ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 161604

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1104 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

   Valid 161700Z - 171200Z

   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND
   SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

   ...Central and northern High Plains...
   A surface low will deepen in the northern and central Plains ahead
   of an approaching upper-level trough currently traversing the
   Northern Rockies. Increasing southwesterly flow aloft and
   consolidating surface pressure gradient will aid in developing gusty
   south to southwest winds accompanied by a dry, well-mixed boundary
   later across much of the central and northern Plains this afternoon.
   A corridor of stronger southerly winds is expected across portions
   of eastern SD and southwestern MN although RH reductions should be
   limited to the 20-25% range this afternoon. Nonetheless, receptive
   fuels coupled with the increasing southerly winds in place could
   support wildfire spread, necessitating a northeastward extension of
   Elevated Highlights into this region.

   ...Southern Plains...
   Lee surface troughing extends southward from the evolving surface
   low in the Northern Plains into the central and southern High
   Plains. A considerably drier boundary layer and supportive downslope
   trajectories will allow for Critical fire weather conditions across
   portions of eastern CO, northeastern NM and OK/TX Panhandles. Poor
   relative humidity recoveries were observed across portions of the
   southern High Plains, with current RH at 10% or below across
   southeastern NM and northwest TX. Southwest winds of 15-25 mph amid
   the presence of a 90F+ low-level thermal ridge and RH dropping into
   the single digits during peak heating this afternoon, will support
   critical fire weather conditions. Critical and corresponding
   Elevated Highlights were nudged southward into portions of Northwest
   TX to account for current surface observation trends and near term
   model guidance.

   The forecast remains on track for an elevated fire weather threat
   across portions of the Central Appalachians and Mid Atlantic with no
   changes to current highlights. Please see previous discussion for
   additional details.

   ..Williams.. 04/16/2026

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0204 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026/

   ...Synopsis...
   An upper-level trough will deepen as it moves into the southern
   Great Basin/Four Corners today and tonight. As the trough
   intensifies, an initially modest subtropical jet will strengthen
   across northern Mexico into the southern Plains. At the surface, a
   strong low pressure system will deepen across SD as an associated
   cold front moves southward into the central Plains. Another
   shortwave trough will move over the eastern US bolstering low-level
   winds across parts of the Appalachians and Mid Atlantic.

   ...Central and Southern High Plains...
   As upper forcing from the approaching trough spreads over the
   Rockies into the plains, the surface low will deepen and move
   southeastward with the cold front. This should encourage a broad
   area of strong west/southwesterly downslope winds from eastern WY
   and SD, into parts of the central Plains. Sustained southwesterly
   winds of 15-25 mph (gusts up to 30 mph) amid 10-15 percent RH are
   expected atop very dry and receptive fuels, supporting critical fire
   weather concerns. Fire-weather conditions will gradually end
   overnight from north to south as the front moves south with the
   surface low.

   Farther south across OK/TX and NM, a surface pressure trough will
   encourage gusty westerly low-level flow. Sustained winds of 15-25
   mph are likely as the surface low gradually moves southward ahead of
   the cold front. Low RH is also expected (10-15%) owing to downslope
   trajectories and warm afternoon temperatures. While some areas have
   seen rainfall in the past few days, several days of poor humidity
   recoveries and gusty winds have allowed for significant drying and a
   broad area of critical fuels.

   ...Central Appalachians and Mid Atlantic...
   Strengthening southwesterly flow at the base of the shortwave tough
   will encourage strengthening of a lee trough. This will aid gusty
   downslope winds of 10-15 mph through the afternoon. Afternoon RH
   values will drop to 25-30%. With little recent rainfall and very dry
   fuels, several hours of elevated fire-weather conditions appear
   likely. More localized fire-weather conditions could extend into
   southern and central PA. However, here increased RH and weaker winds
   amid areas of recent rainfall should limit broader concerns.

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

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