350 FXUS65 KBYZ 102357 AFDBYZ Area Forecast Discussion...Updated National Weather Service Billings MT 557 PM MDT Sun Aug 10 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Hazy conditions are expected to re-enter parts of Montana late Monday. Smoke concentrations are expected to be lower than was experienced Sunday. - Mostly dry with a warming trend (80s to mid 90s) through the middle of the week. HeatRisk level 2 out of 4 forecasted for Wednesday. - A lot of uncertainty with what happens for the end of the week. Cool and unsettled is now just about equal chances with hot and dry. Stay tuned to the forecast for more clarity through the early week period. && .DISCUSSION... Through Tuesday Night... Westerly winds are expected to push smoke out of Montana and into the Dakotas this evening and overnight. Monday, an upper level wave to our north will drop into the northern plains. This will bring a weak cold front through the region and create enough forcing for low chances of showers for Miles City and east. This cold front will bring northerly winds increasing the likelihood of smoke returning. Currently however, models are keeping smoke concentrations lower than our current plume. Still, reduced air quality and hazy conditions are possible Monday. 500 mb ridging to our west and troughing to our east will keep the region in northwest flow keeping temperatures in check. Rising heights will allow temperatures to continue to warm into the 80s to low 90s F Monday and Tuesday. Torgerson Wednesday through Saturday... Wednesday is shaping up to easily be the hottest day of the week as there looks to be prominent downslope warming occurring throughout the day. Temperatures are currently forecast in the upper 90s, with a HeatRisk of 2 out of 4 for most of southern MT and northern WY, meaning Wednesday`s conditions will affect those who are sensitive to heat, especially without cooling/hydration, as well as various health systems and industries. For the past couple days we`ve discussed a pattern change occurring for the second half of the week, and while that still looks to be the case, latest ensembles are slowly coming into a solution that provides only a slight relief in temperatures. This is due to the upper trough essentially swinging east just north of the state, and leaving us in a zonal to southwest flow. One item to note though is a strong, low-level southerly push progged to occur over the plains, opening up the window to bring a surge of moisture from the Gulf and into the area, bringing about a sign for some storm potential. This is backed up by a small probability of severe storms occurring these days as indicated through local, machine learning guidance via CSU. While still a 5-10 degree temperature spread for Thursday and into the weekend, overall expect that range to hover around near-normal temperatures just just above normal for this time of year. Vertz && .AVIATION... Surface and slant range visibility will continue to improve this evening over eastern Montana as the smoke moves into the Dakotas. On Monday, a front is expected to bring northerly winds back across the area. With this, isolated showers are possible around KMLS and KBHK, but impacts to the airfields look to be minimal to none. The northerly winds will also bring wildfire smoke back into eastern Montana by late Monday into early Tuesday morning. While smoke concentrations look to be less than today, surface visibility impacts remain possible (moderate chance). Arends && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun ----------------------------------------------------------- BIL 061/087 059/092 063/097 063/090 059/085 061/089 060/091 00/U 00/U 10/U 10/U 21/U 21/U 11/U LVM 052/086 051/091 055/094 055/091 050/087 052/088 052/088 10/U 01/U 11/U 11/U 21/U 11/U 11/U HDN 057/087 057/092 060/098 061/092 059/086 060/091 059/092 10/U 00/U 10/U 10/U 21/U 21/B 10/U MLS 059/085 057/087 063/095 064/091 061/085 063/090 062/091 12/W 00/U 10/U 10/U 21/B 21/B 21/U 4BQ 060/087 058/087 063/095 066/091 063/087 064/089 063/089 01/H 00/U 10/U 10/U 21/U 31/B 21/U BHK 057/084 052/082 058/093 060/090 058/085 058/086 059/086 12/W 00/U 10/U 10/U 21/U 21/B 21/U SHR 054/086 054/089 058/095 060/091 057/085 058/089 056/089 21/U 00/U 11/U 11/U 21/B 21/B 11/U && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. WY...None. && $$ weather.gov/billings