ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 211815

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0115 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

   Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

   The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and only minor
   adjustments were made with this update.

   ..Weinman.. 05/21/2024

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0222 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024/

   ...Synopsis...
   A broad upper trough will encompass the central and western CONUS
   Wednesday. The strongest mid-level flow is expected to extend from
   the Southern Plains through the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes
   regions, and across the Pacific Northwest near the base of mid-level
   cyclone. A deeply mixed air mass will remain present over the Desert
   Southwest, while a cold front dives southward into portions of the
   Southern and High Plains. Further west across portions of NM and AZ,
   sustained westerly surface winds near 15 mph are expected where
   increasingly receptive fuels and single-digit RH will be present.
   Localized wind speeds may briefly approach or exceed 20 mph across
   southern NM Wednesday afternoon, but the probability of this
   occurring for more than 3 hours across a broad region is too low to
   introduce a Critical area at this time.

      

   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 212155

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0455 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

   Valid 231200Z - 291200Z

   ...Southwest into the southern High Plains...

   ...Days 3-6/Thursday-Sunday...
   On Day 3/Thursday, moderate west-southwesterly midlevel flow in the
   base of a large-scale western-CONUS trough will persist atop a
   dry/deeply mixed air mass over the Southwest and southern High
   Plains. This will favor another day of dry/breezy conditions across
   the region. Over southern NM, a modest pressure gradient peripheral
   to a deepening lee cyclone will aid in slightly stronger surface
   winds amid single-digit RH. Locally critical conditions are expected
   here, though confidence in the development of widespread critical
   surface winds is too low to introduce higher probabilities at this
   time. 

   West-southwesterly midlevel flow will gradually strengthen across
   the Southwest on Day 4/Friday, where a warm/dry antecedent air mass
   will remain in place. This will promote a continuation of breezy
   surface winds and low RH across the region, with the strongest
   sustained surface winds (and highest confidence in critical
   conditions) expected over northeast AZ and northwest NM.  

   By Day 5/Saturday, a robust midlevel jet streak embedded in the
   west-southwesterlies will overspread the southern Rockies and
   adjacent High Plains -- where continued warm/dry conditions are
   expected. At the same time, a lee cyclone will deepen over the
   central High Plains, yielding strong sustained surface winds across
   most of NM into west TX. This will favor an expansive area of
   critical conditions across NM, given increasingly dry/receptive
   fuels. Dry/breezy conditions are once again expected across NM on
   Day 6/Sunday, owing to a continuation of moderate west-southwesterly
   flow atop a warm/dry air mass. However, slightly weaker flow aloft
   limits confidence in the development of widespread critical
   conditions -- precluding 70-percent probabilities at this time.

   ..Weinman.. 05/21/2024