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Tropical Atlantic & Pacific Basin Outlooks & Discussions

Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic - Caribbean - Gulf of Mexico
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Tue Jun 22 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on the 
remnants of Claudette, located a couple of hundred miles southeast 
of Cape Cod, Massachusetts.

1. A tropical wave located about 650 miles east-southeast of the 
Windward Islands is producing disorganized showers and a few 
thunderstorms.  Some additional development of this disturbance will 
be possible during the next couple of days before upper-level winds 
become less conducive for further organization by Thursday.  The 
system is expected to move westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 
20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Latto

Tropical Weather Discussion
Atlantic - Caribbean - Gulf of Mexico

000
AXNT20 KNHC 212327
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Tue Jun 22 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2320 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Claudette is centered near 37.5N 72.1W at 21/2100
UTC or 240 nm SSW of Nantucket Massachusetts moving ENE at 25
kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. An east- 
northeastward to northeastward motion with some increase in 
forward speed is expected over the next day or so. On the forecast
track, Claudette will move across the northwestern Atlantic Ocean
tonight, and pass just south of Nova Scotia on Tuesday. Little 
change in strength is forecast tonight. Some weakening is expected
on Tuesday, and Claudette is forecast to become a post-tropical 
cyclone Tuesday afternoon and dissipate late Tuesday night. See 
the latest NHC Public Advisory at 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml and 
Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml
for more details. For marine information, please see products 
from the Ocean Prediction Center at ocean.weather.gov.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave axis is analyzed along 17W from 04N to 16N, 
moving W at 5 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N
to 15N between 14W and 23W. Strong winds were detected within 
this area of convection by a scatterometer pass.

A tropical wave axis is analyzed along 36W from 02N-13N, moving 
west at 5 to 10 kt. At this time, no convection is noted with this
tropical wave.

A tropical wave extends its axis along 47W from 03N to 14N, 
moving W at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted 
from 07N to 13N between 46W and 58W.

A tropical wave extends its axis along 72W from 09N to 20N, 
moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted along
the northern portion of the wave, affecting Hispaniola and 
adjacent waters.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Africa near 11N17W
to 06N21W to 06N32W. Segments of the ITCZ extend from 06N37W to 
06N45W and from 06N49W to the border of Suriname and French 
Guiana near 06N55W. For convection information, see the tropical
waves section above.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging covers the eastern half of the basin while low
pressure has built W of 90W. Upper-level diffluent flow over the 
north-central Gulf continue to support heavy showers and tstms N
of 25N between the Florida Big Bend and Louisiana offshore 
waters. Moderate to fresh return flow is across the basin W of 87W
with seas in the 3 to 6 ft range. Light to gentle variable winds
with seas to 3 ft are elsewhere. 

For the forecast, a surface ridge will dominate the Gulf waters 
over the next several days. Pulsing fresh E to SE winds are 
expected each night into the early morning hours to the NW of the 
Yucatan peninsula through Thu night. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is moving across the central Caribbean this
evening, supporting the continuation of showers and tstms in
Hispaniola, the Mona Passage, and western Puerto Rico. An upper
level low to the west of this wave supports similar shower
activity over Jamaica and portions of Cuba. Aside from the
convection, the wave is supporting fresh to locally strong
easterlies from the coast of Hispaniola to the coast of Colombia
and Venezuela. Seas are in the 5 to 8 ft range over this region
with the highest seas in the south-central basin. Moderate to
fresh winds are elsewhere, except in the Gulf of Honduras where
fresh to strongs winds are pulsing this evening. 

For the forecast, the Atlantic high pressure will combine with 
the Colombian low to support fresh to strong trades over the 
south-central Caribbean through Tue. Pulsing fresh to strong E to
SE winds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras at night through 
Thu night. A tropical wave currently over Hispaniola along 72W 
will continue moving west across the central Caribbean today and 
Tue increasing the likelihood of showers and thunderstorms. The 
wave is forecast to move across the western Caribbean Wed and Thu.
Another tropical wave is expected to approach the Lesser Antilles
by Thu.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section for information on
Tropical Storm Claudette located N of the forecast waters.

