ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 060750
   SPC AC 060750

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0150 AM CST Fri Feb 06 2026

   Valid 091200Z - 141200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   An upper low and attendant shortwave trough will be positioned over
   northern Mexico and AZ/NM on Day 4/Mon. This system will progress
   eastward across TX and the Gulf Coast states/Southeast through Day
   6/Wed. As this occurs, a deepening surface low over the Plains will
   support southerly returning flow transporting modified Gulf moisture
   northward into parts of the south-central and southeast states
   through mid-week. Some increase in thunderstorm potential is
   possible with this system, though severe potential appears limited
   by weak instability and warm midlevel temperatures. 

   By the end of the period, an upper ridge is forecast over the
   south-central and southeast states, maintaining Gulf moisture from
   parts of TX into Gulf Coast states on persistent southerly low-level
   flow. At the same time, an upper trough is forecast to deepen over
   portions of the Plains and Midwest, and a surface cold front will
   develop southward toward the Gulf Coast from Thursday night into
   Friday (Days 7-8). Some increase in thunderstorm potential will be
   possible, though severe potential is uncertain given poor model
   run-to-run inconsistency and questions regarding quality of moisture
   return.

   ..Leitman.. 02/06/2026

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