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Tropical Atlantic & Pacific Basin Outlooks & Discussions
Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic - Caribbean - Gulf of Mexico
en Español
000
ABNT20 KNHC 260501
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Fri Jun 26 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
$$
Forecaster Papin
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Tropical Weather Discussion
Atlantic - Caribbean - Gulf of Mexico
011
AXNT20 KNHC 252139
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Fri Jun 26 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2130 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Caribbean Gale Warning:
A tight pressure gradient between an Atlantic Ridge and the
Colombian Low will cause tradewinds off Colombia and over the Gulf
of Venezuela to peak at minimal gale-force Fri night and early Sat
morning. Seas under these winds are expected to range between
12-15 ft north of Colombia and 4-7 ft in the Gulf of Venezuela.
Please refer to High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by
the National Hurricane Center at websites:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more
information.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 40W from 16N
southward, and moving westward at 15-20 kt. Isolated moderate
convection is observed from 00N-13N between 33W-46W.
A central Caribbean tropical wave is near 71W from Dominican
Republic southward into Venezuela, moving westward at 15-20 kt.
No significant deep convection is occurring with this wave this
afternoon.
A western Caribbean tropical wave is near 83W from 19N southward
along coastal Nicaragua. It is moving westward around 5-10 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 11N-16N west of
82W.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 14N17W near coastal
Gambia and extends to 07N20W. The ITCZ extends from 07N20W to
06N36W. It begins again at 05N41W to 04N53W. Isolated moderate
convection is observed from 00N-13N between 33W-46W and from
03N-08N between 21W-26W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
Gentle to moderate or weaker E to SE winds and slight seas
prevail across much of the Gulf. Isolated moderate convection is
occurring from 25N-27N east of 83W.
For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf
region into early next week. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds
will generally prevail across the basin during this time, except
for fresh to locally strong NE to E winds pulsing off the
northwestern Yucatan Peninsula nightly, and moderate to fresh SE
to S winds across the far northwestern Gulf through the weekend.
Looking ahead, a weak frontal boundary will sink southward into
the east-central Gulf Mon night and Tue.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
Please read the Special Features section about an upcoming Gale
Warning, and please refer to the Tropical Waves section for
details on convection in the basin.
The pressure gradient between ridging across much of the Atlantic
and the Colombian Low supports fresh to strong trades across much
of the central Caribbean, as well as seas of 8-9 ft in the south-
central to SW Caribbean. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate
seas prevail in the E Caribbean, with gentle to moderate or weaker
winds and 2-5 ft seas elsewhere.
For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Atlantic
ridge and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong trade
winds, and rough to very rough seas in the central Caribbean
through Sat morning. Expect winds at near-gale force offshore of
Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela during the nighttime and
early morning hours. On Fri night and early Sat morning, winds off
Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela will peak at minimal gale-
force. Pulsing fresh to strong winds and moderate to locally rough
seas are expected in the Gulf of Honduras nightly through Sat
night.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
An upper-level shortwave centered at 31N63W is helping to enhance
isolated moderate convection north of 28N between 60W-70W. The
remainder of the Atlantic is dominated by ridging, supporting
moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas across much of the
basin.
For the forecast west of 55W, a ridge will continue to dominate
the forecast area through the weekend. Fresh to strong easterly
winds, with locally rough seas are expected offshore Hispaniola,
including approaches to the Windward Passage, each late afternoon
and night through Fri night. A nearly north-to-south aligned
surface trough across the central Atlantic will shift westward
across the region Fri through Sun, reaching near 70W by Sun
morning. This will weaken the ridge and lead to diminishing winds.
Looking ahead, a weak cold front will sink southward into the
waters off northeastern Florida Mon night.
$$
Landsea/Adams
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Tropical Weather Outlook
Eastern Pacific
en Español
019
ABPZ20 KNHC 260504
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Thu Jun 25 2026
For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:
Central and Western East Pacific:
A tropical wave located several hundred miles south of southwestern
Mexico continues to produce disorganized shower and thunderstorm
activity. This system is expected to encounter more favorable
conditions for development over the weekend across the central
portion of the East Pacific basin. A tropical depression is likely
to form by the early to middle part of next week while the wave
moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph into the
western portion of the East Pacific.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.
$$
Forecaster Papin
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Tropical Weather Discussion
Eastern Pacific
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 260305
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Fri Jun 26 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
The axis of a tropical wave is near 107W, south of 17N, moving
westward at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is active
from 11N to 14N between 101W and 107W.
The axis of a tropical wave is near 123W, south of 21N, moving
westward at around 10 to 15 kt. No significant deep convection is
occurring with this system this morning.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 10N84W to 06N95W to 11N118W to
08N125W. The ITCZ extends from 08N125W to beyond 06N140W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is active from
06N to 08N between 87W and 95W.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
A Tehuantepec gap wind event is producing pulses of fresh to
strong N to NE winds with seas 7-8 ft. A surface ridge extends
from 27N120W southeastward to 20N110W. Winds elsewhere across the
offshore waters are moderate or weaker. Seas on the Pacific
waters are 5-6 ft in S to SW swell and are 1-3 ft over the Gulf
of California waters.
For the forecast, low pressure over the deep tropics will
continue inducing fresh to strong N to NE gap winds across the
Gulf of Tehuantepec through tomorrow night. Elsewhere, winds and
seas across the Mexican offshore waters should be quiescent
through early next week. Looking ahead, large NW swell may move
into the waters off Baja California Norte starting Sun night.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
A gap wind event is forcing fresh to strong NE winds across the
Gulf of Papagayo region this evening with seas 7-9 ft. Elsewhere
winds are moderate or weaker. Seas are 7-9 ft in S swell over
the equatorial waters and 5-6 ft in SW swell over the remainder
of the offshore waters.
For the forecast, the pressure difference between high pressure
north of the area and the monsoon trough farther south is
supporting a Gulf of Papagayo region gap wind event. Fresh to
strong NE to E winds should last through early next week.
Elsewhere, winds should remain quiescent. Large S swell moving
into the equatorial waters will continue through Sat night.
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
A 1009 mb low is centered near 18N123W. Winds within 120 nm in
the northwest semicircle are fresh to strong with seas 6-8 ft.
Broad ridging dominates the area north of 15N. The moderate
pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure over the
monsoon trough/ITCZ is forcing moderate to fresh NE trades
between 10N and the ridge. Elsewhere, winds across the open
Pacific are moderate or weaker. Seas are 5-8 ft in mixed SW and N
swell.
For the forecast, the tropical wave near 107W is forecast to
encounter more favorable conditions for development over the
weekend across the central portion of the East Pacific basin. A
tropical depression is likely to form by the early to middle part
of next week while the wave moves westward to west-northwestward
at 10 to 15 kt the waters well southwest of the Revillagigedo
Islands. Outside of this system, little change in winds are
expected for the next several days. A large SE swell should reach
our southern border tonight and reach up to 01N with at least 8
ft seas for the next several days.
$$
Christensen
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Tropical Weather Discussion
Central Pacific
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en Español
020
ACPN50 PHFO 260504
TWOCP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM HST Thu Jun 25 2026
For the central North Pacific...between 140W and 180W:
Central and Western East Pacific:
A tropical wave located several hundred miles south of southwestern
Mexico continues to produce disorganized shower and thunderstorm
activity. This system is expected to encounter more favorable
conditions for development over the weekend across the central
portion of the East Pacific basin. A tropical depression is likely
to form by the early to middle part of next week while the wave
moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph into the
western portion of the East Pacific.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.
$$
Forecaster Papin
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