en Español

000
ABNT20 KNHC 051728
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Oct 5 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Southwestern Gulf of America (AL92):
A trough of low pressure over the southwestern Gulf of America is 
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Although 
environmental conditions appear to be marginally conducive, gradual 
development is becoming more likely, and a tropical depression is 
expected to form during the middle portion of the week. This system 
is expected to drift eastward over the next couple of days, before 
it turns northward. It is too early to determine the specific 
impacts to the northern Gulf Coast, but interests there should 
closely monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
  

000
AXNT20 KNHC 052037
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Tue Oct 6 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Southwestern Gulf of America (Invest AL92): A trough of low 
pressure over the southwestern Gulf of America is producing 
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Although environmental 
conditions appear to be marginally conducive, gradual development 
is becoming more likely, and a tropical depression is expected to 
form during the middle portion of the week. This system is 
expected to drift eastward over the next couple of days, before it
turns northward. It is too early to determine the specific 
impacts to the northern Gulf Coast, but interests there should 
closely monitor the progress of this system. Formation chance 
through 48 hours and the next seven day is high.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 60W, south of 20N, moving westward at 10
to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to 15N 
between 56W and 62W. 

A tropical wave is over the western Caribbean with axis along 
85W, south of 21N, moving westward at around 5 to 10 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is active over Nicaragua and Costa Rica.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic at 17N16W and extends to
07N40W. The ITCZ extends from 07N40W to 10N56W. Scattered moderate
convection is evident from 11N to 15N between 18W and 24W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Please read the Special Features section above for more
information on Invest AL92. 

A cold front extends from the Florida Big Bend area near 30N84W to
28N93W, where it becomes a stationary front and reaches to the
mouth of the Rio Grande near 26N97W. Farther south a trough
extends from 28N92W to the 1010 mb low pressure (Invest AL92) near
22N96W to 19N93W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms extend from
20N to 27N between 90W and 97W. A recent scatterometer satellite
pass indicated fresh to strong N to NE winds north and west of the
front along the coasts of Texas and Mexico as far south as
Veracruz. Gentle to moderate breezes are noted elsewhere. Seas are
3-5 ft off Texas, and 2-4 ft elsewhere. 

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong N winds will follow a 
trough along the E Mexican offshores through Tue. Weak surface 
ridging over the NE Gulf will slowly shift eastward through late 
Tue ahead of a front stalling over the northern Gulf today through
Wed before it starts to weaken Wed night. Fresh NE to E winds and
building seas are forecast N of the front. Looking ahead, gradual
development of a trough in the southwestern Gulf is becoming more
likely, and a a tropical depression is likely to form during the 
middle or latter portion of the week. This system is expected to 
drift eastward over the next few days, before it turns northward. 
Regardless of development, fresh to locally strong winds and rough
seas are forecast over portions of Gulf Wed through Sat night. 
Mariners should monitor the latest forecasts from the National 
Hurricane Center.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Divergent flow aloft near an upper low centered over Jamaica is
supporting afternoon showers and thunderstorms across Haiti,
Jamaica, eastern Cuba and adjacent waters south of Haiti to 15N.
Broad ridging over the western Atlantic is supporting fresh E 
winds over the south-central Caribbean, as noted in recent
scatterometer satellite data. A concurrent altimeter pass
indicated seas to 8 ft off Colombia in this area. Mostly moderate
E to SE winds and 3-5 ft seas are noted elsewhere across the
Caribbean. Fresh E winds and seas to 7 ft are likely ongoing over
Atlantic waters just east of the southern Leeward and northern
Windward Islands, where scattered showers and thunderstorms are
active.

For the forecast, weak ridging over the western Atlantic will 
support moderate to fresh E to SE winds across the northwest and 
central Caribbean through Tue morning, except offshore Colombia 
and the Gulf of Venezuela where fresh winds will likely pulse to 
strong speeds at night through tonight. Afterward, a cold front 
will move across the waters N of the region, further weakening the
pressure gradient and supporting mainly gentle to moderate winds 
across the basin through Thu. High pressure is forecast to develop
to the SE of Bermuda Thu night, which will drift westward through
Fri evening before dissipating. This will increase the easterly 
winds over the central Caribbean to fresh speed Fri, then moderate
to fresh Fri night through Sat night. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A few showers and thunderstorms are active off Jacksonville,
Florida, along a cold front reaching from 1014 mb low pressure
near 31N79W to 30N81W. Ridging dominates the remainder of the western
Atlantic, anchored by 1018 mb high pressure east of Bermuda near 
31N58W. The pattern is supporting gentle to moderate E to SE winds
and 3-5 ft west of 50W, except for an area of fresh winds and 7 ft
seas east of Martinique. Farther east, a few showers and
thunderstorms are active along a trough reaching from weak 1014 
mb low pressure near 32N35W to 26N40W. This is breaking up the
subtropical ridge normally in place there, supporting light to
gentle breezes across the north Atlantic basin south of 31N and east
of 50W, with 3-5 ft seas in a mix of swell.

For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front will move slowly E over the area
tonight and early Tue, stalling from Bermuda to NE Florida Tue 
night into Wed. Fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas will 
follow the front, remaining off NE Florida through Wed night. 
Moderate or weaker winds and slight seas will persist elsewhere 
through Fri. Otherwise, by Fri evening, high pressure developing 
SE of Bermuda and shifting westward will increase trades S of 22N
to moderate to fresh speeds, continuing Sat and Sat night. 

$$ 

Christensen
  

en Español

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 051729
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Mon Oct 5 2026

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane 
Rachel, located a few hundred miles west-southwest of the southern 
tip of the Baja California Peninsula. 

South of Southern Mexico (92E):
A broad area of low pressure located near the Gulf of Tehuantepec is 
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental 
conditions appear favorable for gradual development, and a tropical 
depression is expected to form during the next few days while the 
system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward. Interests 
along the coast of southwestern Mexico should monitor the progress 
of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
  

037 
AXPZ20 KNHC 052052
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Mon Oct 5 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2040 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Rachel is centered near 20.3N 117.1W at 05/2100 UTC,
moving west at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 973
mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt.
Peak seas are near 31 ft (9.5 M). Numerous moderate to scattered
strong convection is observed within 180 nm SW and 120 nm SE
semicircles. A continued slow westward to west-northwestward 
motion is expected for the next several days. Fluctuations in 
strength are possible over the next few days, with gradual 
weakening beginning by the mid part of the week. Swells generated
by Rachel will continue to affect the coast of the Baja 
California Peninsula for the next couple of days. These swells 
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current 
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather 
office.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website - 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest 
Rachel NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

South of Southern Mexico (Invest 92E): A broad area of low 
pressure located near the Gulf of Tehuantepec is producing 
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions 
appear favorable for gradual development, and a tropical 
depression is expected to form during the next few days while the
system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward. 
Interests along the coast of southwestern Mexico should monitor 
the progress of this system. The disturbance has a medium chance
of formation in the next 48 hours and a high chance in the next 
7 days.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 08N85W to 15N105W, and
from 11N115W to beyond 09N140W. Numerous moderate to isolated
strong convection is from 04N to 07N between 85W and 90W.
Scattered moderate convection is from 10N to 15N between 95W and
105W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section above for information on 
Hurricane Rachel located SW of Baja California, Mexico, and
Invest 92E off southern Mexico. 

Rough to very rough seas along with swell and potential rough 
surf along the coast are the main impacts of Rachel off Baja 
California Sur and the Revillagigedo Islands. Elsewhere, the main
focus is Invest 92E, the developing low pressure off western 
Oaxaca. Gentle breezes prevail across the remainder of the 
Mexican offshore waters, with moderate seas in open waters and 
slight seas in the Gulf of California. 

For the forecast, Rachel will move to 20.5N 117.3W this evening,
20.5N 118.9W Tue morning, and 20.7N 120.2W Tue evening. The 
center of Rachel will continue westward to 21.1N 121.7W Wed 
morning, then weaken to a tropical storm near 21.7N 123.1W Wed 
evening, and move to 22.0N 124.6W Thu morning. Seas will continue
to subside near the entrance to the Gulf of California this 
morning, and across the offshore waters of Baja California Sur 
today as Rachel continues to slowly move away from the area. 
Looking ahead, a broad area of low pressure located just to the 
south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is currently producing scattered
showers and thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions 
appear favorable for gradual development, and a tropical 
depression is expected to form during the middle to latter 
portion of the week while the system moves slowly west- 
northwestward to northwestward, just offshore of the southern to 
southwestern coast of Mexico. The disturbance has a medium chance
of formation in the next 48 hours and a high chance in the next 
7 days. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

A weak pressure gradient dominate much of the basin north of the
equator, allowing for light to gentle winds and slight to
moderate seas. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds and
moderate seas are found between Ecuador and the Galapagos 
Islands. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring in the 
offshore waters of Central America producing gusty winds and 
higher seas.

For the forecast, weak high pressure centered north of the area 
will maintain moderate or weaker winds over the offshore waters 
of Central America and Colombia, along with mostly moderate seas
through the forecast period. Moderate to locally fresh southerly
winds and moderate seas will persist between Ecuador and the
Galapagos Islands over the next several days. Winds and seas may
increase across the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador
this week as a broad area of low pressure becomes better organized
south of Mexico.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see the Special Features section above for information on
Hurricane Rachel located SW of Baja California, Mexico.

Outside of the area affected by Hurricane Rachel, high pressure 
dominates the remainder of the tropical eastern Pacific, 
supporting moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas. 

For the forecast, Rachel will move to 20.3N 118.2W tonight, 
20.4N 119.5W Tue afternoon, 20.7N 120.9W Wed night, and 21.2N 
122.3W Wed afternoon. Rachel will weaken to a tropical storm 
near 21.6N 123.7W Thu morning, then move to 21.9N 124.9W Thu 
afternoon. Rachel will change little in intensity as it moves to 
22.3N 126.0W Fri afternoon. Farther south, long-period SW swell
will reach as far as the equator between 95W and 125W Tue through
late Thu. Looking ahead, winds may increase and seas build over 
the waters north of 10N and east of 110W later this week as 
Invest 92E becomes better organized. 

$$
Christensen
  

en Español

000
ACPN50 PHFO 051729
TWOCP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM HST Mon Oct 05 2026

For the central North Pacific...between 140W and 180W:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Rachel, located a few hundred miles west-southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California Peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
NNNN