784
FXUS65 KSLC 252135
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
335 PM MDT Fri Jul 25 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Critical fire weather conditions due to gusty winds
and low relative humidity will affect much of Utah Saturday.
Smoke, primarily from a wildfire in northern Arizona, will
continue to track into southern and eastern portions of Utah
through the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Through 12Z/6AM Sunday)...A southwest synoptic flow
is in place throughout southwest Wyoming and Utah. This is
primarily due to a weak shortwave trough near San Francisco and
Oakland, CA. A powerful ridge of high pressure from the southeast
U.S. into the plains is also contributing. This has advected very
dry conditions in, with relative humidity in the single digits
throughout most of southwest Wyoming and Utah. Although with that
are gusts in excess of 20 mph.

The southwest winds have advected wildfire smoke from the Dragon
Bravo fire in northern Arizona into southeast Utah. The dense
smoke will continue for this portion of Utah as southwest flow
lasts through the weekend.

Relative humidity will be similar Saturday, while winds will
increase as the shortwave trough to the west lifts northeast. This
will add roughly 5-10 mph on top of the gusts from Friday. The
strongest winds will be in southwest Wyoming and roughly the
southern half of Utah, with gusts around 30 mph. The combination
will result in critical fire weather conditions.

While the lifting trough will be out of the area Sunday, southwest
synoptic flow will continue with similar single digit minimum
relative humidity. Winds will be slightly lighter than Saturday,
but higher fire danger will continue.

.LONG TERM (After 12Z/6AM Sunday)...There is about a 50/50 split
in the ensemble system members between increasing mid-level
moisture reaching Utah by Tuesday, versus largely shunting any
substantial moisture increase to the east into Colorado. Something
to continue to monitor as a longer duration without precipitation
would worsen drought and fire conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...SLC...VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period.
Winds remain breezy out of the south this afternoon, clocking more
southwesterly after 23z. Winds are expected to become light as they
transition to a typical southeasterly wind after 04z. Increasing
southwesterly flow aloft overnight is expected to bring increased
concentrations of vertically-integrated smoke to the area between
roughly 08-16z. This may yield some hazy skies and perhaps a
degradation in slantwise visibility.

.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions expected at all
regional terminals through the remainder of the period. Wildfire
smoke from the Monroe Canyon and Dragon Bravo fires will continue to
impact the airspace. Increased concentrations vertically-integrated
smoke are expected mainly along and east of the I-15 corridor
overnight into Saturday morning as southwesterly flow aloft
increases. Surface smoke concentrations will be highest across
southeast Utah, with VIS and CIG reductions to MVFR/IFR possible
this afternoon and evening in the vicinity of Lake Powell.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM MDT Saturday for UTZ481>484-
     489-492>496-498.

WY...Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday
     evening for WYZ277.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wilson
LONG TERM...Kruse
AVIATION...Whitlam
FIRE WEATHER...Wilson

For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity