ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 020958
   SPC AC 020958

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0358 AM CST Mon Mar 02 2026

   Valid 051200Z - 101200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   ...Thursday/Day 4 and Friday/Day 5...
   At mid-levels, a shortwave trough is forecast to move through the
   mid Mississippi Valley on Thursday as flow remains southwesterly
   across the south-central U.S. An upper-level system will be located
   in the Desert Southwest. At the surface, moisture advection is
   forecast across the southern Plains, where surface dewpoints will be
   mostly in the 50s and 60s F by afternoon. As surface temperatures
   warm during the day, an axis of moderate instability is forecast to
   develop to the east of a dryline from west-central Texas
   north-northeastward into the eastern Texas Panhandle and western
   Oklahoma. Along this axis of instability, moderate deep-layer is
   forecast, along with steep mid-level lapse rates. This will likely
   support a severe threat during the afternoon and evening. Supercells
   with large hail, damaging wind gusts and a tornado threat will be
   possible.

   On Friday, mid-level southwesterly flow will strengthen across parts
   of the southern and central Plains, as a mid-level jet ejects
   northeastward into the central U.S. At the surface, a moist airmass
   with moderate instability is forecast to be in place by afternoon
   from north-central Texas north-northeastward into the lower Missouri
   Valley. Model forecasts are in agreement that scattered
   thunderstorms will develop across this unstable airmass during the
   afternoon and evening. Moderate deep-layer shear and steep mid-level
   lapse rates should be favorable for supercells with large hail. Wind
   damage and tornadoes will also be possible with supercells and
   bowing line segments. Some solutions suggest that the threat will
   persist into the overnight period as a low-level jet ramps up across
   the region.

   ...Saturday/Day 6 to Monday/Day 8...
   Mid-level southwesterly flow is expected to continue over the
   south-central U.S. on Saturday, as a cold front moves southward
   across the southern Plains and Ozarks. To the south of the front,
   the models forecast pockets of moderate instability, and suggest
   that scattered to numerous thunderstorms will develop. In addition,
   moderate to strong deep-layer shear is forecast across the northern
   edge of the moist sector. Model consensus suggests that a severe
   threat will develop Saturday afternoon and evening, mainly from
   west-central Texas northeastward into the western Ozarks.

   The cold front is forecast to continue moving southward into the
   western Gulf Coast states on Sunday. Scattered thunderstorms are
   forecast to develop near and to the south of the front Sunday
   afternoon, where an isolated severe threat will be possible.
   Confidence is low concerning the spatial distribution of any
   potential threat. On Monday, a shortwave ridge is forecast to move
   over the top of a moist airmass in the southern Plains. This
   scenario could support an isolated severe threat in the afternoon.
   However, uncertainty is high at this range in the forecast period.

   ..Broyles.. 03/02/2026

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