ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 090927
   SPC AC 090927

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0327 AM CST Tue Dec 09 2025

   Valid 121200Z - 171200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   Medium-range models indicate that at least a couple of short wave
   troughs, digging within an initially strong northwesterly regime
   across and to the east-southeast of the Canadian Rockies, will
   contribute to reinforcement of large-scale troughing farther
   downstream late this work week into next weekend.  As this occurs,
   cold surface ridging building to the lee of the Canadian and
   northern U.S. Rockies is forecast to eventually overspread much of
   the central and eastern U.S., offshore Atlantic and northwestern
   Gulf Basin by the beginning of next week.

   Based on the past few model runs, it appears that an initial
   southeastward surge of cold air may weaken before reaching the Gulf
   coast, allowing for a gradual boundary-layer modification over the
   northwestern Gulf Basin to continue, before the more substantive
   surge of cold air reaches the northern Gulf by late this weekend. 
   Particularly in association with the stronger front, if not also the
   weaker initial one, a moistening elevated and perhaps boundary-layer
   based return flow may contribute to sufficient destabilization to
   support a risk for thunderstorms, anywhere in a corridor from
   southeastern Texas toward the Mid South and Tennessee Valley. 
   However, with any surface frontal wave development forecast to
   remain weak, the risk for severe weather is likely to remain low.

   Into early next week, model output becomes more varied, but it
   appears that flow may trend more zonal across the northern
   mid-latitudes of North America.  In lower latitudes, another
   developing moist southerly return flow, in advance of troughing
   digging across the southern Rockies and Great Plains, may contribute
   to renewed thunderstorm development across the northwestern Gulf
   coast vicinity.  However, the potential for severe weather still
   seems limited at this time.

   ..Kerr.. 12/09/2025

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