The Azores high dominates the entire tropical Atlantic and 
support moderate to fresh easterlies S of 24N and W of 55W.
However, locally strong winds are happening over Hispaniola
adjacent waters. Over the far eastern Atlantic, NE fresh winds are
between the coast of W Africa and the Cape Verde Islands. 

For the forecast west of 65W, a surface ridge will dominate the 
area during the next several days. Fresh S to SW winds are 
expected through late today over waters N of 30N W of 70W due to 
the pressure gradient between Claudette and the Atlantic high 
pressure. Fresh to locally strong winds are expected to pulse at 
night over Hispaniola adjacent waters including approaches to the 
Windward Passage through the end of the week. 

$$
Ramos
Tropical Weather Outlook
Eastern Pacific
ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Mon Jun 21 2021

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. An area of low pressure is expected to form south of southeastern 
Mexico in a few days.  Environmental conditions appear conducive for 
gradual development thereafter, and a tropical depression is likely 
to form late this week or this weekend while the system moves 
west-northwestward parallel to and just offshore of the southern 
coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Forecaster Latto

Tropical Weather Discussion
Eastern Pacific

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 220256
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Tue Jun 22 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0210 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends from 05N to 16N along 99W, moving west 
near 10 kt. Associated convection is modest and described below.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10.5N73W to 11.5N97W to 15N107W 
to low pres 1011 mb near 11.5N127W to 09N132W. ITCZ extends from
09N132W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered to locally numerous 
moderate to strong convection is from 03.5N to 12.5N between 82W
and 90W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 05N to 
12N between 90W and 122W, from 06N to 07.5N between 131W and 
138W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A weak pressure gradient persists across the Baja California
peninsula offshore waters supporting gentle to locally moderate 
NW winds, except for moderate to locally fresh winds along the 
coast of Cabo San Lucas. Recent altimeter data indicate that 
wave heights are in the 4-7 ft range. These conditions will 
prevail through Thu. Winds will increase across the Baja 
California Norte offshore waters Thu into the weekend as a ridge
shift eastward and builds across the region.

In the Gulf of California, gentle to locally moderate S to SE 
winds will prevail through early in the weekend. Wave heights 
will be in the 3 to 4 ft range during that period.

Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is expected to develop 
south of southeastern Mexico and the Gulf of Tehuantepec in a few
days. Environmental conditions are expected to be favorable for 
gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form
late this week or into the weekend as this systems moves WNW, or  
parallel and offshore southern Mexico. Moderate to fresh SE 
winds are forecast to develop over the Oaxaca and Chiapas 
offshores waters by Thu, and increase to fresh to strong Fri. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL 
AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to moderate SW to W winds prevail south of the monsoon 
trough, with light to gentle variable winds north of the monsoon
trough. Seas continue in the 5-8 ft range in SW swell.

Gentle to moderate SW to W winds are expected across the entire 
forecast area through Wed, then a gentle SW breeze will continue
into the weekend south of the monsoon trough. Long period SW 
swell across the regional waters will gradually subside through
Wed. 

Looking ahead, low pressure is expected to  develop south of 
Guatemala and the Gulf of Tehuantepec in a few days, increasing 
winds to moderate to fresh. Some gradual development is possible 
as the system moves WNW and offshore of southern Mexico.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A high pressure ridge extends  across the waters west of 116W 
and is centered on a 1030 mb high near 39N143W. The pressure 
gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure 
within the monsoon trough/ITCZ is supporting gentle to moderate 
winds north of 08N and west of 120W. Mainly moderate SW winds 
prevail south of the monsoon trough with seas ranging between 7 
to 8 ft in southerly swell. This swell will gradually subside 
through Wed night. Wave heights generated by this swell are 
expected to remain in the 7-8 ft range through tonight then 
subside to 6-7 ft through mid-week.

$$
Stripling
Tropical Weather Discussion
Central Pacific

No Storms to Report




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