086 FXUS63 KMKX 082006 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 306 PM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Only 10-20% chances for a stray shower to redevelop behind the cold front this evening. Dry weather likely tonight. - Scattered showers with a few embedded rumbles of thunder expected on Monday, with the majority of this activity confined to 11 AM - 5 PM, becoming isolated thereafter. A few storms with small hail will be possible. - Temperatures climb to the 70s Tuesday, then to the 80s Wednesday, with mostly dry weather. - Occasional shower / thunderstorm chances return for the second half of the week (Wednesday evening and onwards). && .SHORT TERM... Issued 305 PM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025 Tonight through Monday night: The cold front has reach southeastern WI and will soon move out over the lake, with only a few convective showers (which may evolve into very weak thunderstorms) lingering east of Janesville at the moment. Other than that, only 10-20% chances for isolated rain showers to redevelop behind the front later this afternoon / early this evening. Other than that, dry weather likely tonight. Monday is looking noticeably cooler behind the front (highs in the 60s, all areas). An upper-level low aloft will seed development of scattered showers with a few embedded rumbles of thunder on Monday, developing in the mid morning hours, peaking in the afternoon, then becoming isolated after 5 PM CDT. Storms are expected to be sub-severe at this time, though a storm with small hail cannot be ruled out (given the cool temperatures aloft and mid-level lapse rates). Sheppard && .LONG TERM... Issued 305 PM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025 Tuesday through Sunday: Tuesday and Wednesday are looking mostly dry, with sfc high pressure dominant southeast of the region and 500mb heights gradually rising through the period, with a light southwesterly breeze lifting daytime high temps to the 70s Tuesday, then to the 80s Wednesday. The progression of the 500mb ridge then stalls, setting the stage for some minor shortwave perturbations to pass overhead for the second half of this week (Wednesday evening and onwards), accompanied by occasional shower / thunderstorm chances. A weak easterly component to the surface wind field (off of Lake Michigan) coupled with the shower / storm chances and associated cloud cover will likely constrain daytime high temps to the 70s, or even the upper 60s in eastern WI counties. Sheppard && .AVIATION... Issued 305 PM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025 A few showers and weak thunderstorms currently east of Janesville tracking east (associated with the cold front which has nearly cleared the region), with scattered / broken CB based at 3,000 ft. Other than that, only ~10-20% chances for showers to redevelop later this afternoon / evening behind the front. VFR clouds (sheared off of convection to our south, over 20 kft) present at the moment, gradually decreasing in coverage into tonight. Light west winds tonight, becoming breezy for the daytime hours of Monday. Scattered showers and a few rumbles of thunder expected Monday, developing in the late morning, achieving scattered coverage roughly 11 AM to 5 PM, then becoming isolated thereafter. No severe storms expected at this time, though a few storms with small hail will be possible. Sheppard && .MARINE... Issued 305 PM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025 Broad low pressure will linger over Ontario Canada and the upper Great Lakes through the first half of this week. An associated cold front will finish crossing the lake early this evening. Until then, widespread rain showers are expected, with a few thunderstorms possible over the southern quarter of the lake. Behind the front, light to modest southwest winds are expected Tonight through Monday, gradually veering due west into Monday night. Scattered showers and thunderstorms expected across the lake Monday afternoon and evening. Mostly quiet weather for Tuesday into Wednesday with a light to modest southwest breeze. Sheppard && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.twitter.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee