ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 250900
   SPC AC 250900

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0400 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

   Valid 281200Z - 031200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   ...D4/Sunday - Northeast TX into parts of the upper MS Valley...
   Some severe threat is expected persist into D4/Sunday from northeast
   TX into parts of the upper MS Valley, as an amplified
   mid/upper-level shortwave trough moves from the Great Plains into
   the upper Great Lakes region. Substantial convection on D3/Saturday
   results in some uncertainty regarding storm evolution on Sunday.
   However, guidance generally suggests that a strong mid/upper-level
   jet associated with the ejecting shortwave will overspread a
   relatively moist warm sector, with potential redevelopment of
   organized convection along/ahead of a cold front. 

   There is some potential for the threat to be bimodal, with one
   potential area from eastern KS into northern MO and IA in closer
   proximity to the ejecting shortwave, and a separate area across the
   ArkLaTex vicinity, within a region of somewhat more favorable
   moisture and instability. However, with storm evolution remaining
   rather uncertain, a continuous 15% area has been maintained in this
   outlook, with some adjustments. 

   ...D5/Monday - Southern Plains into the lower MS Valley...
   Guidance generally suggests that a low-amplitude shortwave trough
   will move across parts of TX into the lower MS Valley on Monday.
   There is some potential for this shortwave to impinge upon a region
   of moderate to strong buoyancy along and south of a weak surface
   boundary that may begin to lift northward across parts of TX/LA
   during the day. A few severe storms with a threat of hail and
   damaging winds would be possible in this scenario. However,
   uncertainty related to substantial antecedent convection and its
   effect on boundary placement renders predictability too low for
   probabilities at this time. 

   ...D6/Tuesday - D8/Thursday...
   Spread begins to notably increase in extended-range guidance
   regarding pattern evolution by D6/Tuesday. In general, stronger
   mid/upper-level flow is expected to shift northward, through there
   will be some potential for shortwave troughs and related cold fronts
   to impinge upon a reservoir of richer low-level moisture and
   stronger buoyancy from the southern Plains into parts of the
   Southeast/OH Valley. Confidence in the details regarding any severe
   potential in this time frame is much too low for probabilities with
   this outlook.

   ..Dean.. 04/25/2024

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