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SPC Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

Forecast Discussion - Day 4-8

   ACUS48 KWNS 170917
   SPC AC 170917

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0417 AM CDT Sun Jun 17 2018

   Valid 201200Z - 251200Z

   The large-scale upper-level pattern during the Day 4 through 8 time
   frame will consist of persistent ridging over the southeast and
   southwest states, and a series of troughs moving east across mainly
   the northern portion of the CONUS.  Thunderstorms are expected in
   the vicinity of a frontal boundary from the mid-Atlantic region west
   into the central Plains Wednesday and Thursday, however notable
   differences exist in extended-range guidance regarding the location
   of the front and a developing weak surface low along the front over
   the central U.S.  Given these differences, predictability remains
   too low to highlight 15% daily probabilities.  Later in the period,
   considerable spread exists in the position of upper-level troughs
   and associated surface features, resulting in continued low
   confidence in defining any risk areas.

   ..Bunting.. 06/17/2018



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