ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 231616

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1116 AM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

   Valid 231700Z - 241200Z

   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
   WYOMING...FAR SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA...AND FAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...

   Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions are still expected
   across portions of the northern High Plains today. An upper-level
   trough across the West and associated 50-60 knot mid-level jet will
   contribute to increasing southwesterly flow across the
   northern/central High Plains. The accelerating southwesterly flow
   aloft along with a robust surface low over eastern Montana will
   contribute to southwest winds of 15-25 mph across northeastern WY,
   southeastern MT and adjacent bordering ND/SD areas through the
   afternoon. These winds combined with RH reductions of around 20%
   will present an elevated fire weather concern today amid
   sufficiently dry fuels.

   These southwest flow trajectories will promote further downslope
   warming and drying, rapidly eroding a shallow temperature inversion
   under mostly clear skies through early afternoon. Wind gusts of 60
   mph have already been observed in the Big Horn Basin with wind gusts
   in the 40-45 mph range in the leeward slopes of the Big Horn Range
   in central/northeastern WY. A corridor of stronger southwest winds
   ranging from 25-35 mph with gusts near 50 mph will promote a
   critical fire weather threat for far northeastern WY, extreme
   southeastern MT and far northwestern SD. A minor expansion of
   elevated highlights were warranted based on current surface
   observation trends and an expected delay in cold front passage until
   later this evening.

   ..Williams.. 10/23/2026

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0145 AM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026/

   ...Synopsis...
   Upper-level troughing across the Southwest will lift north into the
   Intermountain West today, with a belt of enhanced west to
   southwesterly flow overspreading the northern/central Rockies. A
   surface low will deepen across Montana, with increasing
   southwesterly surface gradients resulting in strengthening surface
   southwesterly flow ahead of an approaching cold front. Elevated to
   Critical fire weather conditions will be likely ahead of the front
   for portions of the Northern High Plains. 

   ...Northern High Plains...
   The strengthening of the surface winds in combination with downslope
   warming/drying will result in a period of Elevated to Critical fire
   weather conditions across portions of northeastern WY, southeastern
   MT, and western SD. Within these regions, afternoon relative
   humidity reductions to around 15-25% will overlap with sustained
   southwesterly winds at 20-30 mph. Additionally, above normal
   temperatures in the 60s and lower 70s F are forecast. A Critical
   delineation was maintained across portions of northeastern WY,
   southeastern MT, and western SD where ensemble guidance continues to
   show highest probabilities of sustained critical fire weather
   conditions amid drying fuels (70-75th percentile ERCs). Broader
   Elevated fire weather is expected from north-central Wyoming into
   the Dakotas.

   ...Georgia...
   Dry northeasterly flow is expected across portions of southern
   Georgia this afternoon. Though wind speeds are likely to remain
   below elevated thresholds, increased initial attack activity
   associated with existing dry fuels will remain a concern.

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   CLICK FOR DAY 1 FIREWX AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT (KWNSPFWFD1)