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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 011551
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1051 AM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024
Valid 011700Z - 021200Z
Locally elevated conditions may develop into central/southern New
Mexico and southeast Arizona this afternoon. Additionally, locally
elevated conditions are likely to develop at lower elevations on
inland slopes of the Transverse and Peninsular Ranges spreading into
the deserts of southern California where recent large grass fires
have occurred. Otherwise, the previous forecast remains on track.
..Nauslar.. 06/01/2024
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0144 AM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024/
...Synopsis...
Largely zonal mid-level flow is expected across the CONUS today as a
strengthening shortwave trough moves eastward over the Southwest.
Stronger flow aloft will increase surface winds atop drying fuels
over much of the Southern Great Basin and Southwest. High pressure
off the east coast will also support relatively dry onshore flow
over parts of the FL Peninsula. Elevated fire-weather conditions
appear likely.
...Southwest...
Mid-level flow is forecast to gradually increase today ahead of a
deepening shortwave trough over the Southwest and Four Corners.
Bolstered by the strengthening flow aloft, low-level surface winds
should respond with gusts of 15-25 mph likely during the afternoon
along with minimum RH values below 15%. With little appreciable
rainfall in recent weeks, fuels continue to become more receptive
due to persistent daily minimum RH in the low teens and single
digits. Widespread elevated fire-weather conditions are likely from
portions of the southern Great Basin into the Four corners.
...Florida...
High pressure off the Atlantic Coast will support persistent and
relatively dry easterly flow over much of the FL Peninsula. With
afternoon high temperatures expected to climb into the upper 80s to
low 90s F, RH values should fall to around 30-35%. The overlap of
10-15 mph surface winds, low RH and the lack of recent rainfall
should support several hours of elevated fire-weather conditions.
Confidence is highest that sustained elevated conditions will be
most likely over western portions of the peninsula where the lowest
humidity is expected.
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 010647
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0147 AM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
...Synopsis...
Zonal mid-level flow is expected to continue this weekend as the
short-wave trough over the Four Corners moves eastward. A lee low
over southeast Colorado will support gusty winds over parts of the
Southwest. With warm temperatures and limited precipitation,
elevated fire-weather conditions are possible.
...Southwest into parts of NM and SW Texas...
With zonal flow aloft persisting into D2/Sunday, low-level westerly
flow is expected to remain enhanced over much of the Southwest. A
lee low will further bolster southwest surface winds through the
afternoon hours with 15-20 mph gusts likely from parts of eastern
AZ, into NM, and southwest TX. Fuels continue to become more
receptive due to a lack of appreciable rainfall and persistent daily
minimum RH in the low teens and single digits. With another dry and
hot day expected, widespread elevated fire-weather conditions appear
likely. A few hours of locally critical fire-weather conditions are
also possible with winds sustained closer to 20-25 mph. However, the
strongest surface winds are likely to be near the surface low in
eastern NM where recent rainfall has likely tempered fuels somewhat.
This should keep any critical conditions brief and relatively
confined.
..Lyons.. 06/01/2024
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 312119
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0419 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024
Valid 021200Z - 081200Z
Quasi zonal flow will develop over much of the CONUS this weekend
through early next week, and enhanced westerly flow will develop
over northern portions of the West through early next week as an
upper low is forecast to move into British Columbia. A weak
atmospheric river will bring precipitation to along and west of the
Cascades Day 3/Sunday into Day 5/Tuesday, with some spillover across
the Inland Northwest and northern Rockies, west of the Divide. To
the south of the precipitation, stronger surface winds are likely to
spread across portions of the Intermountain West into early next
week.
Model guidance continues to coalesce around an upper-level ridge
building over the West and upper-level troughing over most of the
eastern US mid to late next week. Temperatures of 5-20F above normal
are expected across the West, including temperatures of 90-110F from
the Southwest into the Great Basin, West Slope, and Central Valley.
Ensemble forecast guidance also indicates the possibility of a
cutoff low forming west of Baja/southern California late next week,
which could help increase moisture advection into the Intermountain
West, especially the Southwest late next week.
...Day 3/Sunday - Day 4/Monday: Southwest into southwest Texas...
West-southwest winds of 15-25 mph are expected to overlap RH of
5-25% across central/southern portions of the Intermountain West
this weekend into early next week. The fuels farther north in the
Great Basin and West Slope are not quite as dry as they are in much
of Arizona, New Mexico, and southwest Texas where ERC-Y values are
tracking above normal and near to above the 90th annual percentile.
BI values are also forecast to exceed the 90th annual percentile in
much of Arizona and New Mexico, with some areas possibly surpassing
the 97th percentile. While very strong winds are not expected at
this time, elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are
likely across portions of Arizona, New Mexico, and into the Big Bend
Day 3/Sunday - Day 4/Monday and may linger to Day 5/Tuesday in
portions of southern/central New Mexico and southwest Texas ahead of
an approaching cold front.
...Day 6/Wednesday - Day 8/Friday: Intermountain West...
Behind the dry and breezy conditions across the southern/central
Intermountain West, upper-level ridging is expected to develop mid
to late next week with increasing temperatures. The dry and breezy
conditions across the central Intermountain West followed by above
normal temperatures should accelerate fuel curing, with some areas
in the Great Basin having well above normal fine fuel loading that
could cure and become receptive to ignition/spread quickly. Current
forecast guidance indicates that moisture will move west and north
into the Southwest and Colorado Rockies late next week, bringing the
possibility of isolated dry thunderstorms. Additionally, residual
Pacific moisture may remain under the ridge resulting in chances of
thunderstorms across portions of the central Intermountain West.
However, there remains too much forecast uncertainty to include
probabilities for dry thunderstorms at this time.
...Day 3/Sunday - Day 5/Tuesday: central/south Florida...
Near record KBDI and ERC-Y values remain across portions of central
and south Florida and recent fire activity all indicate the
potential for ignition and spread, given elevated to locally
critical winds and RH. However, there is not enough confidence in
the collocation of dry/breezy conditions to issue 40% areas for
portions of central/south Florida through early next week. Locally
elevated conditions remain possible away from sea breeze
thunderstorms.
..Nauslar.. 05/31/2024
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