ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 260857
   SPC AC 260857

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0357 AM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

   Valid 291200Z - 041200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   An upper-level trough centered within the Intermountain West will
   continue pivoting northeast through the northern Plains on Monday.
   This feature will be fairly meridional in character. The strongest
   height falls are likely to occur after 00Z within North Dakota. To
   the east, an amplified upper ridge will be in place. Moisture
   advection will continue in the upper Mississippi Valley given the
   southerly low levels winds. Strong to extreme buoyancy is expected
   to develop as a result. While this pattern does suggest potential
   for severe weather, there is still uncertainty as to where the most
   favorable environment will be given the influence of convection that
   could occur late on Sunday night into early Monday morning. The 15%
   area has been maintained this cycle given the potential for a an MCS
   to develop, but modification seems likely in the coming days given
   the mesoscale details that will play a large role in where severe
   weather ultimately occurs.

   From Tuesday onward, the strongest mid-level flow will shift into
   Canada as the western upper trough becomes more broad. A large
   reservoir of strong to extreme buoyancy is still forecast to be in
   place underneath the ridge. While areas of severe weather are
   possible, they will be highly tied to mesoscale features as larger
   scale features will become more nebulous and deep-layer shear will
   weaken through the remainder of the period. As a result,
   predictability is reduced.

   ..Wendt.. 06/26/2026

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