607
FXUS65 KCYS 090010
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
610 PM MDT Tue Oct 8 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Continued dry and warm conditions are expected throughout much
  of the week with elevated fire weather concerns continuing.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 608 PM MDT Tue Oct 8 2024

Allowed the Red Flag Warning to expire on time at 6 PM this
evening. Winds have come down from afternoon peaks and are no
longer expected to reach critical levels. Updates have been
sent.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 216 PM MDT Tue Oct 8 2024

Benign weather pattern will continue through the middle of this
week. A stubborn upper level high will remain near the
Arizona/New Mexico/Mexico border this weekend. An upper level
ridge axis extents northward/poleward from the primary center of
the high to our south. This feature won`t move much over the
next 48 to 72 hours. A weak shortwave trough is drifting
southeast across the Dakotas and western Nebraska today, with
another shortwave drifting east out of the Great Basin Region on
Wednesday. But other than some cloud cover and marginally gusty
winds, these features will have little or no impact on the
region. Expect dry conditions and warm temperatures to continue
through Wednesday and Thursday with a slight increase in low to
midlevel moisture. Although some additional cloud cover is
expected Wednesday and late Thursday associated with the
shortwave, little if any precipitation is forecast. A few
sprinkles are possible for the mountains and adjacent
valleys/high plains each afternoon, but this chance is slim, so
kept POP below 5 percent.

Other than some fire weather concerns across east central
Wyoming on Thursday and some haze/smoke...no other weather
related impacts are expected this week. High temperatures will
trend warmer each day into Thursday, with afternoon highs in the
80s for the eastern plains, and in the mid to upper 70s west of
Interstate 25.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 200 PM MDT Tue Oct 8 2024

Temperatures will be a bit cooler on Friday thanks to a weak cold
front that will bring some colder air from the northeast, along with
some light easterly flow developing Friday afternoon, especially
east of the Front Range. Temperatures will be noticeably cooler
there with highs around 15 degrees cooler than Thursday (but still
slightly above average with highs in the low 70s). Upper level
ridging is still expected to be the dominant feature aloft. A bit of
weak, unorganized lift may be enough to produce some clouds, but dry
air near the surface should prevent rain.

Winds will become briefly westerly again going into Saturday
morning, then becoming northerly Saturday afternoon with a slightly
more potent cold front making its way into the region from the
north. This is again expected to be a dry cold front with very
little for lift aloft. There may be some clouds at times but that`s
about it. Winds are again expected to become east/northeasterly
Saturday afternoon through Saturday night, but with speeds remaining
light. With so much dry air in place and light winds, upslope flow
is not expected to result in any rain. A tightening pressure
gradient may result in some breezy conditions at times this weekend,
but maximum gusts aren`t likely to get much higher than 30 to 35 mph.

Temperatures are expected to remain closer to average early next
week, albeit still slightly above average. There remains model
disagreement among the main upper level features that will drive our
weather early next week, but the general trend is expected to be
surface high pressure over the Dakotas/Nebraska, bringing
east/southeasterly flow east of the Front Range, and more variable
and perhaps breezy conditions in the mountains. If the ECMWF
solution suggesting a far-westward extending trough associated with
a large low over the northeastern CONUS were to become reality,
there could be a small chance for a little light rain, but right
now, the broad consensus among models is to keep things dry, and as
such, PoPs remain only at about 5%.

Regarding smoke conditions in the extended, flow aloft remains
largely northwesterly despite cold air advection at the surface and
some east/south flow at times. This combination will likely lead to
occasional smoke and haze from wildfires to the north and west.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 536 PM MDT Tue Oct 8 2024

VFR conditions are expected overnight with light and variable winds
at most terminals. Smoke and haze from wildfires across Wyoming
could lead to minor visibility reductions at times, but most
smoke should be aloft and not at the surface.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GCC
SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...JDS
AVIATION...SF