000
AXNT20 KNHC 152350
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Sat May 16 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2230 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 35W, from 12N southward,
and moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Widely scattered moderate
convection is noted ahead of the wave from 02N to 04N between 36W
and 38W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 57W, from 13N southward
into western Suriname, and moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. 
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen across 
Guyana and Suriname.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near Saloum Delta area in
Senegal, then curves southwestward to 03N26W. An ITCZ continues 
from 03N26W to 01N32W, then westward from 00N36W to near the
Amazon River Delta, Brazil. Numerous moderate to scattered strong
convection is present near and south of the monsoon trough from  
02N to 07N and east of 24W. Widely scattered moderate convection
is seen up to 150 nm along either side of the ITCZ.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A surface ridge reaches southwestward from a 1018 mb high near 
the Florida Big Bend area to south of Tampico, Mexico. Light to 
gentle winds and seas at 1 to 2 ft are present the eastern half of
the Gulf. Moderate to fresh NE to SE winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are
noted off northern Yucatan Peninsula, and the coast of southern 
Texas and northeastern Mexico. Mainly gentle winds and seas of 2 
to 4 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, high pressure will dominate into early next 
week. As low pressure deepens over Texas, the pressure gradient 
will tighten, causing moderate to fresh SE winds off the Texas 
and Mexico coast to expand across the entire western Gulf this 
weekend, then continue through early next week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Tight gradient between a broad surface ridge near 24N and a 1008
mb low near the Colombia-Venezuela border is sustaining fresh to
strong NE to E winds and 6 to 9 ft seas at the south-central
basin. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds and seas at 3 to 6 ft are
evident at the northwestern and waters north of Costa Rica and
Panama. Moderate to fresh E winds with 4 to 6 ft prevail elsewhere
in the Caribbean Sea.

For the forecast, fresh to near-gale trades across the central 
basin, with the strongest winds offshore Colombia and in the Gulf 
of Honduras will persist into midweek next week. Moderate to 
fresh trades are expected across the remainder of the basin, 
pulsing to strong in the Gulf of Honduras at night Sat through 
Tue. Rough seas produced by large NE swell will impact the 
Atlantic waters east of the Lesser Antilles into Mon, before
gradually subsiding afterward.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough former stationary front stretches southwestward
from southwest of Bermuda across 31N70W to the central Bahamas.
Scattered moderate convection is flaring up east of this feature,
north of 27N between 63W and 69W. Scattered showers are present
near the trough itself, including the central Bahamas and Great
Bahama Bank. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for
additional convection in the Atlantic Basin. 

Moderate to fresh with locally strong S to SW winds and 6 to 8 ft
seas are found near the trough, north of 28N between 55W and 68W.
Otherwise, a broad surface ridge extending southwestward from a
1034 mb Azores High across 31N40W to near the southeast Bahamas is
supporting light to gentle winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft north of 
26N between 35W and the Florida/southern Georgia coast. To the 
south, gentle SE to E winds and 2 to 4 ft seas exist from 20N to 
26N and west of 65W. For the Atlantic waters from 05N to 26N 
between 35W and the 65W/Lesser Antilles, moderate to fresh NE to E
winds and seas at 6 to 9 ft seas dominate. Gentle to moderate NE 
to E winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft in mixed moderate swells prevail 
for the remainder of the Atlantic west of 35W.

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong SW winds north of 
30N will lift north of the region this evening, allowing rough 
seas to diminish. Thereafter, moderate seas with moderate to 
fresh easterly winds will prevail through early next week. 

$$

Chan
  

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 152218
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Fri May 15 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2000 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A monsoon trough extends west-southwestward from northwestern 
Colombia to 04N95W, where it transitions to an ITCZ and 
continues to 05N113W, then from 05N120W to beyond 05N140W. 
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen near and
south of the monsoon trough from 02N to 07N east of 96W, and 
north of the ITCZ from 05N to 08N between 104W and 111W. Numerous
moderate to scattered strong convection is found near the second
segment of the ITCZ from 02N to 09N west of 120W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Broad ridging to the west is maintaining moderate to fresh NW to
N winds across and seas of 5 to 7 ft west of Baja California and
near the Revillagigedo Islands. A thermal trough running across
the length of the Gulf of California is supporting gentle to
locally moderate NW to SW to SE winds and 2 to 4 ft seas. Except
moderate to locally fresh N winds at the Gulf of Tehuantepec as
indicated by the latest ASCAT satellite scatterometer data, 
mainly gentle winds and seas at 5 to 6 ft in mixed moderate 
swells prevail for the offshore waters of central and southern 
Mexico. Isolated thunderstorms are seen at the far western 
offshore waters of Oaxaca and Guerrero States.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh SW to W gap winds in the 
northern and central Gulf of California are expected to pulse to 
strong with locally near-gale force at night this weekend. 
Moderate to locally fresh NW winds over the offshore waters of 
Baja California will continue through Mon morning, except 
increase to between fresh and strong west of Baja California 
Norte Sat through Sun night, due to an eastward shift of a strong
high pressure to the northwest. In addition, large NW swell are 
going to cause rough to very rough seas near Baja California 
Norte tonight through Tue, and rough seas near Baja California 
Sur Sat through Tue.
 
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
30N
Latest ASCAT satellite scatterometer along with altimeter data 
reveal moderate to fresh easterly gap winds and 5 to 7 ft seas 
extend offshore of southern Nicaragua and the Papagayo region to 
near 88W. Gentle to moderate winds, from the north are present 
at the Gulf of Panama, and from the south are seen off Colombia,
Ecuador and near the Galapagos Islands. Seas of 3 to 6 ft are
noted at these locations, with long-period southerly swell
persisting at the latter locations. Gentle winds with 3 to 5 ft
seas prevail for the rest of the central America offshore 
waters. Refer to the Intertropical Convergence Zone/Monsoon 
Trough section at the beginning for convection in the region.

For the forecast, fresh gap winds will pulse to strong with 
locally rough seas during night time hours offshore of the 
Papagayo region through Tue night. Moderate to fresh N to NE 
winds will pulse across the Gulf of Panama tonight and Sat night.
Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas in 
southerly swell are expected through early next week. Scattered 
heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected over the 
offshore waters of Colombia, Panama and Costa Rica through the 
weekend. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A surface trough near 12N118W is generating scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection well southwest of the Revillagigedo
Islands from 06N to 10N between 115W and 120W. Refer to the 
Intertropical Convergence Zone/Monsoon Trough section at the 
beginning for additional convection in the region. A broad ridge
stretches southeastward from a strong 1034 mb high located well 
west of northern California across 30N130W to just southeast of 
the Revillagigedo Islands. This feature controls the wind regime
north of the ITCZ, with moderate to fresh NE to E winds west of 
122W, and mostly moderate N to NE winds east of 122W. Seas north 
of the ITCZ range from 6 to 8 ft in a mix of moderate swells. 
South of the ITCZ, gentle to moderate SE to E winds and seas of 5
to 7 ft in mixed moderate swells prevail.

For the forecast, the aforementioned strong high pressure will 
shift eastward through late Sat leading to a tightening of the 
pressure gradient over the waters north of 27N between 120W and
130W. This will bring fresh to strong NW to N winds for this 
area during the weekend. Associated long-period, large N swell 
will build seas there to between 12 and 16 ft. The high is 
forecast to shift back westward while weakening early next week,
which should allow these winds to diminish to between moderate 
and fresh. The large north swell will begin to slowly subside 
from Mon and beyond, with seas west of Baja California dropping 
below 12 ft.

$$

Chan
  

No Storms to Report