ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 140956
   SPC AC 140956

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0356 AM CST Sun Dec 14 2025

   Valid 171200Z - 221200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   Northward moisture return is expected to persist through the period
   on D4/Wednesday as a strong surface low moves across the northern
   Plains and Upper Midwest and strong southerly flow expands across
   much of the warm sector. Despite the moisture advancing well inland,
   warm air aloft should limit strong thunderstorm potential on
   D4/Wednesday. 

   By D5/Thursday, weak to moderate instability is expected from East
   Texas to the Mid-Mississippi Valley. Strong shear will be present
   north of I-20 as a mid-level trough amplifies and a strong mid-level
   jet overspreads the warm sector. Despite the presence of strong
   shear and weak to moderate instability, updraft intensity may still
   struggle due to weak lapse rates/warm air aloft. Only weak height
   falls/cooling temperatures aloft are forecast south of the MO
   Bootheel. Thunderstorms are likely from the Mid-Mississippi Valley
   northward, where forcing will be stronger, but these regions will
   remain well north of the more favorable instability. Therefore, any
   severe weather threat would likely be marginal.

   The cold front, associated with the storm system on D5/Thursday,
   will move off the East Coast early on D6/Friday. Some marginal
   severe weather may be possible Friday morning, but otherwise, severe
   weather potential will be low as high pressure builds east of the MS
   River in its wake. 

   By this weekend, return flow is anticipated across portions of the
   southern Plains, but destabilization remains uncertain. A zonal
   mid-level pattern with multiple embedded shortwave troughs is
   currently forecast during that timeframe which commonly results in
   considerably low predictability. Regardless of the exact outcome
   over the weekend, there is general consensus for zonal flow and a
   ridge building across the western CONUS and into the Plains. In
   general, this will likely not support a significant severe weather
   threat.

   ..Bentley.. 12/14/2025

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT