ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 220755
   SPC AC 220755

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0255 AM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026

   Valid 251200Z - 301200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   Upper ridging across the Plains and upper troughing over the western
   and eastern U.S. will persevere through the weekend, before a more
   progressive pattern takes shape and an upper trough ejects into the
   Plains states early next week. Through the weekend, thunderstorm
   chances should remain confined to the High Plains and points
   westward, with little indication of an organized severe threat. By
   early next week, there is some consensus among medium-range
   deterministic guidance of a surface low developing over the central
   Plains, encouraging low-level moisture advection beneath cooling
   temperatures and increasing west-southwesterly flow aloft. However,
   guidance does not show a favorable overlap of instability or
   vertical wind shear, with AI/ML calibrated guidance also not
   depicting a signal for severe, so probabilities have been withheld
   this outlook.

   ..Squitieri.. 09/22/2026

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