm in of the SW semicircle of this depression. Please read 
the latest NHC Public Advisory at 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP5.shtml and Forecast/ 
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP5.shtml for 
more details.

A tropical wave analyzed along 106W, north of 02N is moving 
westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong 
convection is noted from 09N-19N between 102W-109W. 
Environmental conditions appear conducive for development, and a 
tropical depression is expected to form within the next few days 
before the system reaches cooler waters later this weekend. This 
system is forecast to move west- northwestward at about 10 to 15 
kt toward the Revillagigedo Islands. Expect fresh to near gale 
force winds and building seas to 12 or 13 ft through Sat, though 
this may need to be boosted significantly if the system does 
develop into a tropical cyclone. Regardless of tropical 
development, this system is expected to affect the offshore 
waters off Cabo Corrientes through tonight, then between Socorro 
Island and Cabo San Lucas tonight through Sat.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is analyzed along 89W, north of 02N through 
Nicaragua, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate 
convection is noted from 06n-13N between the coast of Costa Rica 
to 89W. An area of low pressure is expected to form along the 
wave axis in a few days over the far eastern portion of the 
basin to the south of the coast of Central America. Conditions 
are expected to be conducive for development, and a tropical 
depression could form this weekend or early next week while it 
moves generally west-northwestward just offshore the coast of 
Mexico. At a minimum, heavy rainfall is possible over Costa Rica 
and Panama into Fri.

Please the Special Features section above for more information 
on the tropical wave along 103W/104W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends from 06N77W to 12N100W to 13N125W, 
then resumes west of T.D. Ten near 12N132W to 11N140W. Scattered 
moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 11N 
and east of 89W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N 
to 13N between 112W and 123W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see Special Features for details of developing low
pressure from off Cabo Corrientes to Socorro Island.

The impacts of Elida on waters off Baja California are
diminishing as the storm gradually dissipates west of the area.
However, swell associated with Elida of 5 to 7 ft are likely 
through the early morning from Cabo San Lazaro to Punta Eugenia 
beyond 210 nm. 

Farther south, lower pressures over the eastern Pacific will 
encourage fresh to strong gap winds to pulse overnight into the 
Gulf of Tehuantepec through early next week. Seas should peak to
near 9 ft in the Gulf of Tehuantepec accordingly.

Looking ahead, another low pressure area may move into the 
waters off Chiapas and Oaxaca by Sun night. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

A moderate north-south pressure gradient across Central America 
will promote fresh to strong NE winds across the Gulf of Papagayo
during the overnight hours through the end of the week. Moderate
to fresh southwesterly winds will persist south of the monsoon 
trough through Saturday. An area of low pressure is expected to 
form in a few days over the far eastern portion of the basin to 
the south of the coast of Central America. Seas up to 9 feet will
be possible west of Panama and Costa Rica. Environmental 
conditions appear conducive for development, and a tropical 
depression is expected to form during the next few days before 
the system reaches cooler waters over the weekend. This system is
forecast to move west-northwestward at about 15 mph away from 
the coast of southwestern Mexico. Even if this does not occur, 
expect locally heavy rainfall over portions of Panama and Costa 
Rica. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see the special features section above for more 
information about T.D. Ten-E.

The subtropical ridge dominates the waters north of 20N. No 
significant winds are note, and NW swell to 8 ft will diminish 
in the area today. 

Elsewhere moderate north-south pressure gradient between the 
high and the monsoon trough is promoting generally gentle to 
moderate NE winds across the waters. Fresh to strong SW flow 
south of the monsoon trough between 110W and 120W along with 8 to
9 ft seas will persist into early week.

$$
Torres

Tropical Weather Discussion
Central Pacific

No Storms to Report




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