254 FXUS63 KMKX 110835 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 335 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Milder temperatures will return today but remaining cool near the lake. Above normal temperatures expected for the weekend. - Rain showers (20-30 percent) are possible late Saturday night into early Sunday evening. - Below normal temperatures will return for Tuesday in the wake of a cold frontal passage on Monday. && .SHORT TERM... Issued 335 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025 Today and Tonight: Much of the mid level cloud cover has shifted to the south along with a shortwave trough extending from the main upper trough over srn Ontario. There is still some pockets of cloud cover upstream via a weak lobe of vorticity approaching central WI. Another weak band of PVA over MN will move across srn WI this afternoon. Overall though, 500 mb heights will rise along with sfc high pressure shifting over srn WI late today and this evening. Partly cloudy skies are forecast with highs in the lower to middle 50s, but 40s near Lake MI. For tnt, mostly clear skies are expected as upper ridging continues. The high will slightly move ewd after 06Z, but good radiational cooling conditions are expected with lows in the lower 30s forecast. Gehring && .LONG TERM... Issued 335 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025 Saturday through Thursday: High pressure will be gradually pushing east of the region on Saturday, with winds turning southerly in response. Highs will be a bit above average, with readings around 60. Highs may be a little cooler near the lake, with southerly flow likely not strong enough to preclude lake breeze development by afternoon. Mid and high clouds will start to increase Saturday afternoon as warm advection pushes into the region from the west. Scattered thunderstorms may develop overnight across southern Minnesota and northeastern Iowa, pushing eastward into Wisconsin early Sunday morning. The morning round may become more focused across central and northern Wisconsin as the low level jet noses northward, but additional scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible later in the day as a shortwave and associated surface low approach from the west. Strong low and mid level warm advection on Sunday will favor warmer temperatures compared to Saturday, with mid 60s currently most likely. However, these highs will be very dependent on the amount of clouds and precipitation that is around during the day. A cold front will sweep across the area late Sunday night/early Monday morning, with brisk west-northwest winds advecting a colder airmass into the region Monday and Tuesday. Cold advection rain/snow showers will also be possible during this time. The upper level ridge should start to build back into the region mid to late week, with temperatures becoming more mild in response. Boxell && .AVIATION... Issued 335 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025 Areas of 2-5SM BR and isolated ground fog through 13Z today. Sct050-060 clouds will continue today then mostly clear tnt and Sat AM. Gehring && .MARINE... Issued 335 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025 Light north winds will continue through this morning then becoming light and variable this afternoon and tonight as high pressure of 30.3 inches settles over Lake Michigan. Light to modest southerly winds will then develop Saturday becoming breezy on Sunday as the high shifts eastward ahead of an approaching low. Low pressure of 29.4 inches will then move eastward through the Upper Peninsula of Michigan Sunday night into Monday, dragging a cold front across Lake Michigan. West to northwest winds Monday into Tuesday may reach gale force behind the low and associated cold front. A Small Craft Advisory may be needed Sunday into Sunday evening from Sheboygan to Winthrop Harbor due to breezy south winds and building waves. Gehring && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.twitter.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee